this is very great to develop elliott to another case same as commodity thanks
blueman

... was actually my best elliott wave call ever when it bottomed at the 50 bucks in the c wave... the day of the bottom was the same day I flipped the coin from bearish to bullish... best call ever by far... (and a few very, very, very rich people now after they took the profits at the end of last week......) The feeling of it working out just like u draw it... is why EW rocks, when it works out... it's great.

Jamie,

The rally from 1.9649 to 2.0365 looks impulsive with a 5th wave diagonal, which I label wave 1. I see the down move underway currently as a correction of this wave 1 which ideally should retrace into the 61.8% - 78.6% area between 1.9802 and 1.9922.

A break below 1.9649 would invalidate my count.

On a larger scale, I label the move from the 1.7 level to 2.0651 as wave 1 and the move from 2.0651 to 1.9649 as wave 2 (which retraced about 30%). So on a larger scale, if my scenario is right (I may be crazy for being the only one with this count among you guys), we are in wave (1) of iii of 3.

This is certainly a valid count. I think the most important thing near term is that Cable is headed lower. The structure of the decline will tell us what the next move will be.

zeev posted exactly the count I have for the gbp's move.... for that same reason I had the possibility of eurusd possibly already done with it's rally as well, except in eurusd the 5th wave played out in an extended wave, whereas in a diagonal for gbp. which was displayed by the eurgbp breakout. the eurusd has been going sideways though which is typical of 4th waves, that suggests there may be another push upwards... and a continuation of the eurgbp explosion in it's 3rd wave...

Zeev,
I just returned to the post of GBPUSd u showed and to my quick reply after that... Was in a hurry previously and failed to read your longer-term outlook on the pound, and said that I completely agree with your interpretation. What I completely agree upon is the count of the diagonal in the chart u have posted. For now I am under the oppinion as everyone here on GBP heading lower... And the thrust out of the fiagonal shoul retrace at least the diagonal - so at least to the ~1,996 4th wave low.

As for the longer term outlook, I would really appreciate seeing how u label a Weekly graph cause I have been scratching my head hard over that one...

Good luck all.

Hey guys,

Heads up on usd/chf.

I believe we are in the final stages of wave ii of 3 that should top around 1.1980. This pair, and I believe the other major usd pairs, are completing their wave ii corrections for a beautiful setup for Sept 18... (Third of a third may start before the meeting).

This third of a third should take us to new all-time lows for usd/chf. We're looking at a move of at least 1000 pips, but more likely 1500-2000 pips.

Yes, you're right, I think I'm the only one here bearish of usd (that's why I said in that post that I may be crazy). I'm having trouble with saving my charts right now, but I'll post my count as soon as I figure out what the problem is.

it can be correct?

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Yes, blueman, in my opinion your interpretation can work out if u assume a bigger correction unfolding later. u could certainly try and play the "c" of "B" wave on the long side. Some people here seem to agree on a bullish pound later on so u might catch a third wave instead of a "c" of "B" - that's the beauty of elliott waves - u can count them differently at some point, but if u assume the basic rules, they could point in the right direction for an entry anyway.

In light of the weakening pound, here's a possible view on what could happen to the GBPJPY cross IF it just doesn't go collapsing from current levels (but seeing the other yen cross resilience don't feel it's gonna happen just yet). I think there is a possibility it could play out quite sideways - choppy with some strong moves in both directions. Or it could impulse up from the end of today's possible correction which was a great possibility today to trade the "c" wave after a zig-zag "b" (for those in the european time-zone though). It depends on whether wave B ended as a triangle today or allready earlier in a flat.

If it was the triangle then we could see it choppy at these levels while the pound is heavy in the other pairs (GBPUSD, EURGBP) and then spike higher sharp to complete the "C" wave in an impulse.

Or if the "B" was flat, we could face a diagonal triangle - something indecisive - cause the pound might be weak in the other pairs, but the general yen weakness while in a correction might drag the GBPJPY slightly higher in a choppy manner to complete a "C" wave.

So... quite a lot of possibilites... another one is the one italm here must take as his number one count - let me guess... my a-b-c today is actually a 1-2-i-ii decline and we are about to enter a iii of 3 massive decline... And I'm not ruling that out. The only reason I feel we might see a bit more of the upside are the daily charts and studies - I would like them to completely offset the big sell-off and then plunge lower without obstacles. So that we can all enjoy a year 1992 or year 1998 repeated and completely short the GBPJPY. Kidding.

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Ty for this count Jamie, I've been having trouble with this one.

Another point to consider, as Ital has been mentioning quite a bit, is that despite some pretty impressive panic in most markets on Aug 16th and despite the probability that the worst of the subprime story has yet to develop (based on reset dates I mean), people seem to have already pushed what happened aside. Imo, this psychology seems to indicate we have further downside.

An interesting comparison can be made with 7 years ago (though on a different scale most probably), we had a couple of pretty strong panic days in April '00, and then the market seemed to go to sleep for the summer before the real action to the downside started in the fall...

Spin,
fall is always the killer...

Hey everyone,

I would like to take a step back and put into historical perspective what is going on in the markets currently and to see what we can expect in the future. To do this, I will have to take you back to the 1920's. As you all probably know, the 20's was a decade of a credit-fueled market rally which started in 1922 and ended of course in 1929. What is so strikingly similar with the current rally that started in 2002 is that up to 1927, by and large, it was a professional's game; the public did not participate. It was the similar type of rally as today, steady mark-ups, healthy corrections, etc. By 1927, the pros on Wall Street were very worried about a credit bubble (although they didn't call it that at the time), just like today's pro's worried for much of this year. As the market continued to rally this year, the pro's became more and more worried (we had a 450 point drop on Feb. 27, then we had this 1500 point correction dubbed "credit melt-down"). Similarly, with all the worry in 1927, equities finally started to sell-off. And just about everyone on the Street understood this sell-off to be correct. And then something started to happen. One after the other, equities began flying, sometimes 20-30 points in a single day. What happened was, and this caught the pros by surprise, was the fed interfered... (the fed gave a "shot of whiskey" to the markets, as one fed official said (forgot the name, sorry) ).

This is of course a little synopsis but what I'm trying to paint here is that we're not in a 1929 credit melt-down (I do believe, however, that we will be in a few years). We are in a 1927-type correction carried out by pro's. (I believe this correction has ended on August 16.) We still have a few years (maybe it'll be a perfect symmetry - 2002-2009, just like 1922-1929) for the credit problem to really become exacerbated that when the sell-off does come, it'll be unbelievably brutal, perhaps much more so than 1929. (This is what Prechter keeps talking about since 1992. I think he's spot on except his timing is off by about a pair of decades.)

In the meantime, markets will continue to unprecedented new highs, assets in general will see record highs as well, and the victim will continue to be the USD.

This one really IS a funny feeling... when I posted my count for the GBPJPY just half an hour ago... I made a joke about the 1992 or 1998 YEN plunge - and I really scrolled back in my chart just to find a big plunge so that we could laugh...

And then I decided to look how that one really developed... much to my surprise... see the daily chart from 1998 below...

The high was reached in a diagonally looking push (not analysing it's internal structure thoroughly). Then came the first move down - 10 figures it was and I label it "A or (1)". A recovery - "B or (2)". Then a really scary plunge of 22 big figures - we might try labeling it (3), then wait for a (4) and a further move down... But since I know the future for this chart (a nice "advantage" by the way - hehe) - I will label it "1". Then came the long correction - with a difficult to read middle - the small "b" was a pain. But when it came to the end - since it had entered the price territory of (1) I will label it "2". The interesting thing I notice here is in the indicator below - see the MACD - it came back to neutral exactly at the top of "2".... and then u all see what happened... don't even care how we label it.....

Now look at the daily chart as it is right now and how we feel about it... strikingly similar at least to me (ok, back then the pattern played out quicker, but let's just ignore the time aspect - we are possibly in a different "level of waves". Here we are - thinking how do wew label the 3 waves lower and what to expect next:
* some want 1-2-3 and are waiting for a 4 to end...
* some want (1)-(2)-1 and are now waiting for 2 to end...
* Jamie says it's an A-B-C with an A-B-C following - he's waiting for the C to carry us higher now, then lower again...
* but truth is... "we've been there, done that"...

The setup is strikingly similar. Even the moves - back then they were shorter in time and a bit shorter in distance...

So to end... I'll finnish with the same thoguht I said in the previous post:
I would like the daily studies to completely offset the big sell-off and then plunge lower without obstacles. So that we can all enjoy a year 1992 or year 1998 repeated and completely short the GBPJPY. But this time I am not kidding. I'm dead serious...

Happy trading!

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