SCENARIO 1
EUR/USD TOPS AT AROUND 1.62-1.63 THEN 176=1.62-1.63X108.64-107.97

SCENARIO 2
EUR/USD REVERSES AT A TARGET OF 1.48-1.50 THEN 176=1.48-1.50X118.91-117.33

SCENARIO 3
USD/JPY HEADS TO 100 THEN 176=1.76X100

SCENARIO 4
USD/JPY HEADS TO 112 THEN 176=1.5714X112

WHICH ONE SOUNDS LOGICAL? THE ANSWER IS ...IN THE IRRATIONAL MARKET

THE ONLY FACTOR NOT CONSIDERED IS THE TIMING OF THE ACTIONS

SO IF ANYONE CAN DETERMINE THE VALUE OF ONE OF THESE 3 PAIRS THEN MAYBE HE HAS GOT THE VALUES OF THE OTHER TWO.THATS THE MAGIC WITH CROSS PAIRS.

Hey Fidelio,
Wow! Dude you must be some kind of genius...lol! Cool stuff. But you may be playing a dangerous game. Picking a top in the EJ now is too risky.
Im bearish Euro and bullish Yen, but that doesn't mean the top is now.

Now heres what i think is going on with stocks and oil. Since traders seem to equate a rally in oil with a decline in stocks (for now anyways), I
don't think that trend is over. I for see one more leg up in oil and likewise, see one more leg down in stocks. Seeing this is a wave 5, maybe it will
be short lived...DON'T COUNT ON IT. commonodies wave 5s tend to be extended so V of 5 may be no exception, while a new low in Stocks could
cause some major panic selling. Next week should be interesting.

Hi Italm, Fidelio and Brad,
This pair has stalled now at 169.50 closing at highest for the day. So is this the point to got short as like each Monday USD/JPY will be supported in Asia session so does EUR/JPY. Can you pls review the current situation and give your opinion. Thanks

EURJPY is giving reversal warnings at the moment.. If price ends next week down we will have confirmation of a reversal to the downside... I was hoping price would leave a hanging man this week, but it didn't.. Too bad That would have been a good reversal confirmation..

Price finished this week leaving a long gravestone doji, this is a warning to look for a reversal but price can continue higher still.. This is more like a warning candle. With confirmation of a down move, a reversal would then be confirmed.

Price remains in a Bull trend here if price cannot finish next week to the downside.. And if price does continue higher.. I suspect it will go much higher.. We should know by monday or tuesday next week which way this beast wants to go..

And since we can see that price found support right at the first availabel fib support on the downside, My bias must remain that price will continue on an up move.. Price would have to finish down next week for my bias to change..

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I think this market has the potential to go either way at the moment.. We need candlestick confirmation of a down move next week, if we don't get it, I suspect price will break out to the upside ... I was looking for reversal confirmation this week, but it was not given..

Hey Guys,

Here's a chart of recent price action since June 26, 2008. It looks like a flat correction has unfolded, which of course means the trend is still up. Sure, there are all sorts of bearish candle formations and everybody senses an impending top, but according to EW the uptrend continues. Those candle formations and the overall JPY price patterns only 'indicate' that a top could be near. They don't mean it's going to happen today. One of the neat things about using Elliott Wave analysis is that the market will tell us when a top is in place by the evidence of a five wave decline. Until we see that though, the Risk:Reward is still in favor of the bulls.

It's a known fact that wave fives in currency/commodity markets tend to extend. So it makes sense then that you would want to participate in those extended moves for as long as possible. If EUR/JPY is indeed in a wave five rally then, we should participate in as much of that as possible.

Rather than take several losses trying to pick a top, I'd rather continue taking bullish setups for as long as the market allows. Eventually yes, a top will come, and I may then take a loss as price reverses. But, I'd rather take the one loss there over several losses from trying to pick the top.

Have a good weekend guys.

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Too Bad we didnot get the candlestick confirmation of a down move this week like I was looking for.. Price now still remains in a bull trend until confirmation of a turn.. I will look to cover my short at the sunday open..

If price heads higher early next week I'll be a Bull once again..

AUDJPY seems to have faked us out ! I thought we had bearish reversal confirmation on the weekly chart of AUDJPY when I saw the hanging man right after the shooting star under the 78.6 retracement level, but price has gone on to close the week above prior highs.. Apparently this pair is going higher until we get better confirmation of a reversal.

Given the angle of the upper bollinger band I would say price is still in the midst of a bigger upward move now that we have price closing higher confirming a further up move..

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Here's an update to the count I'm following in EUR/CHF. The first chart is the one I posted the other day. The second is the updated daily. The third one is short term price action showing wave 'C' of wave 'Y,' followed by the first part of the next bullish rally.

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We should see the AUD/USD bottom next week and set up for a nice long trade. One more small decline will complete the A-B-C correction, and will also fall enough to retest a major resistance line as support. The first two charts show the progression of the overall pattern, while the third chart shows the short term view of the correction.

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The EUR/USD is correcting as expected and should be setting up for a nice rally. The short term chart posted by diver looks pretty good and should resolve itself by next week. The wave that he labled as 'W' was 238 pips long. Assuming the 'X' wave triangle completes somewhere near 1.5875, that gives a 100% extension for wave 'Y' at 1.5637. That number is right between the 50.0 and 61.8% retracement levels of the five wave rally. That area should serve as strong support and a good place to look to get long.

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Here is a bullish count for the EUR/JPY. If this count works out, there is still a lot of upside potential remaining.

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Friday's close left us with a big question although the bear count isnt the most preferable.

Scenario 1
We have completed the wave 3 and now we are in wave 4 b which probably has reached its target. Wave 4 c must not exceed 164.96 for the bull count to be valid.

Scenario 2
We have begun Wave 5i. Price should not reach the 165.31 as a retracement.If price goes to 168 and then resumes upward thats a good sign for this scenario.

Scenario 3
We are in a complex correction form.Flat - zigzag- and wave C (which has started on 27-12-07 wave A and 17-03-08 wave B). Wave B must have ended in 169.66. For this scenario to be correct we have to exceed 165.31 and 164.96 to be valid and of course not register a new high.Some other users present it as a potential triangle e wave. More or less is the same.

The scenario that I favour is the first one. I think its the last chance of the bears to turn this beast around so they will give it another shot. Also another drop will cause RSI(14) to enter into the buy area although price will be near the historic top.

If we register a new high then scenario 2 is automatically out of play.

But be careful with the other two parts of the eur/jpy cross rate. Usd/jpy is also at crossroads.Near the 200MOVAVE.

This fight is about to show who the winner is and it will be for sure this week.

GBPJPY did a nice job of faking me out last wek too I've still got my eyes on it though... Price is coming up under a long term down trend line.. If price can break through the line and close a day above it, My bias will be medium term bullish...

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The EUR/USD is clearly bullish. As far as USD/JPY, the recent three wave decline tells us the trend is still up. So that's bullish for EUR, and bearish for JPY. Both point to higher EUR/JPY.

The charts below show the counts I'm following in USD/JPY. On the daily chart, price hasn't yet reached the 50.0% fib retracement of the wave one decline. So there's still upside potential there.

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