Elliot Wave Trading - Page 4

Jamie Saettele · #46 (**permalink**) 06-18-2007, 08:25 AM

I agree with the longer term count that has the dollar rallying in wave C up close towards 90.

Jamie Saettele · #47 (**permalink**) 06-19-2007, 11:13 AM

I watching the EURGBP closely. The pair could continue to fall, but an a-b-c correction may be over at .6728. Given the proximity of .6728, there is little downside risk right now. If .6728 gives way, then look for support near .6700, which is the previous 4th wave and the 50% of .6535-.6867.

serhito · #48 (**permalink**) 06-19-2007, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele

In order to fully understand EW, you should read The Elliott Wave Principle, by Frost and Prechter

Jamie,

Thanks for the advice. I read the book and it has very valuable information, however it is hard to go from the theory in the book to actually applying it. There are so many rules and guidelines that for a newbie, it is easy to be confused.
I find "Elliott Wave Principle" by Robert Balan easier to read and apply.
But to be honest, nothing replace the valuable input that you and other members give on this forum. Thanks a lot.

Serge

Jamie Saettele · #49 (**permalink**) 06-20-2007, 07:50 AM

Serge,

I couldn't agree more with you that going from the thoery to the actual application is very difficult. Start with weekly and daily charts, where the wave counts are clearer. Zoom all the way out and see if you can read the count. Once you get used to seeing the "right look", you'll be able to look at a chart and immediately be able to see if a there is a workable wave count. like anything, it takes a lot of practice. I have been doing this for years and find new tricks all the time.

serhito · #50 (**permalink**) 06-20-2007, 01:55 PM

Jamie,

I know you are busy writing a lot of articles, but would it be possible to pick one pair (ex :EURUSD or any one you like), and if you could post the charts you are looking at ? The idea is to be able to follow you're reasoning on a regular basis. Every 2-3 days on a daily chart. If you could state what kind of correction you think we might be in, it would be easier to go in the book and look for the theory on it. When i read analysis, it usually gives levels, but i don't know why they are so important (i'm sure i am not the only one lost).

Where i am getting to basically is, could we ALSO give this forum an educational orientation ?

This is just a suggestion, depending on your availability.
Thanks a lot.

Serge

serhito · #51 (**permalink**) 06-20-2007, 02:01 PM

i just finished my last post and found your great article on EURGBP that basically explains what i suggested.

Never mind then...

Thanks.
Serge

serhito · #52 (**permalink**) 06-20-2007, 04:05 PM

Jamie,

I have a few questions on your EURGBP analysis.
1) The correction ABC, would you consider it being a simple zigzag correction for now ?
2) Is the depth of wave B rather unusual ? (i measured 78.6%)
3) The reason for .6535 to hold, is that to still be considered a wave 1,2 of a greater magnitude ?

Thanks.

Serge

Jamie Saettele · #53 (**permalink**) 06-21-2007, 11:51 AM

The a-b-c correction from .6867 is a flat correction. In a zigzag correction, wave b would retrace no more than 79% (78.6%) of wave a. In this case, wave b retraced a little more than that. It doesn't really matter though what the correction is. The important thing to know is that we are in a correction that is a larger 2nd wave and that wave 3 is likely to begin in the next few weeks and be very strong.

serhito · #54 (**permalink**) 06-21-2007, 02:16 PM

Jamie,

I thought that by knowing which type of correction you are dealing with, it would help figure out how deep the correction will be. I thought zigzags unfold in 5-3-5. Wave A seems to be a 5 wave down. In a zigzag, wave C = Wave A or 1.618 x Wave A. Correct ?

As far as the whole strategy of wave analysis goes. You try to identify a 5 wave pattern since it can either be a Wave 1, 3, 5, A or C. Then you try to rule out the one that don't apply anymore. For example you can probably find out a wave 1 versus a wave 3. The tricky part is to rule out an impulse versus a correction. That's why you look for the rule where wave 2 will not retrace lower than the beginning of Wave 1, otherwise it is considered a correction. All that in the hope of catching a Wave 1+2 to enter there, in order to ride the Wave 3. Is that basically what you are trying to do ?

Thank you so much for all your help.

Serge

Jamie Saettele · #55 (**permalink**) 06-22-2007, 09:01 AM

What you are saying is true but for trading purposes, keep things simple. Look for what I call the 'dominant pattern' and work from there. Don't work with a currency pair if there is no dominant pattern because then you'll end up trying to fit price structure into a wave count. For example, Kiwi looks confused right now so I won't touch it. On the other hand, the EURUSD has been tracing out very clear 5 wave impulses (higher) so I know to trade from the bull side.

Yellowlion · #56 (**permalink**) 06-25-2007, 03:33 AM

Hi All,

Hope everyone had a splendid weekend.

Last week, according to my primary count, the dollar began it's decline to a mid-summer low. For the week the September dollar lost 0.49 to close at 82.11.

For my primary count, I'm looking for a final low to be put in by the dollar, although I have raised the target level to
a band of 80.25 - 80.75. The decline could very well be swift with the bottom in as early as the second week in July but evidence of an August bottom does exist.

I expect the 82.00 level to be defended and we could see a bit of dollar strength early this week. This would be a good area to mount an attack on 83.50 at which a break above would give focus to the alternate count.

All the Best,
Yellowlion

Jamie Saettele · #57 (**permalink**) 06-25-2007, 08:58 AM

I agree with you. The 3 wave rally from the late April low keeps the dollar vulnerable to a new low. I agree that the low will be marginal and that a significant dollar rally is due.

Jamie Saettele · #58 (**permalink**) 06-26-2007, 07:59 AM

I see Cable coming down towards 1.9885/9900 in a small wave c (in order to complete the larger 4th wave) before a thrust to a new high in wave 5.

Jamie Saettele · #59 (**permalink**) 06-27-2007, 08:56 AM

It looks like 1.9627 is the end of the correction that I was looking for. 3 waves are visible and impulsive upside action is visible on the very short term charts. The correction that just played out is most likely a 4th wave in the 5 wave sequence from 1.9621. A 5th wave rally is expected to register a new high (above 2.0014) and potentially 2.0130 before a reversal. Wave 5 (from 1.9927) would equal wave 1 at 2.0086 (measured objective). Since the rally unfolding will be a 5th wave rally and the euro is embarking on a 3rd wave rally, there is considerable upside potential for the EURGBP.

Jamie Saettele · #60 (**permalink**) 06-27-2007, 09:05 AM

Watch out for a GBPJPY reversal (higher). It is possible that a complex correction is unfolding from the high (W-X-Y). A dip below 243.95 would complete a 5 wave decline from 246.96 in wave Y and lead to the next rally to test 250.00. The setup to trade this is: wait for a decline below 243.95 and a subsequent rally through the bottom of wave W (at 245.19) before getting long against the swing low.