Jamie #3 questions

# 1 Why is taking you so long to respond to a this new member ?
----- He probably ran off and left the forum by now

# 2 Where is the PM box to send a PM to another member ?
( We really need a Private Message box system in here )

# what is your PM - E-mail ? - How can we send you a message directly ?
( You are the moderator and you are needed at times )

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I do not know who this new member was. I was on vacation and was not moderating the forum during that time.

We do not have a PM box but I will bring that up with the appropriate people.

If there is anything that anyone wants to send me directly, then send it to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

EURUSD Textbook scenarios I was proposing yesterday did not pan out as I was expecting.

I will have to get back to my counting. Wave 4 up scenario was invalidated while Wave 2 down also was invalidated.

Alternation scenario was also invalidated. My thinking now is that I must have made a wrong reference for wave 2 to assume/expect a zigzag (bigger zigzag on this proposed wave 4.

Even the Guideline of wave A structure leading wave B structure based on my understanding is now in a cloud.

I will have to study some more.

EG

A while back I posted my thoughts on GBP/CHF. I have attached another chart showing the progress of that trade. Price is either doing one of two things. It may be finishing up an extended third wave or it may have just finished an A-B-C corrctive pattern. Either way, the near term outlook for GBP/CHF is bullish. I'll be looking for a small five wave rally and a corrective setback at which point I'll be bullish for a little while. I'll hold the trade until price rallies into former wave four congestion (2.3300-2.2700). At that point I'll see how price unfolds before I determine wether we are looking to see price fall to new lows or if we will see price continue to rally.

As far as my original trade: That was in post #2329. I has a short setup from 2.2900 with a target at 2.2472. Price has declined to that level and then some in the last few days.

So now that trade has finished, I'm looking to get bullish for a quick trade up to about 2.2700 or so.

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Thanks a lot market,me2

I just discovered why I was having a hard time with that wave 4 count. I just realized that the MT4 platform I was using for my EW Charting most likely had an anomaly in their data.

That was the reason why I could not accpet that the move from 1.4747 down to 1.4581 was not done yet and could not be a Zigzag ABC. That was because wave C then was already 300% of wave A which is way over the 161.8% max to be considered still as a Zigzag.

While reviewing Price for the technical analysis side on a different MT4 platform, there I realized that wave 4 was actually a Zigzag with C being 161.8% of wave A. thus satisfying the requirement.

So now , using channelling.... I see price to be going up for the sub wave 5 of 5 where it is encountering support at the Daily Pivot level holding it for sub wave 4 of 5 which turned out to be a Bullish Flag.

EG

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You asked: "Not sure what you are saying about the touch of the lines ....."

You said: "I'm trying to believe in your secondary long term Usd/Yen

the only thing thats stopping me is that price is not touching the upper resistance line
at the end of the Larger wave C

I understand that price formation doesn't have to be perfect
but price is just to far away from that upper resistance line of the triangle that you have illustrated today."

I then asked u why do you want the upper trendline to be touched at wave A, C and E perfectly as in the patterns u have kindly attached? And I also said that IF u would interpret that as a bearish triangle (which can be justifid assuming the price action up to the extreme low at 1995, then price overshooting the upper trnedline at E is a good indication, the up-move might be over - that's where I would start looking for a short position. I always love the triangles to overshoot the line and then not go anywhere close to C wave. Currencies do that often, commodities often fail to reach the trendline in E waves, cause their moves are stronger - for the most recent example of that check gold price action 18-nov-2007 to 17-dec-2007, which was a great buy for the thrust upwards out of the triangle.

As for what I was telling u - attaching a chart of UJ.

Good day all.

Picolo

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As for your posted patterns - second from the right column - descending top, flat bottom.

P.S. although personally I would rather think we are having a large B wave triangle prior to a thrust higher for a C. This whole a-b-c-d-e shifts one apex to the right, so to say, making for a bullish triangle. And we would possibly ho higher in the C later on. Also a possibility.

Hey guys,
I understand why everybody is bullish the Euro by looking at the Eur/Usd chart but Im going to go out on a limb and say the Euro is about to take a HUGE fall. I can't seem to shake this feeling that a bear trap is setting up. Had we gone over 4750 today, even by 1 pip, I might have been as bullish as everybody here. Assuming the decline from the top was an ABC where the breech of wave B at 4750 would indeed be bullish. However, we never made it. I believe todays high was 4749. Why didnt it go to 4751 and then pull back. Heres another clue why I think its the end of the line for the Euro. As bearish as the pound is right now, take a look at the chart. This is a weekly chart of the Eur/Gbp but daily momentum has slowed dramatically. A drop belows today's low is the intitial signal of a top for at least several days.

Italm31

Here is why I am still Bullish with the EURUSD.

I just saw this now so I will wait to see if this does develop as I think it would.

EURUSD Update

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Barrier Triangle

I am changing my view for that wave 2 from side ways expanded to a Zigzag with C = .618 of A. Thit it would lead to expecting a Complex corrective wave for Wave 4 which can be FLAT or a Triangle. In this case, it is possible to develop into a barrier triangle.

Bullish Flag over extended and Now looks like Wave 4 is forming a big Barrier Triangle.

Watch out for a possible throwunder which could be a False Breakout to the Down side.

Barrier triangles in this form normally are Bullish as the Textbook would say.

Now it makes more good sense why it is best to wait for a breakout at 1.4750.


EG

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To anyone following this one... it's been a cutie past week.

Where do you people put it from the 251 top? I'd say it's a iii of 3 of C down now targets being in the 200 vicinity? Views?

Pic

Hi marketwavez2, what is you short-term look at the Gbp/Yen?

I see this pair currently completing Wave 1 of 3 of 5. Stacked more longs @ 1.4710. If correct, the next move is the big one. Near term support is in the 1.4680 area.

anybody can help me to count weekly gbp correctlly........thanks frnds
blueman

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The smaller term wave C correction of the 5 wave bull cycle from 1.4581 is nearing completion. I am calling this wave cycle 1 (2) of 3 of 5. Price should return near 1.4700 and maybe as low as 1.4650 (doubt it, more like 1.4680). I am looking to get aggressively bullish in this area.