|
|
 |
|
08-15-2007, 11:11 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 114
|
|
|
Hi Jamie, could you do an EW analysis on Usd/Chf, it looks to me that the whole decline from 1.2475 to 1.1815 is a 5 wave structure on the 4hr chart, which means that the current rally is probably the A wave, I am not too sure about it though but it does look possible.
|
08-15-2007, 04:02 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 114
|
|
|
I hope Jamie can help me to point out if I am right or wrong, Cad/Chf has been giving me a big headache, we're in what looks like a wave 4 looking at the weekly chart, the current correction is a big headache, just wanted to hear Jamie's opinions, hope this wont give you a big headache.
|
08-16-2007, 07:42 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 163
|
|
|
Jamie,
We almost reached your 151.66 target on the EURJPY. What do you expect next ?
Is this a correction of the 150.74-169.00 move, and expect the uptrend to resume ?
Thanks.
Serge
|
08-16-2007, 08:44 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 221
|
|
hi all
why the wave from 1.3850 to 1.3620 in euro is wave 1 as jamie label why is not wave A still?is it impulsive or three waves?
blueman
|
08-16-2007, 09:02 AM
|
|
Moderator
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,341
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by JohanS
Hi Jamie, could you do an EW analysis on Usd/Chf, it looks to me that the whole decline from 1.2475 to 1.1815 is a 5 wave structure on the 4hr chart, which means that the current rally is probably the A wave, I am not too sure about it though but it does look possible.
|
What time frame are you looking at? There are wave counts at all different degrees of trend.
|
08-16-2007, 09:07 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 163
|
|
|
Jamie,
The USDCAD breached into the high of the previous wave 1 at 1.0698 ? What does that imply ?
Serge
|
08-16-2007, 09:18 AM
|
|
Moderator
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,341
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by serhito
Jamie,
We almost reached your 151.66 target on the EURJPY. What do you expect next ?
Is this a correction of the 150.74-169.00 move, and expect the uptrend to resume ?
Thanks.
Serge
|
Given that the EURJPY decline from 165.39 is nearly 161.8% of the previous decline, I favor the idea that the EURJPY will rally correctively in a wave 4 before moving lower in a wave 5. Within wave 3, a small 4th wave is unfolidng now and will likely give way to a test of 151.69. So, to answer your question, I do not think that the uptrend will resume. Ultimately, I believe that the EURJPY is headed to 130.00/140.00. I have published reports about the longer term outlook for both the EURJPY and the Dow at dailyfx. The latest one is here http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/...590496575.html
|
08-16-2007, 09:19 AM
|
|
Moderator
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,341
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by blueman
why the wave from 1.3850 to 1.3620 in euro is wave 1 as jamie label why is not wave A still?is it impulsive or three waves?
blueman
|
Please see the technicals from today for the answer to your question. http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/...590496575.html
|
08-16-2007, 09:39 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 79
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by serhito
Jamie,
The USDCAD breached into the high of the previous wave 1 at 1.0698 ? What does that imply ?
Serge
|
Hello,
this wave 1 is not from the same degree
the important level is 1.0642 : the top of wave 1, that the current wave 4 must not break...
i hope i'm clear ? 
regards
Last edited by benfx; 08-16-2007 at 10:43 AM..
|
08-16-2007, 09:44 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 221
|
|
Hi
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele
|
any problem will happen? if we suppose rally from 1.3835 to end of wave c (around 1.3310) in euro and then we have a X wave for another breash rally as a big flat or it isn't correct and we have to have zigzag which start with wave A is 5 waves,anybody knows some sources which is more powerful than www.elliottwave.com introduce? any valid certification? we can get,Thanks in advance
Blueman
|
08-16-2007, 10:00 AM
|
|
Moderator
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,341
|
|
|
USDCAD has traced out a small 5 up from 1.0673 after possibly completing a flat correction (1.0866-1.0673 is wave c of that correction), this may be the next leg up. Keep risk to 1.0673. Target 1 is at 1.1030.
|
08-16-2007, 10:40 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 163
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele
USDCAD has traced out a small 5 up from 1.0673 after possibly completing a flat correction (1.0866-1.0673 is wave c of that correction), this may be the next leg up. Keep risk to 1.0673. Target 1 is at 1.1030.
|
I should have been more specific with my question.
Can a wave 1 of Wave 3 retrace into the previous wave 1 ? (look at the arrow)
|
08-16-2007, 10:56 AM
|
|
Moderator
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,341
|
|
|
Sure, that is not a problem at all. The rule is that wave 4 can not overlap with wave 1 (of the same degree)
|
08-20-2007, 01:14 AM
|
|
Senior Member
|
|
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 266
|
|
Hi all,
I'm very pleased to find that there's a vibrant EW forum with some high level analysis. Jamie is great, italm31 is also obviously an advanced elliotician with thorough understanding of the method. I've just joined the forum a few days ago and I'm excited to be here to share my thoughts and get input.
In regards to the gbp/jpy, I see the pair rallying as a 4th wave zig-zag correction within the larger 3rd to test the trendline in the 230 level, before heading lower. The 230 level is also a 50% retracement of the smaller 3rd wave, and in that region wave c would be about 62% of wave a in that smaller 4th. Eur/jpy is tracing out the same pattern.
Jamie, italm31, and the rest, your input is very appreciated.
-Vlad
|
08-20-2007, 08:06 AM
|
|
Moderator
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,341
|
|
|
The recent developments in the USDCAD offers an opportunity. The rally from 1.0340-1.0866 consists of nearly two nearly equal legs (1.0340-1.0699 and 1.0462-1.0866). This is the hallmark of a correction and the 5 waves down (1.0866 to now) indicates additional bearish potential. Look to get bearish against 1.0866 on a rally back to 1.0650. We will calculate targets as things unfold.
|
|
|
| Thread Tools |
|
|
| Rate This Thread |
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is On
|
|
|
|
