Hey guys,
Well things are getting interesting. In order for my count to be right especially in the Euro/JPY, we can't go much higher. Todays move certainly put a damper on the bears being in comtrol. Although price still doesnt put my count out of the running, I have to admit, Im a little more doubtful than I was say yesturday. If I must find a silver lining, it would be this. Vertually all the experts Bloomberg interviewed in the last hour of trading are now so overly bullish, Im guessing their are more bulls now that there have been in a long time. What do you guys think? Could this be it?

Today was a classic to remember. The gbpjpy diagonal triangle retracement on the 30 min chart was the swiftest I had seen in a very long while..... everything was there from the start - bottoming at the old 3 week low, then breaking the diagonal structure to the upside, coming back to the trendline to "kiss it good-bye" and then never look back for 6 big figures. it was so sick how fast that one happened yet so sweet. what was so great about that today - the counts had played out and shown light a very long time (by 1pm european time) before the FED, thus setting up a very nice buy on EVERYTHING. Power of waves at it's best. The FED only added half of the gains in GBPJPY. The media tomorrow will atribute all of the gains to the FED... We all here know it was more than just FED.

And EURJPY likewise played out the flat scenario I was talking about here for the last 4 days or so... bottoming today at the 158,8 and offering just the risk:reward I wanted when breaking up above the 159,15 level... I missed the move lower from 160,20, but this one I bagged.

BUT... putting aside the euphoria of victory, as we know "nadezda pogibaet poslednei" (or "hope dies last" in Russian). I still see a possible bearish resolution to this all from here, but that one cant take too long to unfold if it is to be at all..... What JohannS pointed out about EURUSD is critical for a bearish count, especially assuming the 1.5 year long trendline was hit in a wave which almost everyone here does label a fifth wave from 1,3826 or so today. I do give it a few more small subdivisions to unfold higher, but not much if the EURO wants me to consider a bearish outlook and not join ZEEV on the outright bullish side. There is some room for eurjpy, gbpjpy as well. But what a blow that would be though if we topped right after SUCH a FED?!?! As Thomson's IFR news stated after the cut - "This cut is enough a cut to show that the Fed does not want to go cutting more and does not want to see what happens if the cut doesn't work well enough. If 50 bps already at this point were needed "to promote modest growth", what would further cuts promote?" This cut not working out would be huge. But if the "doesn't work" alternative fails - I am joining zeev and following the frenzy. Can't beat the people buying, although we know, if we head higher from here - we head a lot lower from where we end this. It's gonna be sick one day...

Leaving u with the GBPJPY which today ended the long a-b-c-d-e triangle correction and shot higher. The long triangle being there after the initial rally from 219 makes me consider the bearish case still possible. Cause I never like triangles in second waves. They are more "b" waves or "4th" waves for me. The "2s" are usually the sharp ones. This here can't be a "4", but it sure can be a "B". So when this rally ends - there is a chance of an abrupt end. And the daily studies.... well... the last few days made them go back to very neutral... that is what I was looking for and did show last friday or in the weekend for the point where a reversal could strike. If they start rolling over - it might end the fun of buying.

Hope you had a nice day as well.

Good luck.

Pic

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Spin, yes. Looking at the GBP developing very cautiously. It would be a possible a-b-c ending there as well, with "c" being extended. Although it might be a "3rd" also. This is a classical case of 61.8-76.4% retracements one after another and the decision what happens next... See how according to zeev's count (published last week) the whole move lower from 2,037 that ended today retraced just a tad more than 61,8% of the whole rally from 1,965 (and he labels the move lower a "2"). And I believe it did in 3 waves (third being very extended) up to now - those can be a 1-2-3 (not likely cause 4 would retrace too much for me), 1-2-i- in ii now (where a 61,8% retracement fits great), or just an a-b-c(2) and this is the new rally.... So what happens when the pound hits your mentioned resistance zone, is crucial. It's a classical 61,8-61,8 triangling as I call it - I've seen it all too often.

I think I might be on to something. This forum makes it very difficult to contact people privately and start a group. Is there an active chat room for Ellioticians?




Please tell me what you think

Picolo take a look at Jan 3rd 2001, that's the day of the first rate cut in that loosening cycle, 50 points like today, the SP500 was up 64 points, all in all a very similar day. We all know the rest of that story. The top came on Jan 31st, 34 points higher than the Jan 3rd close.

I'm not suggesting this is the same (it never is), just that the surprise and euphoria we saw today will dissipate, just like last month the fear and panic went away despite the feeling everything was going down to 0, and then it's back to "normal", which is wherever the market takes us...

Will we get another wave down? I don't know, but I still think it's possible.

As for GBP my thought was that looking to trade a c of a 4th gives the possibility of getting a 3rd of a C (or 3rd of 3rd) down instead. I agree that it's not a very pretty c up for the bearish case, but neither is the move down a very nice a-b-c, for basically the same reasons (in both cases the possible c is much longer than the possible a).

God, the pound reversal worked out to perfection Spin. Just like we were considering yesterday night. It was so sick that I had to be off PC exactly the moment the last leg up started. But I guess you cant expect to earn all the money....

I hear u. I was asleep. Another wise man once said, "you snooze, you lose"
I see a possible top in the Aussie as we speak.

Hey Picolo,
Can you tell please me what trading software your using?

Heads up guys,
looks like the other USD pairs have some catching up to do with the buddy Pound. Possible tops in place in Euro, Kiwi, and Aussie

Again I must apologise about the big graph, but this is kind of important.

Guys yesterday's drop on the dollar index failed to reach the 100% of wave 3 which means it is still a valid count. There is a potential that this coming dollar strength might turn into a reversal rather than just a retracement. Possible tops on many majors againts the dollar.

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We may be at a fork in the road for the Usd/Cad. It broke past its wave 4 on 15 chart. However, 5 min is showing 3 waves up thus far. Will we see wave 4 or will it make new lows.

Hey Picolo,
You stated you don't like to see triangles in the 2nd wave. What if its not a triangle? I see 7 waves in all so it could be labeled as a double zigzag so the 2nd wave scenario, in my view it shouldn't be ruled out in the GBP/JPY.

As for software - i use metatrader and reuters extra metastock for charting. When I say I see a triangle - I refer to a triangle with a bullish resolution, which started at the end of "A" and ended at yesterday's low. From there a push upwards, which started yesterday and I think will continue a few more sessions. But then a potential bearish reversal.

Yeah it started moving up right after I went to sleep, nice ending diagonal and all...

Another wise man said "your setups will materialise when you're away from your screen"

Im in the market for a new charting software so thank you, ill check it out.
In the meantime, I got your count from the the post you posted up and were on the same boat for now. I see a move down (surprise, surprise) but Im favoring the double zigzag. We clearly have 7 waves (albeit flat, but 7 waves nonetheless) from the 219 low. Also, Euro Yen still hanging just below that 78.6%. IM not sure it wants to go higher. But like I said guys, for my count to be correct, Im at a fork in the road. Its now or never.