Elliot Wave Trading - Page 51

spin the o · #**751** (**permalink**) 09-20-2007, 09:41 AM

Picolo I would love to agree with you 'cause I'm pretty exposed to euros yet have no control over that (long story), but one conclusion seems obvious to me, even in your bear count, that the C wave down is far from over, which means your proposed wave (2) could retrace all of wave (1).

And I'm not so sure about that leading diagonal of yours. Waves 3 and 5 are ugly as hell for impulses, wave 4 bottomed lower than wave 2...Makes me think this could be a "3".

Spin

JohanS · #**752** (**permalink**) 09-20-2007, 09:47 AM

Jamie I have a question, would this wave 2 correction on Usd/Yen be a possible flat? I was looking at the Nikkei 225 and started labelling, it does look like a flat, but a triangle correction is also possible. But the c wave does look like 5 waves to me on Usd/Yen when looking at the daily chart.

However I think in any case both would end up with the same count as the wave d and e for the triangle count would become the wave 1-2, unless the wave d is not in 5 waves.

Edit : the problem is that there is a gap on wave y for the Nikkei, I seldom see labeling on charts with gaps, but how would you label waves with gaps?

Jamie Saettele · #**753** (**permalink**) 09-20-2007, 11:27 AM

It could be a flat, but it would be an irregular flat in that wave C fails to end above wave A. Don't be too quick to get bearish the USDJPY short term right now though. The decline from 116.31 could be a 3rd wave, so if we do get a 4th wave correction that is followed by a 5th wave lower, then the bearish opportunity would come on a 3 wave setback (which would likely be deep since it would be a 2nd wave).

JohanS · #**754** (**permalink**) 09-20-2007, 11:30 AM

Well this potential 3rd wave is really deep, if this is just wave 1, wave 3 would be....OMG

kcar1 · #**755** (**permalink**) 09-20-2007, 11:31 AM

Hi Guys

The USDJPY still looks bullish to me, we are well within the limits of a wave 2 correction by my count.

spin the o · #**756** (**permalink**) 09-20-2007, 11:40 AM

Jamie do you have a gold count?
Any thoughts appreciated.

Thanks.

Spin

JohanS · #**757** (**permalink**) 09-20-2007, 11:46 AM

Well any counts are still possible until a break of the low at 112.62, but the potential is there, I don't think that this big wave is wave c as it is nearing 361.8 of wave 1/a.

spin the o · #**758** (**permalink**) 09-20-2007, 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by edisko

Picolo,
my favorite count is very similar to your count with big (B) from previous post. Only difference is in your (A). My alternative count is on the chart bellow.Ed

Attachment 8218

Ed I just saw this, the thing with this alternate is that waves 1 and 4 of (1) overlap, which makes it harder to go with wouldn't you agree?

The other thing I'm wondering is is it possible that the whole correction is what we label (A), with everything else being a bunch of ones and twos?

Sure is consistent with the free money policy we're observing these days...

Jamie Saettele · #**759** (**permalink**) 09-20-2007, 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spin the o

Jamie do you have a gold count?
Any thoughts appreciated.

Thanks.

Spin

Spin

Here is a gold count. Gold has just broken out from the triangle, which was wave 4 within a 5 wave cycle that began at the 1999 low of 253.20. A bullish objective for the end of wave 5 is 855.82, which is where wave 5 would equal wave 1 in percentage terms. Wave 1 was 253.2-338, which is a 33.5% gain. A 33.% gain from 641.10, which is where I believe wave 5 begins, would place gold at 855.82. This is one reason why I am so bullish on the Australian dollar (over the next few months). AUDCAD long and GBPAUD short look like great long term bets to me.

blueman · #**760** (**permalink**) 09-20-2007, 12:56 PM

anybody can count euro in weekly chart,thanks in advace
blueman

serhito · #**761** (**permalink**) 09-20-2007, 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele

Spin

Here is a gold count. Gold has just broken out from the triangle, which was wave 4 within a 5 wave cycle that began at the 1999 low of 253.20. A bullish objective for the end of wave 5 is 855.82, which is where wave 5 would equal wave 1 in percentage terms. Wave 1 was 253.2-338, which is a 33.5% gain. A 33.% gain from 641.10, which is where I believe wave 5 begins, would place gold at 855.82. This is one reason why I am so bullish on the Australian dollar (over the next few months). AUDCAD long and GBPAUD short look like great long term bets to me.

Jamie,

Are you still bullish EURAUD ?

Jamie Saettele · #**762** (**permalink**) 09-20-2007, 01:20 PM

Whereas the GBPAUD has broken below the long term trendline, the EURAUD has not. This makes sense given that the EURGBP is in wave 3 higher (still plenty of room to go as well over the next few months I think). Your question is whether or not I am bearish....but what time frame are you referring to?

serhito · #**763** (**permalink**) 09-20-2007, 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele

Whereas the GBPAUD has broken below the long term trendline, the EURAUD has not. This makes sense given that the EURGBP is in wave 3 higher (still plenty of room to go as well over the next few months I think). Your question is whether or not I am bearish....but what time frame are you referring to?

EURCAD

Sorry i should have been more specific. You analysis of the 4 hour chart was to look for buying opportunities after the C wave around 1.6228 and 1.5802. We still haven't hit those levels yet.

Jamie Saettele · #**764** (**permalink**) 09-20-2007, 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by serhito

EURCAD

Sorry i should have been more specific. You analysis of the 4 hour chart was to look for buying opportunities after the C wave around 1.6228 and 1.5802. We still haven't hit those levels yet.

I still like buying dips on the EURAUD. I should mention that although I am very bearish longer term on the GBPAUD, the near term should see at least a rally to 2.3450 or so (if not higher). The 1.5802/1.6228 is the 100% extension of wave a and the 61.8% of the prior rally

Jamie Saettele · #**765** (**permalink**) 09-20-2007, 01:47 PM

If you check out the GBP crosses, you'll see that I am still looking for one more advance http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currenc...301492356.html

Wave iii may be about to begin NOW. A drop below 229.45 is not out of the question but weakness should be marginal. The decline (which I see as wave ii) ended at the 78.6% of the previous impulse rally.