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09-28-2007, 09:19 AM
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Also, the USDCAD presents a very low risk long entry right now. If any of you follow my COT analysis, then you know that we are historic extremes in positioning and big turns usually happen at these points.
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09-28-2007, 10:34 AM
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Things are getting interesting here with the USDJPY. My count is bullish as long as price is above 114.00 and there is potential fibo support at 114.50/70 but watch out because the Dow is already down 50 and it is possible that the USDJPY is in a small 3rd down now (after the break of 114.89)
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09-28-2007, 10:47 AM
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There is little doubt in my mind that the rally from 1.4060 is a diagonal as a 5th wave. BUT, I think now that it is a diagonal in wave v of 3 rather than wave 5. I am looking for a wave 4 to end near 1.4060 (which likely takes all fo next week) and for wave 5 to make yet a new high (maybe 1.4300 or even 1.4400) before reversal potential comes to the forefront.
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09-28-2007, 11:09 AM
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Low risk long opportunity in the USDJPY. Enter now, stop below 114 (113.95 or so), and target is above 117.12 (118.00)
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09-28-2007, 11:11 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele
There is little doubt in my mind that the rally from 1.4060 is a diagonal as a 5th wave. BUT, I think now that it is a diagonal in wave v of 3 rather than wave 5. I am looking for a wave 4 to end near 1.4060 (which likely takes all fo next week) and for wave 5 to make yet a new high (maybe 1.4300 or even 1.4400) before reversal potential comes to the forefront.
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could you label euro in weekly chart,thanks
blueman
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09-28-2007, 12:59 PM
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Jamie,
When you mention "reversal points", what do you actually look at to confirm that it has indeed turned ?
Have a great weekend.
Serge
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09-28-2007, 01:50 PM
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The only way to know that a turn has occurred is after the fact. In analyzing, I attempt to identify potential reversal points with fibonacci/former congestion levels. When the market is trading at record levels (like now), I use fibonacci extensions. Still, if looking for a top then there is nothing better than a clear 5 wave decline followed by a clear 3 wave rally to signal that a top is in place. I know that many on this forum like to look at very short term charts such as 1 or 5 minutes. Personally, I find those time frames very unreliable and prefer 60 minutes and sometimes 15 minutes. Of course, we are all guilty of breaking out own rules. Have a good weekend.
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09-28-2007, 02:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele
The only way to know that a turn has occurred is after the fact. In analyzing, I attempt to identify potential reversal points with fibonacci/former congestion levels. When the market is trading at record levels (like now), I use fibonacci extensions. Still, if looking for a top then there is nothing better than a clear 5 wave decline followed by a clear 3 wave rally to signal that a top is in place. I know that many on this forum like to look at very short term charts such as 1 or 5 minutes. Personally, I find those time frames very unreliable and prefer 60 minutes and sometimes 15 minutes. Of course, we are all guilty of breaking out own rules. Have a good weekend.
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So let's say your are seeing a potential reversal point on a 60 min chart. Do you look for the 5 wave decline / 3 wave rally on the same timeframe or do you go to a 15 min. ?
Thank you so much for all your help. I have learnt so much since i have discovered your message board.
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09-28-2007, 02:33 PM
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I would stay with the hourly... I think it is important to stay consistent. If you are switching back and forth between charts, then you will try and see things that are not there. This is an opinion obviously but I think that it is the correct way to approach the market.
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09-28-2007, 02:34 PM
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Ouch how steep can Euro go?
I think Jamie probably zoom into 15min charts to look for reversal patterns especially on such extreme levels, on not so extreme levels, 1hr charts would be safer.
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09-28-2007, 03:40 PM
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stocks
Here's what I'm seeing in the Nasdaq.
Mimum reversal should be in the 2648 area, which coincides with the beginning of the wave v triangle.
The S&P 500 makes it more difficult to have a bullish (1)-(2)-1 bullish alternative, but it's technically possible I think. Either way this looks like a nice setup to the downside.
Spin
edit: The v label may be only smal wave 3 of v, which means there could be another top before the bigger correction, which would make today's action small wave 4 of v.
Last edited by spin the o; 09-28-2007 at 05:08 PM..
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09-28-2007, 03:44 PM
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I'm really starting to wonder about the Euro.
We have analysis from Jamie showing it should go up against CAD, AUD and GBP, yet we expect it to top, but not GBP. I'm looking at the possibility that we're staring at a bunch of ones and twos within a very large V instead...
Spin
Last edited by spin the o; 09-28-2007 at 04:10 PM..
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09-28-2007, 04:57 PM
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Eur/Usd
--------------------------------
( Long Term Wave-Count ) 9/28/07
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Last edited by marketwavez2; 09-28-2007 at 04:59 PM..
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09-30-2007, 06:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele
Also, the USDCAD presents a very low risk long entry right now. If any of you follow my COT analysis, then you know that we are historic extremes in positioning and big turns usually happen at these points.
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Hey Jamie
I just got what I believe to be a new a new perspectus on the Cad. I think were in a final wave of c large degree B wave in an expanded flat. Wave A was 23.6% of wave 1 which is typical of an expanded flat and wave B is presently 261.8% of wave A. Usually wave B tends to be 161.8% of A in an expanded flat but given the extreme bearishishness of the dollar, I dont think thats unusual. (Just as the Euro thus far traced out 11 waves in a B instead of 3 waves). Anyhow, I think what you have post on your hourly is the final leg (wave v) of c of larger wave B.
Last edited by italm31; 06-10-2008 at 09:03 PM..
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09-30-2007, 07:41 PM
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for steady nerves
Attached is a study of eurusd. The aim is to set off a passionate discusion.
Italm, Zeev, of course Jamie and all, I did it for you  .
Blueman - compulsory reading  .
More difficult than chop a wood to work on this.
Ed
eurusd.doc
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