Everyone, I am going home to see my family next week (in St. Louis) but will try and log in from home a few times late next week after the market gets going again. Everyone take care and have a great holiday.

Italm - we'll see how this plays out!

I know exactly how you're feel'in Blueman When a pair has been rising for so long, it's only human nature to think it can go on even longer.... Recent price action is telling me something else though... Only a matter of time and we shall see

Hey Jamie,
Thanx for the alret. Merry Christmas and all the best.

This is a possible long term view of AUD/JPY. The rally that began October of 2005 has completed a five wave impulse move. When you break it down, all of the setbacks have occured in three waves and all rallies have unfolded in five wave patterns. Waves three and five look to be extended. Wave (5) of larger five has rallied in five waves to a point just above the previous wave three high and has formed a double top. So based on this info, I think that AUD/JPY is headed for a long decline down to possibly the 50.0% Fib level at 81.66. That's currently a move of 1500 points or so. So there should be plenty of opportunities to short this one on the way down.

The most recent decline from the 29 October 2007 high has come in five waves and the rally that followed is corrective in a three wave pattern. I posted a chart a week or so ago showing a decline in what I thought might be wave 'C' of a correction(Post #2252). But now based on the long term pattern, I think the impending decline will be wave three of large wave 'A' of the long term correction that's taking place now.

I've heard a lot of talk lately in the news about how Japan's economy is getting stronger and how that country is starting to do some good things which are making the JPY strengthen against other currencies. Add to that the bearish long-term view from dailyfx on AUD/USD, and you can see that the technicals and the fundamentals are aligning pretty well in favorof the bearish side of things. So there is pretty much a green light for the AUD/JPY to make a pretty nice run to the downside in the coming months.

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Here's my thoughts on the long term structure in GBP/CHF. The rally off of 1.7594 that began way back in November of 1995 is in a very clear three wave pattern that peaked in April of 2000. Since then, there has been a decline and a rally that brings us to the present. The most recent rally is in a three wave pattern as well. So, since both rallies have been in three wave patterns, I believe the major trend is still in a downward direction. If price is indeed heading lower, then we should see the lows of both corrections taken out at some point.

I know that people in this forum aren't position traders and probably don't take signals from the long term charts, but I do think it's important to know the overall direction of the markets before you can take any short term signals. I compare this to taking a road trip from New Jersey to California. You wouldn't depart Jersey while looking at a Los Angeles City map would you? No, probably not. You would first take a look at a map of the whole country to get the best overall route for the trip. Then, as you started your journey you would look at the map more in depth state by state so you could fine tune the route. So back to trading then- By knowing the overall direction of the markets, GBP/CHF specifically, we can see that that trend there is definately down and that shorting this market is the best idea.

So looking at the daily chart now, I think that price is ready to break lower in wave (5) of larger wave three. The 161.8% Fib of large wave one (2.4966-2.3758) is 1954 points. Since large wave three began at 2.4426, the target for wave three therefore is down at 2.2472. OK? Now into wave three itself. Wave one (2.4426-2.3487) was 939 points long. I think wave four has unfolded in some sort of Irregular Flat or something similiar and may be complete now or will be pretty soon if it's not. So the high of wave four is at 2.3361. Waves one and five would equal each other down at a price of 2.2422. That price is very close to the 161.8% Fib for large wave three at 2.2472. That's a difference of only 50 points.

I think that there is an opportunity now to short wave five, and then once a large correction comes out there should be another opportunity to get back in for the next leg lower.

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Hi Everyone!

I am new to this forum and wanted to introduce myself. I do have one question about Elliot Wave counting. Does the second wave following the previous wave have to match some common fibo retracement value for the wave count to be valid? For example, if you have wave one, then does wave 2 have to hit some common fibo retracement value of wave 1 for the wave count to be vaid?

thanks,

PipRunner

One of the things I like most about the currencies is the way they are correlated with other markets around the world. I think it's pretty cool to be able to look at all of these different charts and see how they move around with each other. As everybody here knows, some of the big things currency traders watch for are the relationship between Gold/Oil and the commodity currencies. I've been watching the price of gold recently as it works higher and using that to trade in USD/CAD. Obviously as the price of Gold/Oil increases, CAD gets stronger against other currencies. The chart I attached here shows how that's been the case lately. While not exactly correlated, the two charts are extremely close. A reversal in one chart led to a reversal in the other within just a few days at the most. Which one comes first? Did the chicken come before the egg, or did the egg come before the chicken? It seems that the USD/CAD has led Gold by about a day or so on the last few market reversals. Well currently, the USD/CAD seems to have rolled over again and is heading lower. At the same time, Gold looks to be working out a fourth wave triangle, and is set to thrust higher soon. So if we can get Gold to pop higher it would then confirm the move lower in USD/CAD, and make for a pretty nice trade.

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yess,i agree with you

Usd Yen

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Onward !............... stop stalling , Keep moving !

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I did not break the low therefore I am considering it as I have it. In the grand scheme, it doesn't really matter though.

Now, I am actually leaving...to the airport

welcom PipRunner,i am begginner,i just find this... hope help u.....
Second waves — Second waves often retrace so much of wave one that most of the advancement up to that time is eroded away by the time it ends. This is especially true of call option purchases, as premiums sink drastically in the environment of fear during second waves. At this point, investors are thoroughly convinced that the bear market is back to stay. Second waves often produce downside non-confirmations and Dow Theory "buy spots," when low volume and volatility indicate a drying up of selling pressure.
from www.elliottwave.com
happy Xmas

Although it doesn't look like an impulse.... We know markets aren't perfect.... Anyway.. enough babble on the small things ! lol ... Hope your Christmas is good Jaime

Merry Christmas everyone... Catch you after the holdiay

Good Call Market

We just may go a bit higher though ,,,, be ready !