We may finally have a top on the GBP/JPY. We have a 5 wave decline (5 min chart) followed by 3 waves up. An entry now would be good risk reward. As think were going below 227.40 for a wave 5 of 1 down (in order to go back to the start of the diagonal. Stop at 230.40. Still need a break below 229.85 for confirmation.

On the EURO USD/ we have another 5 wave decline I believe to be a 1 of 3. The big push down in a 3 of 3 should happen at the start of the Euro session. Word of caution, we still haven't gotten our push below 1.3765 for confirmation.

After dropping below 2.0243, Cable has turned higher and a third wave rally could be underway from 2.0235 after a series of 1 and 2 waves from 2.0043. The bullish objective is above 2.0654.

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Very short term, bearish Kiwi from below .7000 targeting below .6921 with potential for .6900 might be a good play as the pair looks ready to fall in a small c wave.

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Hey Ital,

I'm starting to think this may be a triangle, which would explain how long it's taking for this to roll over. The triangle B may have started at the bottom on Aug 16th (as shown), in which case we'd be pretty close to the next leg down, or it may only be wave b of B/2, which would imply a small wave e down and a thrust higher towards 240ish before going down for wave C/3.

Spin

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The bearish triangle interpretation is certainly a possibility but also consider a bullish triangle with the initial rally from 219.30 as larger wave A and the triangle as wave B. A terminal thrust higher in wave B would be the end result under this count before the larger decline resumes.

Hi Guys,

Again with the loonie. I think the CADJPY has shown light on where USDCAD might be heading in the next few weeks. My previous wavecount on CADJPY has been invalidated when wave 4 traversed into wave 1. I am assuming we will see a lower USDCAD soon. Is this correlation OK?

How about other yen crosses, I know USDJPY has some room up to complete wave 4.

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Hey Spin,
Well your count certainly makes sense. E waves usually sub-divide in 3 so according to your count, we should be in a last leg up before a larger C waves unfolds. My count of wave iv of 1 down is still valid (cause we still haven't gone into territory of wave i of 1) but I think unlikey non the less cause the retracement for wave iv is way too deep for my liking. I was also waiting for the 227.40 (B wave to be broken and it never was). So for now, all we could do is monitor confirmation points until we get a valid count. If you do trade a possible top based on high probability, its fine, just don't bet the house on it until we get a valid confirmation. Your count requires a break below 228.22. You could wait for that then a retracement (provided you have 5 waves down on the smaller charts) or you could try to time this last E wave in which case, the initial signal for it to be over (for now anyways...until you get a valid count for that last leg on the E wave) is a break below 229.56.

I showed the other one, but this is actually my preferred scenario at this point.

The advantage with the bullish triangle scenario is that, with respect to the correlations we've seen in the past couple of months, it's consistent with the calls you've made in your daily technicals regarding GBP/EUR/CHF/AUD/NZD (and let's not forget the CAD trendline break) strength vs USD.

Spin

I agree with you that it's better to wait for a break because the triangle (if it is one) could break either way.

The JPY crosses were just posted at www.dailyfx.com. It looks like all of the crosses will be working higher over the next few days to complete the lage B wave corrections from the lows.

I like Jamie's diagonal triangle count, (which helped me make a nice trade last month ty Jamie ) but it may need another leg down so that wave 5 of the diagonal 5 would be a 3 (i.e. I now think we may need C of 5 of the diagonal 5before we take off for that big correction we're patiently waiting for). Wave C can't go lower than 1.0070 (+/-) or that would invalidate the diagonal scenario.

Spin

Hey guys
GBP/JPY just made it to 61.8% retracement of the five wave decline from last friday. Be interesting to see what happens from here. There is also a 5 wave rally today ending with a possible diagonal (see 15 min chart). could this be a top? A break below 231.55 is the signal for the diagonal to be over.

Hey guys,

In light of all the action in the markets, I would like to reassert my bullish view and invite anyone who's interested to review my previous posts.

Happy trading.

Hey Guys,
The volitility its unbelievable. Trying to make sense of the waves only seems impossible but its not. Those who are patient and wait for the charts to show you the way will be rewarded. My bearish bias has not been phased one bit. My short-trem counts may have been shaken up a little, but the bigger piture still remains down in my eyes. I still see a 2 of 3 down in a longer trend and believe were entering the wave 3 of 3 down in the GBP/JPY.

As markets are going back up and seem to have found their footing, headlines on Blomberg are screaming the reason the be the beleif that "U.S credit Concerns are Easing". That means the majority are still bulls and that is typical of a wave 2 in a bear market.

As a matter of fact, I myself, have been known to change my bias in wave 2s and once I do, lo and behold, only to find my first bias to be correct and the trend I original thought to be in place ends up being right. Its human psychology and we, as ellioticians are NOT more immune to it than anyone else is. Thats why, its super important to stick to your guns until the count proves other wise. I'm not saying you should be a bear. BY no means am I suggesting that. I'm saying if your a bull, Be a bull until your count prove wrong. If your a bear, don't change your count until your proven wrong.

I still believe I'm in a ii of 3 down on a longer trend in the GBP/JPY until I get a break above 234.21; because that is my count. A break below 229.56 means were going much lower. Thats what the 4 hour chart is telling me. The only way you'll ever get good in this business if by sticking by your convictions and not following Anybody. Otherwise, whats the point. You'd be following the herd like 95 % of the population!