Elliot Wave Trading - Page 558 - DailyFX Forex Forum

Big Mike · #**8356** (**permalink**) 06-09-2008, 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by American Trader

I bought a bike a couple weeks ago and I'm biking everywhere locally out of spite for gas prices..........and because I'm getting fat. (Probably more the latter).

Perfect scenario for stock market bears would be to have the futures up very modestly (Dow below 40) at the open tomorrow and volatility (measured by the VIX) to remain high. This should mean continuation of downward pressure on stocks this week. As long as the VIX remains high this week, stocks should continue to be sold off this coming week.

American-T

Congratulation for buying a bike and using it, too.
You were right, the stock market opened up modestly higher, but could not sustain the pressure today.
On top, Nikkei was heavy to the downside (about minus 2%) and Europe was mixed, but more down then up.
Oil and gold, bot marginally down by few dollars.
So, the pressure cooker is on.
Mike

texas pipster · #**8357** (**permalink**) 06-09-2008, 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JimboFX

Guys,

I just to point out something from a TA analysis, nothing to do with EW's. I'm keeping an eye to the resistance upper trendline. If that gives way then you can expect a lot of traders going long as it would be a strong confirmation. I'm sure I'm not the only one seeing that trendline.

Jim,

Thanks for posting that. I think sometimes I forget to look at the basics like that. One question - is that a gap down a few bars below the middle circle you have drawn? If so, measure where it occured - have you heard of a 50% gap? A gap that predicts the end of the move is another 50% away. Saw them all the time in commodities.

Personally, I'm still a tad bullish (108-109 target) this pair but will continue to trade the swings be thy up or thy down. (had a brief short on last night, and long this morning...just trying to go where the price is going at the time)

TP

Big Mike · #**8358** (**permalink**) 06-09-2008, 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by texas pipster

Jim,

Thanks for posting that. I think sometimes I forget to look at the basics like that. One question - is that a gap down a few bars below the middle circle you have drawn? If so, measure where it occured - have you heard of a 50% gap? A gap that predicts the end of the move is another 50% away. Saw them all the time in commodities.

Personally, I'm still a tad bullish (108-109 target) this pair but will continue to trade the swings be thy up or thy down. (had a brief short on last night, and long this morning...just trying to go where the price is going at the time)

TP

Can you explain little better what you mean? (the hi-lited part). It sounds interesting.

USDJPY keeps bumping its head against, what appears to be, a glass ceiling at 106.3-106.4, which is the upper trendline of Jimbo's.
So far, 3 times over the last few days. Is it time to give up?
If rejected in a forceful way, it will mean an end of correction.
My feeling is that, since the last 5 waves ended up in truncation at 106.3 last week, we will NOT see another high soon.
Mike

brad_1199 · #**8359** (**permalink**) 06-09-2008, 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeremy Demunter

Hi there Brad,

Could you post a longterm chart where you see that triangle plz? I have a different count where the "recent" low near 95.00 is the end of wave E of the (wave B) triangle.

Thanks a lot,
Jeremy

I posted a few more charts with the original posting if you want to have a look at them

POST# 8351 on page 557 of this forum

texas pipster · #**8360** (**permalink**) 06-09-2008, 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big Mike

Can you explain little better what you mean? (the hi-lited part). It sounds interesting.

Mike

The picture should clear it up. Don't laugh but these were (maybe still are) common in the commodities. Possibly due to the fact that the markets open/closed 5 days a week instead of 1 for forex so there was a lot more gaps.

As far as USDJPY - If the trend line above does give way way, I would look for a burst to the up. Kind of like a pressure cooker as all those who were previous sellers at the trendline run to cover.

texas pipster · #**8361** (**permalink**) 06-09-2008, 04:04 PM

This is merely interesting....I'm not advocating anything.... But the next time you are looking back at gaps....measure to see where they occured in the swing.

texas pipster · #**8362** (**permalink**) 06-09-2008, 04:20 PM

Maybe I was using the wrong term...

Quote:

The term measuring gap is also used for runaway gaps. This is an interpretation that is hard to find examples for, but it is a way of helping one decide how much longer a trend will last. The theory is that the measuring gap will occur in the middle, or half way, through the move.

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...d_gap_analysis

texas pipster · #**8363** (**permalink**) 06-09-2008, 04:46 PM

Okay - last post of the day.....I did this one for the bears.

American Trader · #**8364** (**permalink**) 06-09-2008, 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big Mike

Congratulation for buying a bike and using it, too.
You were right, the stock market opened up modestly higher, but could not sustain the pressure today.
On top, Nikkei was heavy to the downside (about minus 2%) and Europe was mixed, but more down then up.
Oil and gold, bot marginally down by few dollars.
So, the pressure cooker is on.
Mike

Hey Mike. The VIX remained elevated enough today to keep the very short term outlook pointing to more selling. The real encouraging action today for the bears is that the Nasdaq diverged heavily from the blue chip indexes. So the Nasdaq led the rally up, let's see if it leads it down as well. To me that divergence is a sign that there's an exodus underway out of higher risk stocks. Risk aversion and fear MAY be coming to the forefront. JPY pairs should be watched.

This should be a fun and interesting week.

Talk to you later.

American-T

Big Mike · #**8365** (**permalink**) 06-09-2008, 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by American Trader

Hey Mike. The VIX remained elevated enough today to keep the very short term outlook pointing to more selling. The real encouraging action today for the bears is that the Nasdaq diverged heavily from the blue chip indexes. So the Nasdaq led the rally up, let's see if it leads it down as well. To me that divergence is a sign that there's an exodus underway out of higher risk stocks. Risk aversion and fear MAY be coming to the forefront. JPY pairs should be watched.

This should be a fun and interesting week.

Talk to you later.

American-T

Good point about nasdaq.
For those of you who remember year 2000, nasdaq crashed much sooner than DOW. Risky stocks frequently are the ones that drop first, as they are obviously more vulnerable.
The action of today is pointing to more selling pressure, DOW recovered slightly, but only small percentage of last Friday drop.
Mike

JimboFX · #**8366** (**permalink**) 06-09-2008, 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by texas pipster

Jim,

Thanks for posting that. I think sometimes I forget to look at the basics like that. One question - is that a gap down a few bars below the middle circle you have drawn? If so, measure where it occured - have you heard of a 50% gap? A gap that predicts the end of the move is another 50% away. Saw them all the time in commodities.

Personally, I'm still a tad bullish (108-109 target) this pair but will continue to trade the swings be thy up or thy down. (had a brief short on last night, and long this morning...just trying to go where the price is going at the time)

TP

TP, I don't see any gap. At least not where you pointed out.

But it sure looks like it's going higher. I'm on the sidelines for now. I like your idea of inverted head and shoulders by the way.

Regards

fx_addict · #**8367** (**permalink**) 06-09-2008, 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by texas pipster

Nice little 4th wave pullback in progress on the AUDUSD 5 minute chart.

Will look to get short around 9560.

Hey TP,

Get ready. We are almost there

F A

texas pipster · #**8368** (**permalink**) 06-09-2008, 06:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fx_addict

Hey TP,

Get ready. We are almost there

F A

Thanks for the heads up fx. Unfortunately, I am about to go out for the evening but I will check the status when I return.

texas pipster · #**8369** (**permalink**) 06-09-2008, 06:09 PM

I would like opinions on this. Please put any bearish/bullish bias, Dow Jones, Oil, and other fundamentals, aside and just look at the technicals.

The choppy downward pattern does not look impulsive from what is labeled (4). I am suggesting it is a B wave down to be followed by a wave C up to complete the correction. The PTI is not indicating enough momentum left in the market to drive prices below the wave (3) low at this point either.

If it is a B wave, it retraced 50% of wave A today. Do they normally retrace 61.8% of wave A?

EDIT -
Also consider this. We had 195 days for the move down. We only spent 38 days to the peak at (4) correcting that. I think 74 days would be a 38% time correction. Basically, I think with large moves like this, they take longer to correct than most of us would like.

TP

brad_1199 · #**8370** (**permalink**) 06-09-2008, 08:19 PM

I am not completely sure which way we are going in USDCHF at the moment, but I remain bearish due to the large down trend we have seen in the last few years, However I may be wrong, there is a Hammer formed on the Weekly chart at the bottom of the run down, which says to me major reversal... We just have to keep watching... It will tell us which way it wants to go...

Here is the Daily Chart of USDCHF