Hey Ben,
I couldn't agree with you more regarding the kiwi. I think all crosses against the dollar are about to fall (except Yen). Most have already done so except euro and kiwi yet despite that, we still have record number of dollar bears. Talk about allowing the media to influence us! Anyways, your right about the kiwi. My count as us in wave III down as well which should give us a target of 7100.

hi italm,

the move's accelerating

i dunno if we're begining a big wave III or C, but anyway, the objective minimum is interesting in both cases : 0.75

I agree with you guys as well concering the Kiwi...I have been writing about this for a while. However, just because the Kiwi count is bearish does not mean that everything else is.

good call Ben...keep up the good work!

Jamie,
As I stated the other day, something with the Euro just isn't right.How could all other crosses fall against the dollar while the Euro is rising. What makes the Euro so special? The only thing I could think of is the Euro is pegged as the "anti-dollar" and the media has already counted the dollar all but gone and crowned the Euro is the next King! (Just ask Giselle...she should know right?...lol) With all these traders listening to bloomberg and Cnn, and every analysit on the face of the planet, thats the only thing keeping the Euro from falling. We all know that can't last. Sooner or later, Euro buyers will run out. Im betting it will be sooner. Much sooner!

Everything you say is correct but the most important thing to me is the wave structure. At this point, the most probable count is bullish until at least 1.52/1.53. Not to mention, COT data shows that traders are actually very long the US dollar and commercial hedgers are very short the dollar...always line with the commercials when commercials and specs diverge significantly. Keep in mind the quote from Keynes...."marktes can remain illogical far longer than you can remain solvent"...

even better is a quote from my favorite book of all time..Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (it is the fictionalized biography of one the Street's all time geatest speculators...Jesse Livermore)...anyway the quote is

“The trend is evident to a man who has an open mind and reasonably clear sight, for it is never wise for a speculator to fit his facts to his theories.” (page 122)

If we just look at the rally from the June low at 1.3261, it is clear that a 5th wave is needed to complete the rally. At this point, my target is 1.5277..which is a fibo extension

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Well Jamie,
I have to admit, you make a compelling argument but the wa I see it, following your count, we have not even reached the extreme of wave 3. That means years of Euro gains. Will all other crosses continue to fall while the Euro keeps rising, I have a hard time seeing that. Also, Im not crazy about your wave II (after the first 5 waves). It looks forced to me. It does not match price projections nor time projections that wave 2 are suppose to bring about not to mention psycologically. It jsut doesn't make sense...to me anyways!

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If you can't see the dollar declining for a few more years then maybe this chart will help you. This is a monthly USD Index chart back to the early 70's. Might a huge 5 wave advance had ended in 1985 had currencies been allowed to free float in the middle of the 1900's? If so, then wave C of the large A-B-C is still underway AND the decline is in wave 3 of C now...which makes sense as the EURUSD has actually accelerated recently. If wave C is to equal wave A in % terms, then this decline could extend to 62.75 in USD index terms. That corresponds to about 1.7800 in the EURUSD. Sounds crazy but most correct forecasts do sound crazy at some point.

Also, as per your thinking that wave II is forced; the count follows all of Elliott's rules and even satisifes the guideline of ending in the area of the previous 4h wave (although not near the terminus).

Do I hope that this count is wrong...absolutely! After all, I am a US citizen and I do get paid in dollars. BUT...it is not my job to be on the bull side or bear side..it is my job to be on the right side.

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wOw ..............

Talk about " Shock and Awe "......

Look at what just happened will you l

How about that ?

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Elliott Waves - they are always there ........
The foundation is always built into price

Forget about News and waiting for Reports to come out

The Evidence is always in the charts :
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Thats great Jamie. Awesome argument for the bears side. Now do me a favor. Be an objective spectular, take off your bear glasses for just one second, put on some bull glasses and tell me if this count is at all possible. If not, why not? I already told you why I don't like your count, now can you please tell me why my count is totally off base. Am I breaking any rules? Just humor me if you will for 1 min please.

I wonder if it wasnt a C wave we made...

i bought half of my short position...

Jamie your chart is implying a Recession.... !
( but for how much longer ? )
Americans are already starting to want to get paid in Euros .

What if this turns into a trend ? ........How Patriotic is that ?

and will the British Pound finally join the unified Euro effort also ?

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All the reasons that I just mentioned and because guidelines say that in a flat, wave B is not more than 140% longer than A. Sure, both counts are POSSIBLE, but the bearish one seems more PROBABLE. There is no reason to take this personally, which I feel like you are beginning to do.

What American wants to get paid in Euros?