A break below 232.97 signals a 3 of 3 down so we should get a big push if broken.

Hey guys, unless this is a complex b wave, I believe were headed much lower. Although we still haven't got a strong push down we would expect in a 3 of 3. Keep stops tight.

Interesting article on Blomberg. So far the Neikei is up over 133 points. The article states this is due to credit worrys easing. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...Sfg&refer=home
The markets have been up I don't know how many days now. The bulls have already declared victory and most believe we are only headed up from here. Typical of a wave C of 2. The final stages of the C of 2 is Euphoria.
This is why I love Forex so much. A big move in the markets usually lags a big move in Forex, at least thats what Ive noticed in recent years. I usually know if the markets will be up or down the next day based on what the Yen pairs did the night before. Yet the media always finds reasoning of some kind of news event that happened that morning. Now the Yen pairs are plummeting but the markets are up. Hmm...are those same bulls headed for a rude awakening as early as tomorrow? Who know? I just trade what the charts tell me and not what the herd is doing. Thank you Mr. R.N Elliot.

Hi italm31
Do you have same views on GBP/USD and USD/JPY ?
Both have 5 waves down, hence maximising the move on GBP/JPY. TIA

[quote=Picolo]Hi,

joining the discussion on the euro - as to the last move, for now I do label it NOT the way u suggest, blueman. I feel it's an impulse. What I can do though as an alternative to Jamie's count, is label it a finished five wave impulse all the way from 1.336 to 1.3927 where the fifth wave is the extended (equals the distance travelled in waves 1 and three together) and is labeled like Jamie has presented today (for his alternative it is a third wave though). It fits into the following alternate count I have been considering for a long time..... and have kept a count on the daily charts of EURUSD going upwards from 1.163 in a triple "W-X-Y-X-Z" zig-zag! That was inspired by the unimpulsiveness of some of the upward pushes, as well as the "unhealthy" and unimpulsive overlaps all the way.... Anyway... for that count... today's top at the 1.393 region is nice... because at that point legs 1.3262-1.3851 (589 pips) and 1.3360-1.3927 (567 pips) are very equal in length - which in turn is quite typical for zig-zags. For that alternate - a major top can be in place or very close!

For a count like that... as an alternate - please see the chart below.

Happy trading.

i think after wave X as you label we are in leading diagonal as i will label another wave a which start from 1.2483 (end of wave X),the wave which start from 1.3350 is wave b (double zigzag) in my opinion,i am waiting for start large wave c(around 1.4000 to 1.3350 at least) to compeleted wave b of the big second zigzag then start wave c to break 1.4000 for probably end of large wave B start from 1.1640...
blueman

certainly a possibility,blueman... for me that's just another alternate... for now surely we might get a push to the upper line (looking at my previosu chart). An overshoot of that line would be another meaningful possibility, since diagonals tend to end in a last exhaustive move, which is thn rapidly retraced all the way back.... I can even label my whole W-X-Y-XX-Z as a diagonal triangle which is a BIG fifth wave for the rally starting in year 2000-2001.

Price is currently testing the 161.8% extension of 2.0366-2.0233/2.0345 at 2.0131, so a bounce from this level is possible. However, the structure looks bearish as the GBPUSD could be entering a 3rd of a 3rd wave down. If this is the case, then we’ll see much lower levels relatively soon (a break of 2.0043). This very aggressive bearish count is intact as long as price is below 2.0224.

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As for the USDJPY and the Yen crosses, I am still a believer that wave c of 2 is underway towards the 118.00 area. Allow for a dip below 114.50 to complete small wave ii this morning, but after that the short term trend is up according to this count (and possibly up hard). Best opportunity might be NZDJPY as Kiwi looks rather bullish itself.

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As for that Kiwi chart, here it is...

Near term, expect a drop below .7064 to complete a the correction from .7185 before the next advance. The confluence of the 38.2% of .6824-.7185 / 9/12 low at .7044/47 is potentially strong support.

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I have noticed that there are some posts about the stock markets, so why not show a chart of the Dow...

The decline from the top is obviously in 3 waves. However, that decline is sharp and with where the Dow is in the larger wave structure it seems unlikely to me that 12518 is the bottom (unless this is a big triangle) as a larger flat correction is probably unfolding. Treating the decline to 12518 as wave A, we need to look for the top of wave B. Wave B itself is a complex W-X-Y correction. Wave X is an expanded flat. Wave Y of B is underway now and there are 3 points that I am watching for a reversal. The 61.8% extension of wave W at 13560, the 78.6% retrace of wave A at 13700 and the 100% extension of wave W at 13892.

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Jamie,

While you're at it. What's you take on the crude oil, especially the daily ?
We are at a turning point and i think that might help to forecast the USDCAD.


Thanks.

Serge

I agree on the DOW count completely... Same on my chart. I'll strees also that I think given all the underlying trouble in the financial system (and it's far from gone and forgotten... i mean the credit crunch and subprime)... I would expect the correction to develop in something more than just an A-B-C in the Dow. I'd see a possibility of it going quite a bit lower in a verry choppy and chaotic manner... the downturns in the stock market are something special and panicky... we all know that.... and we all know how sick they can look..... (years 2000-2002 for example reference).
Added to that, the market stopped at a cluster of four distinct fibo projections two of which I had already drawn in the beginning of last year and they start at as far back as the 1980s... So we have "financial sector problems" to create a reversal in the social mood (the panic) + "technical pattern analysis" + "fibonacci"... For me that's enough to look at a possibility of considerable downside....

This is the weekly, crude is tracing out wave v of 3 in the 1,2,3,4,5 from the 99 low. The next big move should be in wave 4 back to 49.90. I'll post the 240 minute chart next to show wave v of 3 in detail to see when it might come to an end.

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Scratch the 240 minute...I'm having problems with data. Here is the daily. Again, the rally from 49.90 is wave v of 3 (1,2,3,4,5 from 1999). Within the rally from 49.90, the current rally is wave v of 3 also. So, we need a 4th wave that is likely to end near 68.63 or so before a rally in wave 5 to a newhigh in order to complete the rally from 49.90. What we are looking at then is a big topping process in the next couple months with a fairly wide range but ultimately a return to the 50 level.

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For weeks I kept on focusing on that wave 4 that you are showing on the weekly.
It looked to me like an impulse 5 waves down, but i could not place it in sequence. Especially since it seems that the begining of it just got breached, so that couldn't be a larger wave 1.

Thank you so much.

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