Elliot Wave Trading - Page 264

Big Mike · #**3946** (**permalink**) 02-21-2008, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by marketwavez2

CRUDE OIL ,

There is no slowdown , is there ?
-----------------------------
China has the worlds largest population with 40 % unemployment
India right next door
- has the 2nd largest population with record unemployment also

This new generation of people are now being plugged into something
they call the internet and is influencing all theses unemployed people to
drive cars , go to the movies , and eat TV Dinners ....

This is the sure thing behavior of
all these unemployed people in the very near future .......

Just because America is sneezing -
Does it mean the rest of the world gets a cold ?
---------------------------------------------------------------
You tell me .......

I already know when America blows a fart ,
- it is smelled everywhere in the financial markets -World-Wide
.......Stink up the whole place ........

( Japan 's Nikkei was down a whopping 450 points overnight yesterday )
Japan is always watching the close of the US session from the night before
as this is their benchmark , Its all " Cause -n- Effect "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

So What of this slow down ......?

------------------------------------------------------------------------
$100 dollar a barrel oil will seem cheap 4 to 5 years from now
no matter who the president of the U.S. is.......
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The trading and haggling oil prices will be driven ultimately
to accommodate all these unemployed people .
---------------------------------------------------------------------
by the way , so you know
Oil is not only used in your car or house -

Oil is in every product you use everyday in some way or fashion
including the packaging of the products that you consume .

making oil the ultimate product for the World Governments
and World Corporations to manipulate for monetary gain ........

Oil is everywhere -

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Crude Oil .....( Weekly Bars )

" End of Wave 4 " since Feb 07 --- Major Support , Just 1 year ago

See chart posted below
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
[IMG]http://i30.tinypic.com/2rdyd5f.jpg[/IM]

http://www.elliottwave.com/club/anal...From%20Here%22

Hi Guys
for those of you who would like to see this video, if you haven't seen it yet.
Great example of Elliott Wave.
Mike

WhatCount · #**3947** (**permalink**) 02-21-2008, 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele

I wrote earlier that in a bull market, you can only be long or very long. It is a bull market now for Cable so dips should be bought. Exactly when that dip happens I dont know but as I mentioned, I will let you know as best I can when I am adding to the position

Thank Jamie

Yes i understand and hear you lound and clear, i want to reverse my position....but now need to find the level to do so...

i had hoped for a dip to 19505 area to reverse this position to go long and join the party, but now in a trap!!

Can you advise on my stop, currently very near to my stop at 19648....

Thanks again all

regards

Whatcount

brad_1199 · #**3948** (**permalink**) 02-21-2008, 01:29 PM

[QUOTE=marketwavez2

Market... I just laughed my ass off when I read your "U.S. Farting thing" That's howls bud ! lol

brad_1199 · #**3949** (**permalink**) 02-21-2008, 01:35 PM

This was my original outlook on USDCAD when I started following it months ago... Jaime has called a reversal that looks like it will play out... After seeing support on the under side of the 61.8 retracement when price tried to rally... I have exited my long position at a profit... I will watch this pair for now....

Jamie Saettele · #**3950** (**permalink**) 02-21-2008, 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WhatCount

Thank Jamie

Yes i understand and hear you lound and clear, i want to reverse my position....but now need to find the level to do so...

i had hoped for a dip to 19505 area to reverse this position to go long and join the party, but now in a trap!!

Can you advise on my stop, currently very near to my stop at 19648....

Thanks again all

regards

Whatcount

I can tell you what I am doing but can not give specific advice. Sorry.

brad_1199 · #**3951** (**permalink**) 02-21-2008, 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WhatCount

Jamie all others

I really need some help here for cable,

I entered a short earlier today, trying to fade the rally.....

needless to say under water big time now...

Jamie you mentioned that one more high to be registered, before a retrace.

Question has that high been registered?

Do you or anyone feel that we will see 19500 or lower anytime soon?

Brad i remember your count you are the bear on this can you help on a short term count please.

Any help here would be greatly apreicated..

regards
Whatcount

I try not to count the short term too much friend... I find it difficult and confusing most of the time... That's why you see me here with long term counts all the time... I'm not too sure where you entered your trade ... But I think today's candle is too big.. I think tonight and going into tomorrow we should see some retracement into today's price action... Probably atleast halfway into it..

Hope that helps...

majali.odai · #**3952** (**permalink**) 02-21-2008, 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WhatCount

Thank Jamie

Yes i understand and hear you lound and clear, i want to reverse my position....but now need to find the level to do so...

i had hoped for a dip to 19505 area to reverse this position to go long and join the party, but now in a trap!!

Can you advise on my stop, currently very near to my stop at 19648....

Thanks again all

regards

Whatcount

whatcount,
why don't u cancel the stop and hedge ur position, for me it feels the best solution, cuz the price is gonna come back down eventually....

Jamie Saettele · #**3953** (**permalink**) 02-21-2008, 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brad_1199

I try not to count the short term too much friend... I find it difficult and confusing most of the time... That's why you see me here with long term counts all the time... I'm not too sure where you entered your trade ... But I think today's candle is too big.. I think tonight and going into tomorrow we should see some retracement into today's price action... Probably atleast halfway into it..

Hope that helps...

I will say this about GBPUSD though....when it goes in one direction, there tends to be very little pullback. There are often strings of consecutive up and down days

WhatCount · #**3954** (**permalink**) 02-21-2008, 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brad_1199

I try not to count the short term too much friend... I find it difficult and confusing most of the time... That's why you see me here with long term counts all the time... I'm not too sure where you entered your trade ... But I think today's candle is too big.. I think tonight and going into tomorrow we should see some retracement into today's price action... Probably atleast halfway into it..

Hope that helps...

Thanks Brad

I had hoped for this , i tend to agree that the candle is long, however jamie has a good point to....we will see time will tell.

for me the thing to do is leave my stop in and if it goes it goes!!!

I will have to take the knock and move on.... harsh but another learning curve.

Market you wouldnt by any chance have that book on a PDF would you by any chance Friend

....

My friend i do understand money management , thats why i have stop ready!
so far i am ok....lets see....

As for hedging its the same as closing out, if you just do the reverse trade!!

regards all

marketwavez2 · #**3955** (**permalink**) 02-21-2008, 02:02 PM

GbpUsd
CHART UPDATE

Yesterday !................ To ............. Today !
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Original Post :
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/...13880&page=263
---------------------------------------------------------
Suggestion of a " Wave 4 " Rally - as was illustrated .......

-----------------------------------------------------------

marketwavez2 · #**3956** (**permalink**) 02-21-2008, 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WhatCount

Jamie all others

I really need some help here for cable,

I entered a short earlier today, trying to fade the rally.....

needless to say I'm under water big time now...
-------------------------------------------------
Any help here would be greatly appreciated..

regards
Whatcount

This is why you are to study Money Mangement

- It is your Holy Grail ..........
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Learn to decide how many pips you want to risk on a trade
no matter what wave-count you think is occurring .......
--------------------------------------------------------------
Only You can decide your Risk Tolerance ..............

So ,
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Go away now from this thread
and read all you can , about Money Management
and Position Sizing over the next few days .........

then ,
Set-up your Risk Parameters and learn to respect them on every trade
that you decide to take no matter what you think the wave-count is .

------------------------------------------------------------------------
PS
Don't sit around in here asking people what to read ,
Do your own research on this matter .....

I assure you there is not a thread in all of this forum that
speaks of Money Management techniques on a daily basis .
----------------------------------------------------------------
- Go to the Library if you have to :
Go out and find your Money Management Style .......... Then Respect it !

marketwavez2 · #**3957** (**permalink**) 02-21-2008, 02:10 PM

---------------------------------------------------------

Big Mike · #**3958** (**permalink**) 02-21-2008, 02:15 PM

Quotation from Elliott wave Int. regarding the Oil Prices:
""External factors of supply/demand are not the driving force behind changes to oil's trend. The internal measure of mass social mood, which unfolds as clear Elliott Wave patterns on the price charts -- IS.

There is no exception to the power and persistence of social mood. When the time comes for it to trend DOWN, nothing, not even the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history, can stop it.""

Obviously, they believe that demand has nothing to do with the oil prices.
Myself, I can only comment that the demand has increased since 1999 (when oil was $10 per barrell) from 72 million to 85 million per day. Normal economics would you make believe that the price should increase by a corresponding percentage, or thereabouts. But, the fact is that the price increased by ONE ORDER OF MAGNITUDE.
Further, we here in Alberta produce the most expensive oil in the world from Athabasca Oil Sands. Do you know the cost?
$17 per barrell
Further, why are the oil companies shutting the wells down, if the lifting cost is above $9 per barrell?
Why is Encana showing $5B profit on $15B revenue?
Just think about it, guys. Be an independent thinker, like one of our trading friends on this forum told me recently.
Mike

senthil10 · #**3959** (**permalink**) 02-21-2008, 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brad_1199

This was my original outlook on USDCAD when I started following it months ago... Jaime has called a reversal that looks like it will play out... After seeing support on the under side of the 61.8 retracement when price tried to rally... I have exited my long position at a profit... I will watch this pair for now....

You were on money on this, Brad. I am still a rookie and your chart helps to improve my charting.

WhatCount · #**3960** (**permalink**) 02-21-2008, 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by marketwavez2

GbpUsd
CHART UPDATE

Yesterday !................ To ............. Today !
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Original Post :

---------------------------------------------------------
Suggestion of a " Wave 4 " Rally - as was illustrated .......

-----------------------------------------------------------

Market what can i say, i see your charts yesterday and foe some reason i have a pair of rose tinted glasses on. It true What Mike said you see what you wantto see, the mind is a difficult one to train!!

So after wave 4 is finished down we go by your count??? care to put some fibs on and put a projection on wave 4 end??

reagrds

Whatcount