Completely agree with u on the EURGBP outlook, Jamie. Been waiting for exactly this move in this pair since last summer, when it failed to break higher and it became quite obvious it would try to play out a triangle scenario. And the second wave took sooooo unbelieveably long to develop, but when 0,674 region held and it strated inching higher, and I slowly started buying... at 0,6746 i started and after the break above 0,6775 I became convincingly (as convincingly as u can become in trading) bullish, adding on my position with every break of 4-hour fractal and moving my stop loss to break even after every increase of position... (that's how I usually play assumed possible big moves I want to get into aggressivelly)... until, all my money was fully leveraged in EURGBP with an average rate of 0,6791 this morning and a stop loss at break even. Today was a great day, but I am really looking at 0,72 (around 1.618 times vawe 1 and a target quite coinciding with previously important top) to come within months... half year maybe, but it could be quicker... or it might not be at all. who knows.

And yes, been tracking the diagonal in GBPUSD down as well... Agree to that as well, closed my long at 2,0339 today.

What I do not like as an Elliott wave counter, is that we all seem to agree. Which makes it all too easy for the market to play out for us. It's like contrary to the contrary - when elliotticians all agree on something and feel something is quite obvious (which for big tops and moves quite often is when all of the public is too one-sided on the other side as the wavers).... then - which extreme is the correct one...? Usually none.

Spin,

Since I do work in the markets department in a swedish bank, I do hear quite a lot about SEK (especially lately if u look at the chart), but since I only trade FX for myself, not the bank, I very passivelly follow USDSEK on the longer charts. From those charts I sometimes throw an idea out to our few FX guys on the other side of the room (none of them count waves, so they are sometimes interested in my approach). But personally me - I have been trading this pair very rarely. Only one really good trade I remember, and a few quite bad attempts.

I can show u how I have labeled the weekly chart.
The main count is bearish with a potential for a bullish turn in this pair quite soon, especially if 6,54-6,56 continues to hold...
I had to relabel it when the perfect head and sholders top (labeled "(c) and II?") played out in a 5 wave move lower - my good trade was being there for the "iii", which I at that point was labeling "c" actually - mainly because the left shoulder played out in such a nice 5-waver. So I had the end of the first "I" at where i currently have '(b)'. But the '(b)' is actually more of a 3-waver, so is '(a)', but '(c)' turned out as a perfect fiver.

So, from there we've had nicely proportioned 5 waves down (i-ii-ii-iv-v), where ii and iv alternate in their looks, 'v' is quite equal to 'i', and 'iv' divides the whole five wave sequence in a proportion of 0,382:0,618. So from there a correction ought to play out - by now I see it as a possible flat and I'd like some more retracement for the 5-waves down. The right shoulder has retraced all of the left shoulder. The momentum has been waning (typical of fives - see MACD below chart). That makes me want a correction to around 7,40 - previous 4th (iv) wave and at least 38,2 retracement. But then later, since the head and shoulders played out so nicely (and it is a continuation pattern), I see it going DOWN. And especially if you look at the historical 3-wave move up (labeled A?-B?-C?) and the subsequent "I"-"II" lower - I might be streching it, but the "II" ends quite close (assuming the SIZE of the chart) to where "A" ended... and momentum has been lower and lower in
A-C-II - again see MACD below. See it plays out the same way as in the smaller LS---RS I wrote about above. So is this another head and shoulders looking pattern maybe? All this suuggests we would see 5,08 in the coming year after a possible bounce I described previously... On the other hand... if the support region breaks very convincingly - it might just crash....

Hope it was at least interesting and might have helped you. What are your oppinions?

Sincerely,
Picolo

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Hi Picolo,

We unfortunately had to remove your chart because of its size. Please not that charts need to be no wider than 750 pixels otherwise they will interfere with the layout of the forum and we will have to remove them. Please just make the chart smaller and upload it again.

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DailyFX Forum

Perfect. Thanks a lot for your understanding.

No problem. Looks a lot better. My pleasure.

Hey guys,
Beautiful set up coming in view on the AUD/NZD on daily chart. We have a 5 wave rally that began July 2nd at 1.0906 and appears to have just ended 1.2031. Looking at a 4 hour chart, we have a 5 wave decline. Im labling that as a 1 of A. Will try to catch 3 of A sometime this week. The ultimate retracement should be between 50% to 61.8% of that large 5 wave rally (between 1.1334 and 1.1466).

I think a top for the AUD NZD will happen tonight. Looking at a 30 min, we appear to be in wave c of 2 down in an irregular flat. Top should happen at or neat 1.1867 (or 38.2% of wave i of A down)

We made it to 1.1870. before it reversed. We got a reversal candlestick on the 10 min. This could be the top although the 1 min chart suggests we may make another high.

So far so good for my AUD/NZD trade. Now Im looking for a target. The initial 5 wave decline was 265 pips. We got our wave 2 and if my trade is correct, we should be in wave 3 or c down. Keep in mind, I believe this to be an A wave so I don't know if it will be in 3 waves or 5. Just to play it safe, I will trade it as though it will be 3 waves. My target is 1.1605 (265 pips or 100% of wave 1 of 3 or c of larger A down) which is a minimum. The only thing is the decline this evening is not as readable as I'd lke. Im anxiously awaiting a wave 2 so I could move protective stop to at least break even.

Picolo,

Thank you very much for your insight, you've obviously studied this seriously.

At first glance, my count was pretty much the same as your old one, the difficulty being to "fit" the move down since the top (labeled II in your new count) as (b). The other potential problem is that (a) (now labeled (c) ) was a very nice five, which would mean the whole correction is a zig-zag, wave b of a zig-zag doesn't typically retrace so much of wave a.

Long story short I prefer your new count, especially up until (c) of II. The only thing I wonder about is could this be a more complex correction (or a triangle)? The reason I get this feeling is that the whole move down since the beginning of wave 1 of III isn't very easy to read as an impulse, and we need to label the 3rd lowest low as the orthodox one (possibly soon to be 4th if b of 2 of III makes a new low).

Bigger picture, all these alternates as well as your main count seem to point to a move higher soon, the difference being how much...

Any thoughts?

Thanks

Spin

Spin,

as I said, I currently label the move from "II" to proposed 1 as a five wave at exactly the low you're talking about... 3rd lowest until now. For the reasons mentioned above, which all fit the elliott guidelines. Plus in that i-ii-ii-iv-v move wave "ii" retraces exactly 61.8% of "i" (in a sharp correction), and wave "iv" retraces exactly 38.2% of "iii" (in a sideways correction) which is perfect for me! And since that low the impulsiveness of the move is lost... so we are looking at a correction since that low, I think... The pressure on the buck has been all over the board lately, so that's why this pair has failed to make it more "upwardish" and has been sideways, with slowing momentum, in possibly two three wave moves labeled "a" and "b". Of course it's very, very difficult to judge what the correction will play out to be in the end. It could be a lot of formations... but at this point because of the overwhelming pressure lower I currently assume there's a good possibility of quite a shallow (maybe even running) flat for this proposed possible wave "2".

So for now I'd be looking at a possible low below 6.62 in the last push to finnish of a 5 wave move in what would be a small " 'c " of a "b", that might be followed by a bigger 5-wave "c" to complete the "2". That's looking at a daily chart.

But we shall see.
Happy trading, Spin!

Picolo

Morning Guys,
The Aussi kiwi looks to be in a wave 1 of C down where 1 is almost over so another opportunity to short a wave 3 should come shortly for those interested.
Also, the GBP/USD appears to completed its 5 waves down. It looks about to start wave c of 2. I'm looking for a top somewhere in the vicinity of 2.0305 to 2.0320. First stop down should be the beginning of the diagonal at 2.0041.

Hey guys,
The USD/CHF looks dangerous close to a bottom as well. The last leg on the 8 hour almost looks like 5 waves down but I count 11 waves on the 4 hour which means we may need 1 more low before its over. The 4 hour RSI is also diverging big time. Also, The euro has gone up for 7 days straight. It almost feels like a min bubble. I suspect traders are Euphoric right now regarding this pair. Also as you recall, I did not suspect the Euro to surpass 1.3948 for a diagonal scenario (post # 479). We made it to 1.3926. Id be ready for anything this morning.

Yeh, I'm in the ausie-kiwi as well from 1.1833, italm. the expanded flat that looks like it finished yesterday wass my reasoning. so pretty much looking the same way like you at that one. except, if the pair decides to retrace more of the first big 5 waves down.

Hey guys,
Looking at the GBP USD 15, I think we missed the top of wave 2. It appears to have completed an irregular flat and topped at 2.0295. We are well into wave 3 of 1 down but its only the first leg of wave 3. You could get in an put your stop at 2.3 or wait for a short-term reversal and try to catch the 3 of 3 down. Today should be a good day for dollar bulls. In light of what I see with the GBP/USD, I'm incline to think the EURO may have topped at 1.3926 for the reasons I state in my previous post.