Funny you posted this. I was allowing for one more low myself even though I originally thought we had a bottom overnight. I'm allowing to 1235 maximum on the spx. That would be a .618 of the recovery rally from around 1200. So far we have hit the .382. 1245 would be the .50.

I am with you on that. But I believe that we already are in a recession period. Taking under consideration the magnitude of the problem my projection is 2-3 years of significant economical slowdown

Here's my look at crude at the moment. This chart is very simple in nature. We are in a very defined down channel on the hourly charts. EW count notwithstanding I would say that until this channel can be broken to the upside we are still going lower.

I'm going to look at oil the old fashioned way. If it's stays in the channel it's heading lower-if it breaks out it's going back up. :-)

SOUNDS GOOD TO ME!

beautiful...simplicity works

Here is the situation, where i can't really decide. To be bear or bull?
I put two separate charts for every count to keep it as clear as possible.
The third one is a bit older chart, based on which i would rather be a bear for Gold, but then we need another move down, below the 916. Also it shouldn't violate 950 in the wave (4) correction now.
But then again, based on "right looking" i'm more for the bullish picture for Gold
right now.

Well, looks like we need some patience, the pattern should clear up pretty soon...

Charts:

8 Hours, bigger picture
1 Hour, Gold bulls.
1 Hour, Gold bears.

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Jamie I see on your analysis blog C waves composed out of 3 waves. Do you prefer the ABC notation instead of WXY? Here it is in EURCHF chart it Euro Crosses Still Bullish

I just want to say it felt really dam good to nail the bottom of this triangle in USDCAD.. This trade has taken a lot of patience... And to my surprise the U.S. Dollar will gain .. OMG.. .. Anyway.. I'm sittin pretty Kudos to anyone else that caught the bottom..

Everyone and their brother must have known about this trade by now...

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Hey Guys,

I've recounted my longer term views on the JPY crosses. Here's what I see going on in EUR/JPY. The monthly chart shows that price is in a final fifth wave to complete a 'C' wave of a larger fourth wave flat. The weekly chart shows a blown up view of that 'C' wave. The daily chart shows the recent consolidation as a triangle.

There are a couple of interesting things to notice on the weekly and daily charts. First is that wave 'v' of wave '3' is equal to the 161.8% extension of waves 'i thru iii' of '3.' That's a textbook EW relationship. The other thing to notice is the triangle. One of the triangle guidelines states: 'Usually, wave 'C' subdivides into a zigzag combination that is longer lasting and contains deeper percentage retracements than each of the other sub-waves.' This triangle in the EUR/JPY fits that criteria. Wave 'C' is an a-b-c-X-a-b-c (complex), lasts longer in time, and is the deepest correction of the other waves in the triangle. I have not ever seen a triangle that fits all of those guidelines.

My view for this one is that we'll see higher prices for a while longer before 'The Almighty Turn' that we're all waiting for.

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My count for the monthly USD/JPY chart remains the same, but the count for the weekly is a little different. On the weekly, it doesn't look like the correction is finished yet so I would expect some consolidation or a correction before another rally higher to complete wave two. This count is tracking well with the GBP/JPY, which I'll put up next.

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It's possible that we're also seeing an ending diagonal in the GBP/JPY as well as in the USD/JPY. That would make sense why the weekly chart sports an initial three wave decline rather than a five. The weekly chart can be labeled as an a-b-c for wave 1 of the big decline. The third chart is the daily leading diagonal that I posted the other day. Before, I couldn't really see how a leading diagonal fit in with the larger pattern, but under this overall count it does seem to work.

Under this count I'd expect a sell off for the next few weeks or so and then a nice rally higher to complete wave two. Then... 'The Big Decline.'

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This trade has been a long time coming. I think the majority of people here will be on board with this one, so we'll all make some $$$ together.

-And good job catching the lows.

Justy... Very Nice work on the USDJPY chart... Looks really good... Very probable

Before we let a good trade slip away... Have a look at the daily chart of EURCAD close up and you will see price has now gapped higher off The Up trend line in what I believe to be a wave 3 of of a 5th wave... Therefore I excpect a large 3 wave movement upward now.. We're sitting in a very nice spot to hop on board with longs this week coming up too... I would put sure money on this one after that gap higher, and also coming out of a Bull Flag on the Daily chart.. It's Looking really good for bulls in ths pair right now.. And if my count is correct.. there is a whole lot of Bullish potential in this pair still.. Hmmm .. makes me wonder what the hell is going on in USDCAD and EURCAD... Maybe USDCAD is in a major upward reversal in and the EURUSD has much higher to go yet...

Regardless.. this is a great play .. I'll be long this week coming up.... Too bad I missed the Gap.. too busy with other things.. Oh well.. still a very decent entry..

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Justy,
I agree on this count (also Jamie has presented this count). I think we have ended wave i of 5. So a retrace is possible (my argument is supported by a potential drop of USD/JPY to 104-104.50 area) so I expect prices to pull back to 162.94-164.28.