Elliot Wave Trading - Page 240 - DailyFX Forex Forum

brad_1199 · #**3586** (**permalink**) 02-09-2008, 09:23 PM

Here's what I think is going on in USDJPY....

danishfx · #**3587** (**permalink**) 02-10-2008, 08:24 AM

Sorry guys ..... here are the resized charts

I belive we will just fall short of the long term target at 1.5001 but we will
see a new high at 1.4991 ....

comments are welcome.

orudy · #**3588** (**permalink**) 02-10-2008, 08:44 AM

Hi, any comment on this GBPJPY counting? I expect it will go to 213.3 (200ma 4hr) or 214.5 upper trend resistance?

danishfx · #**3589** (**permalink**) 02-10-2008, 11:34 AM

Here is my analysis of the top formation in euro. The ending diagonal senario gives an upper limit to the last 5th at 1.5025 ..... my strategy is to sell ahead
of the 1.4991 target with stops above 1.5025 ..... It is however fairly cheap to include the case of a B-irregular as target for this is 1.5065 .... so stops at
1.5085 is probably the best R/R case.

justy10125 · #**3590** (**permalink**) 02-10-2008, 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by danishfx

Sorry guys ..... here are the resized charts

I belive we will just fall short of the long term target at 1.5001 but we will
see a new high at 1.4991 ....

comments are welcome.

Hey room... How's everybody been lately? I have a comment on danishfx's view on EUR/USD. The wave that you have labled as 'wave four' is a five wave move. Corrections come in three wave moves or some variation of that basic pattern. My interpretation of the move is that an irregular correction was formed there. I posted two charts below of what I think is happening. The first is of the weekly chart of the Euro. The second is just a picture of the different corrections that are out there. The price action in EUR/USD fits the example of an irregular correction pretty well.

Any comments on this? Happy Trading Everyone!

danishfx · #**3591** (**permalink**) 02-10-2008, 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justy10125

Hey room... How's everybody been lately? I have a comment on danishfx's view on EUR/USD. The wave that you have labled as 'wave four' is a five wave move. Corrections come in three wave moves or some variation of that basic pattern. My interpretation of the move is that an irregular correction was formed there. I posted two charts below of what I think is happening. The first is of the weekly chart of the Euro. The second is just a picture of the different corrections that are out there. The price action in EUR/USD fits the example of an irregular correction pretty well.

Any comments on this? Happy Trading Everyone!

This is an exstremly bullish count than will take the euro to unrealistic highs .... looking at the last 40 years the most exstrem is 0.6423 and
the will correspond to 1/0.6423 = 1.5569 ( a factor of 2.42) from most exstrems ...... i cannot belive EURUSD going much more than 1.5569.

justy10125 · #**3592** (**permalink**) 02-10-2008, 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by danishfx

This is an exstremly bullish count than will take the euro to unrealistic highs .... looking at the last 40 years the most exstrem is 0.6423 and
the will correspond to 1/0.6423 = 1.5569 ( a factor of 2.42) from most exstrems ...... i cannot belive EURUSD going much more than 1.5569.

Yes it is hard to imagine the EUR rising that high against the USD. But luckily for us we use a method of trading that doesn't require us to 'imagine' or decide what's 'realistic' or 'unrealistic.' By using Elliott Wave analysis, we look at price history and then with a set of rules and guidelines we can predict future price movements and targets. I don't like to contradict what EW is telling me, and right now I see higher prices. So, I'll continue trading to the upside until I see evidence of a reversal.

Looking back 30 years or so, we can see that price is currently breaking out to new highs. That alone is extremely bullish.

justy10125 · #**3593** (**permalink**) 02-10-2008, 02:37 PM

I can't see a real clear count on the medium term charts for USD/CAD, but I can see a crystal clear count on the medium term charts for Gold futures. Since the two are closely correlated, I've been using the two charts together to plan trades in USD/CAD.

Gold has recently broken out of the triangle that I believe was wave four of an impulse move. If that's the case, then price is in wave five higher right now. Furthermore, I can see a count that has wave five extending. Using that count Gold is moving higher in wave three of wave three of the larger wave five. Since these moves are usually pretty powerful, we may see gold prices shoot higher. If that happens, USD/CAD may fall pretty hard. I think everybody is on the same page with the short term USD/CAD count, in thinking at least another move down is coming soon. So this seems like a pretty high probability setup here.

Looking at the daily chart of USD/CAD, a bear flag has formed and looks ready to drop.

What do you all think?

marketwavez2 · #**3594** (**permalink**) 02-10-2008, 06:27 PM

Eur/Usd
---------------------------------------------------
Only a Probability !.............Not Cast in Stone !

----------------------------------------

Tmac · #**3595** (**permalink**) 02-10-2008, 06:40 PM

does anyone have any updates on this pair please

Thanks

TM

italm31 · #**3596** (**permalink**) 02-10-2008, 06:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by danishfx

This is an exstremly bullish count than will take the euro to unrealistic highs .... looking at the last 40 years the most exstrem is 0.6423 and
the will correspond to 1/0.6423 = 1.5569 ( a factor of 2.42) from most exstrems ...... i cannot belive EURUSD going much more than 1.5569.

I'm with Danish here. The reason I don't favor Justy's count is when looking at a wave 4, while its true, there is no set rules and guidelines regarding time correlations between wave 2 and 4, I do tend to see a correlation between the two. By going by this count, you could see wave 2 and 4 both lasted 12 months. Justy's count has wave 2 lasting 12 months but wave 4 lasting only 6. Like I said, (before anyone jumps down my throat) I realize thee are no fixed rules and guidelines, but from my experience, this correlation happens way too often to ignore.

Also, that would put us in wave 5. A common fib level for the end of wave 5 is 162% of wave 4. That brings us to 4917. We have yet to close above this level. Another common fib level (which is the next in line) is 62% of wave 1 to 3 projected from wave 4. That brings us to 1.5095 so if we go to new highs, Id keep an eye on that level. Either way the last 2 line you see from the top (162% of wave 4 and 62% of waves 1 to 3) is a hot sopt for a reversal zone in my opinion.

danishfx · #**3597** (**permalink**) 02-10-2008, 07:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by italm31

I'm with Danish here. The reason I don't favor Justy's count is when looking at a wave 4, while its true, there is no set rules and guidelines regarding time correlations between wave 2 and 4, I do tend to see a correlation between the two. By going by this count, you could see wave 2 and 4 both lasted 12 months. Justy's count has wave 2 lasting 12 months but wave 4 lasting only 6. Like I said, (before anyone jumps down my throat) I realize thee are no fixed rules and guidelines, but from my experience, this correlation happens way too often to ignore.

Also, that would put us in wave 5. A common fib level for the end of wave 5 is 162% of wave 4. That brings us to 4917. We have yet to close above this level. Another common fib level (which is the next in line) is 62% of wave 1 to 3 projected from wave 4. That brings us to 1.5095 so if we go to new highs, Id keep an eye on that level.

Hi ,

How do you get 1.5095 ?.... i get 1.5001 as 61.5% og 1st to 3rd ...

justy10125 · #**3598** (**permalink**) 02-10-2008, 07:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by italm31

I'm with Danish here. The reason I don't favor Justy's count is when looking at a wave 4, while its true, there is no set rules and guidelines regarding time correlations between wave 2 and 4, I do tend to see a correlation between the two. By going by this count, you could see wave 2 and 4 both lasted 12 months. Justy's count has wave 2 lasting 12 months but wave 4 lasting only 6. Like I said, (before anyone jumps down my throat) I realize thee are no fixed rules and guidelines, but from my experience, this correlation happens way too often to ignore.

Also, that would put us in wave 5. A common fib level for the end of wave 5 is 162% of wave 4. That brings us to 4917. We have yet to close above this level. Another common fib level (which is the next in line) is 62% of wave 1 to 3 projected from wave 4. That brings us to 1.5095 so if we go to new highs, Id keep an eye on that level. Either way the last 2 line you see from the top (162% of wave 4 and 62% of waves 1 to 3) is a hot sopt for a reversal zone in my opinion.

I just don't see how that could be a wave four. Corrective waves come in threes. It's a rule. So if you would please, break it down and show a chart of how you see that as a three.

JimboFX · #**3599** (**permalink**) 02-10-2008, 07:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by marketwavez2

Eur/Usd
---------------------------------------------------
Only a Probability !.............Not Cast in Stone !

----------------------------------------

marketwavez,

euro short term........I think we have five waves down of bigger wave A and now we are due to three waves up in bigger wave B...........but that just me

JimboFX · #**3600** (**permalink**) 02-10-2008, 07:30 PM

BTW guys, here are some EW guidelines I found on the web. It's something very simple for those who'd like to start from the begining.

http://www.tradingfives.com/articles...wave-guide.htm

P.S. to moderator :
I'm not sure if I'm alowed to post a link here, if not feel free to delete my post if it's against the rules.