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02-07-2008, 11:24 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by italm31
For all the dollar bears who are looking to buy Euro soon, take a look at this momentum indiacator. Do you really want to go against this? That, in my opinion would be foolish. A better plan I think would be to wait for seven waves down and see if this indicator is converging somewhat. Then go long on a minor swing low. But with the indicator looking like this, the bears are in total control for now.
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The EUR/USD's 4hr and 1hr stochastics are showing severe bullish divergence almost throughout the whole decline, i.e. stochastics barely, or didn't, confirm the price's decline. 4hr stochastics have been dragging along the bottom of oversold territory since the initial drop and have since drifted upward even though price has dropped over 150 pips since! This is the exact same scenario (only reversed) that happened a week ago when the EUR/USD topped and made a sharp decline.
I thought the pair would drift to 1.4500 - 1.4600 but it has gone a little further, and should bottom soon. The momentum is clearly fading and a snap back rally is imminent, and due soon, and probably will occur near triangle resistence. However I disagree with Jaime's triangle count, I have this as a wave c decline now, not wave e. No matter what wave count you choose, all signs point to a weaker dollar. This pair should be bought at these low levels. The dollar's gratuitous rally is almost over.
American-T
Last edited by American Trader; 02-07-2008 at 11:29 AM..
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02-07-2008, 11:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by American Trader
The EUR/USD's 4hr and 1hr stochastics are showing severe bullish divergence almost throughout the whole decline, i.e. stochastics barely, or didn't, confirm the price's decline. 4hr stochastics have been dragging along the bottom of oversold territory since the initial drop and have since drifted upward even though price has dropped over 150 pips since! This is the exact same scenario (only reversed) that happened a week ago when the EUR/USD topped and made a sharp decline.
I thought the pair would drift to 1.4500 - 1.4600 but it has gone a little further, and should bottom soon. The momentum is clearly fading and a snap back rally is imminent, and due soon, and probably will occur near triangle resistence. However I disagree with Jaime's triangle count, I have this as a wave c decline now, not wave e. No matter what wave count you choose, all signs point to a weaker dollar. This pair should be bought at these low levels. The dollar's gratuitous rally is almost over.
American-T
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Alright, obviously I need to make my point again and place my chart on one more time. This will only be the third time today but hey, who counting right. WE HAVE 5 WAVE DOWN...count them 1,2,3,4,5. This means were MAY BE due for a reversal. But Im looking for a retracement to SHORT AGAIN! Thats my PRIMARY COUNT. My SECONDARY COUNT is the triangle EVERYBODY here seems to have MARRIED already. But for the TRIANGLE scenario to pan out, I would like to see 7 waves. IM NOT SAYING YOUR WRONG, IM SAYING I NEED FURTHER PROOF OF A TRIANGLE. THAT ALL! So yes, AMerican, we should get a reversal now. But it does not make that a bullish bias, it makes it bearsh cause we got 5 WAVES DOWN!
Last edited by italm31; 06-11-2008 at 06:00 AM..
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02-07-2008, 12:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by italm31
Alright, obviously I need to make my point again and place my chart on one more time. This will only be the third time today but hey, who counting right. WE HAVE 5 WAVE DOWN...count them 1,2,3,4,5. This means were MAY BE due for a reversal. But Im looking for a retracement to SHORT AGAIN! Thats my PRIMARY COUNT. My SECONDARY COUNT is the triangle EVERYBODY here seems to have MARRIED already. But for the TRIANGLE scenario to pan out, I would like to see 7 waves. IM NOT SAYING YOUR WRONG, IM SAYING I NEED FURTHER PROOF OF A TRIANGLE. THAT ALL! So yes, AMerican, we should get a reversal now. But it does not make that a bullish bias, it makes it bearsh cause we got 5 WAVES DOWN!
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Given the strength of what would be considered wave 5, this could very well be counted as a zigzag (5-3-5). C = 61.8% of A at 1.4446....a test of triangle support close to 1.4400 is possible....but I am very dollar bearish right now.
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02-07-2008, 12:29 PM
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,606
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Quote:
Originally Posted by italm31
Alright, obviously I need to make my point again and place my chart on one more time. This will only be the third time today but hey, who counting right. WE HAVE 5 WAVE DOWN...count them 1,2,3,4,5. This means were MAY BE due for a reversal. But Im looking for a retracement to SHORT AGAIN! Thats my PRIMARY COUNT. My SECONDARY COUNT is the triangle EVERYBODY here seems to have MARRIED already. But for the TRIANGLE scenario to pan out, I would like to see 7 waves. IM NOT SAYING YOUR WRONG, IM SAYING I NEED FURTHER PROOF OF A TRIANGLE. THAT ALL! So yes, AMerican, we should get a reversal now. But it does not make that a bullish bias, it makes it bearsh cause we got 5 WAVES DOWN!
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Italm,
Yes, the triangle should have 3 waves in each leg. If not, then 7. But definitely NOT 5.
Do you agree that the pullback of this last hour in EURUSD, from 1.455 can be counted as Wave 7?
If yes, then we might be looking back at triangle again.
Mike
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02-07-2008, 12:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele
The last hour has made me update my EURUSD count. I still think that we are in a triangle...in fact, I am more confident now about this than I have been in the past. Wave E from 1.4950 is unfolding as a zigzag and will be complete in the next few days....if not tomorrow. (the labels should be A-B-C not W-X-Y...sorry for the confusion)
A bottom could be as low as 1.4415 near the triangle line....but the main point here is that I think we are very close to a bottom.
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Hi Jamie,
I think it would fit much better if your triangel is actually and ENDING diagonal - this leg is 4th and we are missing the 5th ..... target is 1.5001....
that fit with long term target
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02-07-2008, 12:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by danishfx
Hi Jamie,
I think it would fit much better if your triangel is actually and ENDING diagonal - this leg is 4th and we are missing the 5th ..... target is 1.5001....
that fit with long term target
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Possible, either way we are going up. The other count is that this is a big flat that would end below 1.4310 but not by much. I fear this considering that my stop is at 1.4308.
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02-07-2008, 12:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Mike
Italm,
Yes, the triangle should have 3 waves in each leg. If not, then 7. But definitely NOT 5.
Do you agree that the pullback of this last hour in EURUSD, from 1.455 can be counted as Wave 7?
If yes, then we might be looking back at triangle again.
Mike
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Mike,
Look at a bigger chart such as a daily. Without forcing any count, its still 5. The count Jamie just posted is a possibility but Id still don't want to force anything for now. I still see 5. The 6th wave would have to equal or be similar in time as wave 2 and 4. So no, I disagree.
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02-07-2008, 12:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele
Possible, either way we are going up. The other count is that this is a big flat that would end below 1.4310 but not by much. I fear this considering that my stop is at 1.4308.
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Yes i have reversed back at 1.4465 ...... so at least improving my average....
is there any rules regarding the length of 4th in ending diagonals ?
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02-07-2008, 01:07 PM
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Usdjpy
Quote:
Originally Posted by WhatCount
HI Brad
Nice chart, i agree we should see some big down moves on this pair soon, not really sure whats held it up.....
Anyway i am looking at the dailys and there is a trend line that comes it at 106.20 and i am looking sell the break for move to 105 and lower!!
I am really begining to like your long term stuff!!
Thanks
Whatcount
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Thanks Whatcount  I like the long term charts, lt's less work and more pay I can't remember exactly where I saw it, but I do remember reading that the bank of japan is camped out at the 106.00 area and to expect choppy price action in that area, I'm sure it's probably the bank holding up the decline... But I'll bet they can't hold it off for long...
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02-07-2008, 01:13 PM
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Posts: 826
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Quote:
Originally Posted by italm31
Alright, obviously I need to make my point again and place my chart on one more time. This will only be the third time today but hey, who counting right. WE HAVE 5 WAVE DOWN...count them 1,2,3,4,5. This means were MAY BE due for a reversal. But Im looking for a retracement to SHORT AGAIN! Thats my PRIMARY COUNT. My SECONDARY COUNT is the triangle EVERYBODY here seems to have MARRIED already. But for the TRIANGLE scenario to pan out, I would like to see 7 waves. IM NOT SAYING YOUR WRONG, IM SAYING I NEED FURTHER PROOF OF A TRIANGLE. THAT ALL! So yes, AMerican, we should get a reversal now. But it does not make that a bullish bias, it makes it bearsh cause we got 5 WAVES DOWN!
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Calm down. Post all the charts and counts you'd like as many times as you'd like. I'll post my opinion regardless, and you don't have to buy into it. Makes no difference to me. Posting capital letters and exclamation marks will not change anything. I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything. I'm posting my opinion and reading others and taking them for what's it's worth.
The point I'm making with my analysis is that the larger trend for the EUR/USD is up. So these dips should be bought. Whether a short term rally is just a correction and will fall again short term is irrelevant (as long as the drop stays above 1.4310). Dips like this should be bought into as the the EUR/USD will make a new high. In the case of my triangle, it would be in wave c now and so new highs will take a while, but the zig-zag is also a possibility which would mean new highs much faster.
Believe it, or don't believe it. That's my opinion.
American-T
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02-07-2008, 01:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by American Trader
Calm down. Post all the charts and counts you'd like as many times as you'd like. I'll post my opinion regardless, and you don't have to buy into it. Makes no difference to me. Posting capital letters and exclamation marks will not change anything. I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything. I'm posting my opinion and reading others and taking them for what's it's worth.
The point I'm making with my analysis is that the larger trend for the EUR/USD is up. So these dips should be bought. Whether a short term rally is just a correction and will fall again short term is irrelevant (as long as the drop stays above 1.4310). Dips like this should be bought into as the the EUR/USD will make a new high. In the case of my triangle, it would be in wave c now and so new highs will take a while, but the zig-zag is also a possibility which would mean new highs much faster.
Believe it, or don't believe it. That's my opinion.
American-T
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Hey American,
Its called a rebuttal since your post was directed to me and me alone. Your argument was that were about to rally. I say the same thing so I really didnt get your point. If your going to direct some toward me and say Im wrong, you really should understand where I stand first.
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02-07-2008, 01:37 PM
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Eurusd
I can count 5 waves down .... but i can also count as zig-zag ..... i prefer to change my stance .... if we break 1.4309 i will look for the pair to go much
lower .... but for now i actually perfer the Ending diagonal. .... if forth is going to have same length as 3rd then we will se 1.4393.
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02-07-2008, 01:40 PM
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Usdjpy
Quote:
Originally Posted by brad_1199
Thanks Whatcount I like the long term charts, lt's less work and more pay I can't remember exactly where I saw it, but I do remember reading that the bank of japan is camped out at the 106.00 area and to expect choppy price action in that area, I'm sure it's probably the bank holding up the decline... But I'll bet they can't hold it off for long... |
Hi Brad
a little fustrating at the moment, I thought we had a good break of the trendline and then from no where we rallied!! I had gone in, in size so my stop was tight just above 106.38, hence out for the moment and wondering why the USD is infact continuing to rally. for the moment i am out of this but will return. I have a long on cable but that too is now looking weak and i have a stop just below the low of the day.
feeling like a muppet just now, let hope things turn around..
out of interest trading on the longer time frames what sort stops do you operate? 100pips 200?? i tend to give things no more than 30-40 pips on short term trades...
thanks
whatcount
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02-07-2008, 02:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WhatCount
Hi Brad
a little fustrating at the moment, I thought we had a good break of the trendline and then from no where we rallied!! I had gone in, in size so my stop was tight just above 106.38, hence out for the moment and wondering why the USD is infact continuing to rally. for the moment i am out of this but will return. I have a long on cable but that too is now looking weak and i have a stop just below the low of the day.
feeling like a muppet just now, let hope things turn around..
out of interest trading on the longer time frames what sort stops do you operate? 100pips 200?? i tend to give things no more than 30-40 pips on short term trades...
thanks
whatcount
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Just some advice ..... if you are loking for a of 3x profit then your risk should be x.... dont expect to catch a 30 figure move with 30-40 pip stop.
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02-07-2008, 02:24 PM
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Howdy.
NEoWave, wave,wave,wave
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