oh yes Brad ..... can see it much better now

its small enough for all to see now ............ thanx alot !

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The Euro got slammed today ..............
That Euro was extremely over-bought and got what was cominmg to it today

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Us Recession will be confirmed in Euro Prices ............

Let us not clear the multi-year highs that were made in 2007 in the Euro ,
or we are in trouble here in the US .........

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This is also an election year
the Us Dollar rarely slumps during recession years , ,,,,,,,,,,,

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Guppy , ..............

Beware of this market crazy price swings with large pips amounts in either direction

Remember this chart ?

Original Post---- #2266
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/...235#post142235
.................................................. .................................................. ..............
It was posted in here earlier this month for all in here to see---- NO HINDSITE !

Price today has now pushed down into the End of a Wave 5

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Usd/Yen

Coming Soon to a theater near you ? ............

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The long and the short term in EUR/USD are performing just as expected. On the long term, the rally that began 12June2007 is very clearly an impulsive move and is currently working higher in wave five. Looking at the chart below you can see that wave two was a complex correction and wave four was a simple correction. That follows the Elliott Wave concept in the way of alternation. If wave two is simple then wave four should be complex and vice versa. That concept plays out perfectly here. Wave three extended very nicely in five waves and ended just a frogs hair above the 261.8% Fib Extension. And now here we are at the start of the new year as price is extending higher in large wave five. The large wave five began right on the 38.2% Fib Retracement of wave three; as is usually the case according to Elliott Wave concepts.

Looking to the short term now, wave one of (v) is complete and the wave two retracement is in play now. Currently price is being supported by the 38.2% Fib Retracement of wave one, so we should consolidate for a bit and then see price drop down to the 50.0% Fib Retacement of wave one; again as it usually does according to Elliott Wave rules. The way that waves one and two are forming, will also cause an inverse head and shoulders pattern which is a very typical formation when wave five begins.

Now for a trade setup: I'm looking to buy the 50.0% Fib Retracement of wave one which is at 1.4527. Stop Loss will be just below wave one at around 1.4300. The target for the trade will be the 161.8% Fib Extension of wave one which is 703 points.

As far as fundamentals go, the weaker US Dollar is keeping our economy afloat because foreign companies and buyers can get US goods at very cheap prices. The Fed has pretty much given the go-ahead for the USD to continue to go down.

So with technicals and fundamentals aligned, all there is to do is manage your EUR/USD longs and watch your bank account grow. -Happy Trading.

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Good Morning Everyone....

Here is my take on the EURUSD. This is actually the Pair where I entered a Long trade during the last trading Hour of my Dec 31 2007 which I have carried thu to 2008.

Entered at 1.4601 of which 1.4595 was supposed to be my preferred entry level.

Anyway, I was trying to dissect this pairs EW count and here is briefly what i think. Charts to follow...

I believe EURUSD is in a wave 4 now. Wave 2 was more like a sideways expanding wave 1.3851 - 1.3360. So I will be expecting a Zigzag wave 4 from 1.4966 .

Wave 4 normally hits the 38.2% retracement level which has been achieved now from 1.4966 down to 1.3360 @ 1.4309. If you check further, Zigzags typically exhibit C=A which in this case the leg from 1.4966 down to 1.4309 also exhibits. So we have a potential end to wave 4 now. Note that it is still just a potential.

Looking at TIME, wave 2 took 10 hours to finish. while this potential wave 4 took 15 hours to accomplish. To me this seems a very likely end of wave 4 where Price and time factors are considered.

Therefore, I will play this out looking at the move from 1.4309 as origin of a wave 5 UP.

Now looking at the move from 1.4309 up to 1.4747...... I see this as a waves 123 already where wave 3 finished off at 1.4747 and price is retracing for wave 4 which approximately should end at 38.2%. which incidentally is at 1.4594.... How about that? anyway... we will soon know if this EURUSD move will follow a classic textbook scenario.

If it does, then EURUSD should now be on its way up to develop wave 5 of Wave equivalent to wave 5535 n my chart. before we see a retracement again.

This means thatthe move up which will probably take us above 150 is just the end of wave 5 of one of the many subdivisions of the final wave 5 of EURUSD going up.

This Bullish scenario started from 0.8225 in October 2000 which is estimated to reach 1.7060 by year 2010.. Yes that tough and Bullish for this Pair

Happy and Profitable Trading Everyone.

EG

Hello Everyone,
i have the same count on EUR/USD however my chart reflects that we r in W4 with abc formation and thus euro is to slump to 1.3877 to print wave C/4. The problem about EW as u all know is that it is very subjective and we can all count the same pair/chart in different ways; however, it is one of the best methods in trading imo.
Anyway my chart is attached and time will tell.
P.S a rise above 1.4750 will void my count.

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Hi Justy

Remember that there is always another point of view !

A wave- count can be opposite of what you are thinking and still be
in the bounds Elliot Waves rules as you have so eloquently said in your above post .

It's good to see that you are passionate about the posture of the Eur/Usd though

You have mapped it out well so all can see ........ Well Done !
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Also ,
Please do come back and post the results of your Euro/Usd setup in the coming days .

There are to may traders who posts their thoughts ,
but never seem to come back and post what happen their Original Post ....
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The reason to come back and post the result is to see how your charting visually
and how you are doing over the passage of time ...

its the same in most of these type of forums it seems
people just don't seem come back and post their results .

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
as for me
- I try my best to post all results of my calls -
Good , Bad , an the Ugly

You have seen the charts in here -
No one should be a shamed or feel embarrassed because they were wrong on a call , Ever

Who among us is perfect ?
Who among us gets it right every time ?

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Further dissection of the EW Count in the lower TF, it looks like it would go for the 50% retrace of wave 3 allowed for wave 4.

So now I am looking at entering a long trade from that 50% level approximately @ 1.4516 - 1.4531 Range.

You will see on the chart that this is based on 3 Fibonacci Based Strategies I am using.

First is the FIB Extention Tool where I consider FE 425 as Potential end of an Impulse wave.

Second is The Potential relationship of Wave C to Wave A . Where Wave C = 1.618 of Wave A.

3rd the Wave 4 retracement of Wave 3 which can be between 38.2 - 50% and even up to 61.8%

Beyond this.... I will have to re assess my wave count.

EG

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ok , Justy 10125

I must say , your charts are impressive - really !

-but in this game of trading
It is truly a battle between the Bulls and the Bears
There is always a Bullish Outlook
and
There is always a Bearish Outlook

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Just always keep in mind
that what makes a market place is a Difference of Opinion

the main reason why traders should come in to a forum is to see opinions ,
even if they are different to what they think is happening in the marketplace .

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////


With that said ,

Here is a thinking for the Usd /Yen ( Longer - Term )

There appears to be " Double Bottom " that has occurred ......


It is only a Probability , .............It is not Cast in Stone !
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If you don't believe in this observation , It's ok

Step up to the Plate :

Just post you chart and state your case !
Time will then tell All ........
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Eg888
sorry to bother you ., but your charts are just a little to small now

is it possible to make these just above chart a little bigger ?
not as big as before , but just bigger a little bit more

( Trying to read all your notes on your charts )
hope you understand

Thanx in advance

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Here looking at that Guppy ,again

Usd/Gby

we may be looking at an End of a Wave 3 from this perspective

- Price is extremely oversold as you already know .
Sellers have been having a party with this market lately


Who among us will pick the exact bottom ?

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Marketwavez...
I thought I could consider myself a bit savy when it came to graphics. However, posting charts has trumped that down as I have been unsuccessful controlling size of my charts as you have seen. The charts above have the same settings as before on my MT4 platform and I have not changed them. I do not know why they suddenly turned a lot smaller than we would have hope it would.

Will try again later. But first I need to post something where I believe I have to correct my earlier analysis on the EURUSD.

===============
I realized that I placed wave 2 to be a zigzag and wave 4 to be a Zigzag also which normally should not be the case.

Checking wave 2 again, I think it cannot be a Zigzag but a Sideways expanding corrective wave. I cannot find a reference classifying this pattern so I will classify it as Complex. This will allow me to pursue the idea that wave 4 will be a Zigzag wave.

Therefore if wave 4 is considered as a Zigzag wave, the move down from 1.4747 to 1.4581 may initially be thought of by me as a Zigzag. However when we look at the Potential relationship between what is considered as Wave C and Wave A, we will note that wave "C" is about 300% of wave "A", which I think is not within the Guideline of EW Principle.

So I will much rather consider that as a wave 1 and a wave 3, where now we see wave 3 finished and wave 4 developing to most likely reach 1.4638. Then expecting wave 5 to develop as it goes down again more like a w5=w1 to give more room for the actual Zigzag Big wave 4 @ 1.4563.

Once this Leg A ( 5 wave structure ) is finished, we now refer to the structure of A to lead us to expect what wave B possibly can be. In this case, since wave A is a 5 wave structure, then Wave B is expected to go up around 50% of Wave A and become a FLAT or A Triangle. a FLAT has a 335 structure while a Triangle has a 33333 structure.

Then we will see this pair going down again and lower than the previous low of ( which probably would be around 1.4563 ).

Okay, if I go on with this rambling, and make a sketchy forecast of the potential route of EURUSD using the Guidelines, then here goes....

Leg A finishes at 1.4563 then goes up by 50% ( @ 1.4655 ) developing a FLAT or a Triangle wave B then Falls again to finish wave C as C=100% of A (@ 1.4471) or 161.8% of A (@ 1.4357 ).

Now that is how I see it with my EW Count for EURUSD.


Now to go to the Technical side, to me this wave count fits better now as 4 hour stochastics is just crossing down Level 80. That to me means that Wave 4 is far from being over. The Zigzag concept will most likely provide that time to allow it to get oversold and crossback Upwards of the Level 20. Thus the beginning of the actual Wave 5 UP.

I would most likely be setting my Short trade @ 1.4655 now. That is if I see
Price stop at around 1.4563. Better to trade the Wave C down.

EG

I am posting this analysis here to hopefully draw some constructive criticism from the more experienced elliotticians on this forum as to how I applied various ways of analyzing the wave counts on this pair.

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Hi Eg888
i think the moderators are reading this thread and some how
changed the settings to automatically adjust your charts size

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its to small now - Still can't read your notes ...........

------------------------------------------------

Please try this ...............

Follow these directions to post a chart.......
( you should be using a screen capture )..........
-----------------------------------------------------------
Having difficulty posting your chart ?

Maybe you don't know how to post a chart ?....

--------------------------------------------------------
Here's how
HOW TO POST A CHART....


Step#1 - Go to this website and download this file
................( Don't worry it's free )
.................http://www.snapfiles.com/get/mwsnap.html

Step#2 - Open your chart program and make your chart
...............( Draw your Trendlines , Wave-counts ,write comments, etc )

Step#3 -Now open the file from above that you just downloaded .


Step#4 - Open the file and look for the small Red dotted Square
...............( Upper left hand corner of your screen )

Step#5 - After left clicking clicking on the red square you should be able
............ to see the chart you created , Now keep your finger on the left
.............click of your mouse and drag the rectangle around your entire chart .

Step#6- After dragging the rectangle around your chart ,
.............Now simply ,release tyour finger off of the left click of your mouse
.............( you have now screen captured your chart )

Step#7 .... Now click on the File Icon
( upper left hand corner of your screen )

Step#8 - Give your chart a name and save it to your Desktop
.............( or save it to your My Documents folder on your computer )

Step# 9 - Go to the Dailyfx thread where you want to post a comment in
............. and press th blue color "Post Reply Button "
..............( Lower left hand corner of your screen )

Step# 10 - Now write your text , -Write your comments

Step# 11 - Click the icon that says " Manage Attachments "
.................( Lower left hand corner of your screen )

Step# 12 - Scroll through and find your file of the chart you created
..................in the desktop or My Documents

Step# 13..... Click on " Upload "

Step# 14 .............. Your Done ! ..... Be Happy !...

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Here is an alternative count on the 1hour chart which is less complicated but would seem to land us almost the same range as my previous wave count.

In the previous EW Count , wave 4 is not allowed to overlap with wave 1 end so it must not reach FE 161.8 @ 1.4357. The most it should go down to is 1.4367 which is wave 1 end in the First count.

But on the alternative count, Price for Wave 2 may go down as low as 1.4309 which is the origin of wave 1.

Price going lower than 1.4309 will invalidate my 2 proposed counts.

EG

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