Elliot Wave Trading - Page 33

kcar1 · #**481** (**permalink**) 09-09-2007, 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by italm31

Hey kcar1, your right about diagonals not happening in wave 2. They can happen in c of 2 but not in 2 as a whole so I believe your count is flawed.

First off, yes, where there were no rules broken for it to be a wave 4 from the July 24th top, like in the Yen pairs, the retracement is way too deep so chances are something else might be going on.
Second, Your wave 1 of 5 down is in 3 waves (look at the 4 hour chart). Third, diagonals, as you pointed out happen in wave 5s or Cs.

I do believe it may still be a diagonal and the move down will happen as early as Sunday. Heres a little clue why. Take the AUD/USD 4 hour chart and overlay the GBP/JPY 4hour chart. The chart looks virtually the same except for one thing. Every big move in the opposite direction started off with the GBP/JPY doing it first and the Aussie following suit a few hours later. The Aussie seems to be lagging the Yen pairs.

So putting everything together, my count for the Aussie is were are either in a wave 5 diagonal of 1 up (for the bulls). OR were in a 2 of extended wave 3 of a larger degree down (just like my count for the Yen pairs). Either way, that puts us in a wave 5 diagonal or C of 2 diagonal. If you missed the big diagonal move in the GBP/Jpy this week, Sunday may be your chance with this pair. (Although the Aussie diagonal looks about done so lets hope it does not open with a big gap down which I have a funny feeling it might)

Thanks italm31 for your insight. Yes that was a rookie mistake labelling 3 waves down as wave 1, doh!

Therefore I have adjusted it to show an ABC sequence, with the B ending at 8050, then C being a diagonal in development now. Just can't seem to get rid of that bearish feeling heh.

I am glad to know someone else thinks the same way about AUD lagging behind the GBPJPY. With the yen strengthening we could be in for some fireworks in AUDUSD.

I am also in the bear camp with regards to EURUSD. I am seeing the pair being in an upward wave B since Nov 2005. The wave A began around Christmas 2004. Looks like an irregular correction being formed. This means any topping around the 1.4 mark may signal a devastating wave C down. Wishful thinking???

italm31 · #**482** (**permalink**) 09-09-2007, 06:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zeev

Hey ital,

Your analysis of the eur/usd as a bearish view is interesting. As you know I'm long-term bullish of the pair so this could be an interesting exchange. So to offer a differing interpretation of the long-term eur/usd, consistent with my bullish view, here's what I'm seeing. (By the way, for about a year I was trying to interpret this pattern in a bearish perspective until quite recently when I changed to long-term bullish on the eur/usd because the bearish case just kept getting invalidated and was becoming too confusing for me.)

So here's what I see. There are 9 distinct waves up on the eur/usd weekly, which is a bullish count. It's clearer on the gbp/usd chart so I'm attaching that too. If this interpretation is correct, then this is a continuation diagonal rather than an ending diagonal and we would be going much higher.

I see fundamental support for this view too. The fed has already eased the fed discount rate, pumped a lot of money into the financial system, and with the non-farm surprise the markets are pricing in almost 100% chance of an easing of the fed funds rate on sept. 18, probably with more easing to follow. It's all bearish for the dollar. Also, spot gold broke through its previous resistance at 690-694 very strongly to touch 707, which is very significant if you're a bullion trader or follower.

Attachment 8044
Attachment 8045

Hey Zeev,
Thank you for your insight on the Eur/USD. I see your 9 waves. Does that mean you think its over. Cause you know if a new high is made, according to your count, that would mean 11 waves. 11 waves is bearish not bullish. Also, your wave 5 8 and 10are all over lapping so I don't know if you could count those as individual waves. I think your wave 1 is an ABC (that could be construde as 3 waves but I suppose one could argue it to be 5), I also believe your wave 4 to be an x wave, your wave 5 is an another A, your wave 6 a B, and fially your wave 7,8,9 and 10 to be a 1, 2, 3, 4 of a diagonal C. Which means if I'm right, we should be in a wave 5 final wave of the diagonal. Making a double zigzag in a larger degree B wave.

Also, when I have trouble diagnosing a count, I look at a bigger picture. I actually got the double zigzag interpretation looking at a weekly.

italm31 · #**483** (**permalink**) 09-09-2007, 06:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcar1

Thanks italm31 for your insight. Yes that was a rookie mistake labelling 3 waves down as wave 1, doh!

Therefore I have adjusted it to show an ABC sequence, with the B ending at 8050, then C being a diagonal in development now. Just can't seem to get rid of that bearish feeling heh.

I am glad to know someone else thinks the same way about AUD lagging behind the GBPJPY. With the yen strengthening we could be in for some fireworks in AUDUSD.

I am also in the bear camp with regards to EURUSD. I am seeing the pair being in an upward wave B since Nov 2005. The wave A began around Christmas 2004. Looks like an irregular correction being formed. This means any topping around the 1.4 mark may signal a devastating wave C down. Wishful thinking???

Hey kcar,
I'm in agreement with you regarding the B wave on the Euro. Is it wishful thinking for it to top at 1.4. I guess it depends if your a dollar bull or not and I'm definitely a dollar bull right now. How bullish am I the dollar? Well if you read my last post (#479), you'll see that I don't even expect it to reach 1.4000 as I think we may be in a diagonal now and we may be in the last leg up of the diagonal. My diagonal count will be re-evaluated if 1.3948 is broken. I expect a top near 1.38 to 1.3850. Now is that wishful thinking...maybe...but Ive seen much stranger things happen.

italm31 · #**484** (**permalink**) 09-09-2007, 09:02 PM

Hey guys,
As I suspected, it appears the diagonal for the AUSSIE is over this evening. (post number 478). Thanks to Jamie for opening up a discussion on it. Its been all down hill so far yet the big move down hasn't happened yet. We may be in a wave 3 of 1 down. You could decide to get in now a place your stop above the wave 2 high at about 1.8290 or wait for 5 a wave decline then a retracement for a better risk reward. A break below .8181 is the signal the diagonal is over.

Regarding the Euro, I'm waiting for at least 1 more high to complete a 5 wave rally on the smaller charts. We seem to be in a wave 4 of 5 on the 30 min. One more high would bring us into the Zone of 1.3800 to 1.3850 where I suspect a Major top to be in place. There is also alot of European news out in the morning. By the time the news hits, we may be in a wave 3 down so if I'm right, that news will be blamed for the big decline.

Finally, regarding the GBP/JPY, wave 3 of 1 is over. We are in wave 4 (unless we get a complete reversal back to the territory of wave 1 into the 232 area without completing 5 waves down). I expect a short term bottom (wave 5) once we surpass the larger degree B wave at 227.40 which is the initial signal were going much lower.

italm31 · #**485** (**permalink**) 09-10-2007, 03:56 AM

Hey guys,
Heads up...with the Euro finally making a new high to 1.3800, we have a minimum for a wave 5 top. Will be looking for a sign of a top.

italm31 · #**486** (**permalink**) 09-10-2007, 04:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by italm31

Hey guys,
Heads up...with the Euro finally making a new high to 1.3800, we have a minimum for a wave 5 top. Will be looking for a sign of a top.

There may be a top in place in the Euro with the 5th wave on a 1 min being truncated. I see divergence on the 15 min RSI as well. I want to see a bearish engulfment on the 30 followed by 5 waves down on the smaller lights. A break below 1.3765 is the initial signal.

italm31 · #**487** (**permalink**) 09-10-2007, 06:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by italm31

There may be a top in place in the Euro with the 5th wave on a 1 min being truncated. I see divergence on the 15 min RSI as well. I want to see a bearish engulfment on the 30 followed by 5 waves down on the smaller lights. A break below 1.3765 is the initial signal.

well that obviously wasn't THE top but notice how the Euro is having a hard time staying above 1.3800. Be vigilant guys. W do have a minimum for at least a short term top in not, we have a minimum for a diagonal long term top as well.

italm31 · #**488** (**permalink**) 09-10-2007, 07:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by italm31

well that obviously wasn't THE top but notice how the Euro is having a hard time staying above 1.3800. Be vigilant guys. W do have a minimum for at least a short term top in not, we have a minimum for a diagonal long term top as well.

We have a 5 wave decline on a 1 min chart. I want to see a reversal 4 hour candlestick at 8 am along with a break below 1.3765 before passing judgement.

Jamie Saettele · #**489** (**permalink**) 09-10-2007, 09:10 AM

NZDJPY - a 5 wave rally from the bottom (this is a 5 minute chart). Look for a correction but this rally makes it likely that today - or at least the morning - will be a pro-carry day.

Jamie Saettele · #**490** (**permalink**) 09-10-2007, 10:40 AM

Following up on the previous NZD/JPY post, it looks like wave a of an a-b-c is complete at 78.52. I am looking for the 61.8% of 76.93-79.39 at 77.87 in order to establish a position.

Jamie Saettele · #**491** (**permalink**) 09-10-2007, 11:53 AM

If you are scalping this pair (NZDJPY), then look for to sell near 78.79/93, against 79.39, targeting below 78.20.

Jamie Saettele · #**492** (**permalink**) 09-10-2007, 12:05 PM

This is the chart with labels. Wave B should end in the mentioned zone (previous post) and that opens up the short term opportunity to for wave C down towards 77.90.

italm31 · #**493** (**permalink**) 09-10-2007, 07:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by italm31

well that obviously wasn't THE top but notice how the Euro is having a hard time staying above 1.3800. Be vigilant guys. W do have a minimum for at least a short term top in not, we have a minimum for a diagonal long term top as well.

Hey guys,
I beieve the top for the Euro to be in place. I did get my 4 hour reversal candlestick this morning at 8 as well as my 5 wave decline...see 5 min chart. I believe the Euro spent the whole day in wave 2 retracing that whole 5 wave decline. Wave 3 (or C) is on the way. Also in you noticed, the Euro is having trouble staying a float 1.38. Thats not a bullish signal. It also falls into the zone I was waiting for in a major top (1.38 to 1.3850). Im still waiting for my final confirmation signal...that being a break below 1.3765.

italm31 · #**494** (**permalink**) 09-10-2007, 07:28 PM

Regarding the GBP/JPY, I think wave 4 is over and were headed for wave 5 of 1 of 3 of 3 NOW! (I know hats sounds confusing but start from the 4 hour chart. I think were in a wave 3 of 3 and the first get down (wave 1)began last Tuesday. Today were spent the day in wave 4 of that wave 1...and now I think that wave 4 is over and were going for a new low before a larger retracement...confused yet...well that what Elliot is about...where are we in the Overall trend. If you could figure that out, your ahead of the game. Basically, the present is way more important that the future.

italm31 · #**495** (**permalink**) 09-10-2007, 08:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by italm31

Regarding the GBP/JPY, I think wave 4 is over and were headed for wave 5 of 1 of 3 of 3 NOW! (I know hats sounds confusing but start from the 4 hour chart. I think were in a wave 3 of 3 and the first get down (wave 1)began last Tuesday. Today were spent the day in wave 4 of that wave 1...and now I think that wave 4 is over and were going for a new low before a larger retracement...confused yet...well that what Elliot is about...where are we in the Overall trend. If you could figure that out, your ahead of the game. Basically, the present is way more important that the future.

Hey gys, the drop in the GBP/JPY looks corrective. For now, a drop below 229.81 in the intial signal that wave 5 is on the way