Elliot Wave Trading - Page 66 - DailyFX Forex Forum

JohanS · #**976** (**permalink**) 10-02-2007, 09:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele

Technical analysis is a statistical study and the more data that you study, the more reliable the study is. Here is an analogy that I think makes sense. Calling a multi-week top on a 5 minute chart is like studying 30 years of weather data and extrapolating the results out to thousands of years (global warming).

Yeah much safer to look for 5 waves on 1hr chart or minimum 15mins chart. Sometimes when I see 5 min charts, I really get a headache cos it seems like everything can be seen as long as my eyes want to see it.

Take care Jamie, we need you here or else we would have to start trading using Boris's TA

, Boris's TAs are interesting though, simple and yet effective, but I prefer to have some EW counting.

spin the o · #**977** (**permalink**) 10-02-2007, 09:29 AM

Jamie I hope you're doing better now.

Regarding the yen pairs, do they all have to turn together? I also disagree with Ital regarding GBPJPY but the CHFJPY C wave up looks potentially complete to me...

Spin

p.s.
I almost got baited into a debate on global warming, but I guess we'll keep that for a Sunday

Jamie Saettele · #**978** (**permalink**) 10-02-2007, 09:34 AM

The CHFJPY does look complete to me too and the CADJPY might also be ready to fall. The JPY crosses do not all have to turn at the exact same time but it is likely that they will turn within a few days of each other.

italm31 · #**979** (**permalink**) 10-02-2007, 09:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by italm31

Heads up guys,
Possible ending diagonal at the 78.6 % retracement of last nights decline on the GBP/JPY.

Hey Jamie,
Duly noted, as I too respect your opinion as well. Id just like to say that when I say heads up, I mean keep an eye out for. Thats all I mean. I don't get in until my count is confirmed to me on a larger chart. Once I get confirmation on BIG charts, I'm still not in, I wait for wave counts on smaller charts to get me in for a better risk reward. I'm not trying to pick a top on a 5 min chart although I could see why one might think I am. I agree with you, that is the stupidest thing someone could do and it is financial suicide. I'm just watch the GBP/JPY cause the rise since the bottom has been overlapping whether on an hourly or a 15 min. Thats consistent with a correction. I don't expect anyone to to get on that. On that note, my diagonal scenario may have just been proven correct but Id like a break below 235.91 to confirm at top. Once I get my confirmation, Ill be looking at the smaller charts to get me into a trade.

Jamie Saettele · #**980** (**permalink**) 10-02-2007, 09:43 AM

Italm, I understand what you are thinking as far as trying to zone in. Just from experience though, I have found that this practive leads to confusion for me. On the other hand, trading is very personal so whatever you feel comfortable with is what you should do. Keep up the good work.

kcar1 · #**981** (**permalink**) 10-02-2007, 09:44 AM

Hi Guys, with 3 waves down on the H4 it may be possible that the bull run euro will be left intact for now. Being a 4th wave on my count makes it possible that a much complex correction might be forming. Wave 4 of a lesser degree sits around 50% fibo (1.4064) at the moment, could be a potential support for continuation into 5th wave.

JohanS · #**982** (**permalink**) 10-02-2007, 09:53 AM

The 1.4210 point on Euro becomes important now, as long as the next upmove does not go past there and consecutively makes a new low, we get the 5 waves down on a 4hr chart.

Jamie Saettele · #**983** (**permalink**) 10-02-2007, 09:53 AM

NZDJPY has stalled at the 61.8%. This is something to watch. I keep thinking that the JPY crosses will continue a bit higher mostly because I still some upside potential for the USDJPY BUT one by one....the JPY crosses appear to be losing steam so I feel like the next big decline will happen soon.

Also, October is historically a bad month for stocks and with the correlation between stocks and the JPY...look for the JPY to gain this month...especially against high yielders like the NZDJPY.

Jamie Saettele · #**984** (**permalink**) 10-02-2007, 10:33 AM

I've got to get back to chicken noodle soup and gatorade but I'll leave with a few observations.

It looks like the EURUSD is tracing out a small 4th wave and a drop below 1.4139 will complete a 5 wave decline from the top. Look to get bearish on a the pullback for the 3rd (or wave C).

USDJPY still trying to push higher but the near term pattern is not that clear. As long as price is below 117.12, it is possible that the entire rally from 111.59 has unfolded as a triangle. If this is the case, then the decline should start very soon (probably this week). The other count, which I have favored but am questioning now due to the lack of upside acceleration, has the USDJPY rallying through 117.12 to complete wave 2 before the decline. The longer term implications are both bearish however.

italm31 · #**985** (**permalink**) 10-02-2007, 10:53 AM

Its obvious to ellioticians that tops MAY be forming on Yen pairs as well as USD pairs. (I like the USD/CAD as well for a bottom). Also, what a difference a day makes. Just yesterday, Bloomberg was putting in article after article about how the credit buble was subsiding...lo and behold...all while markets were up substantial. Why couldn't they put those articles in before the day began. Today on Bloomberg seems to be the credit bubble theme all over again, as well we the CDO problem back into focus. Greenspan can't seem to make up his mind. First he says recession, then he say no I think were out of danger, nows hes starting to shift toward recession again. These articles always seem to put up after the fact while markets are already down. Hmm, fear seems to be creeping back in and the news seems to be lagging the wave principle yet again just when tops look to be in place. This week should prove to be very interesting.

spin the o · #**986** (**permalink**) 10-02-2007, 11:13 AM

Be careful guys I have the same count as Jamie to the t for CHFJPY.
Just in case you're looking for a contrarian indicator

italm31 · #**987** (**permalink**) 10-02-2007, 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by italm31

Hey Jamie,
Duly noted, as I too respect your opinion as well. Id just like to say that when I say heads up, I mean keep an eye out for. Thats all I mean. I don't get in until my count is confirmed to me on a larger chart. Once I get confirmation on BIG charts, I'm still not in, I wait for wave counts on smaller charts to get me in for a better risk reward. I'm not trying to pick a top on a 5 min chart although I could see why one might think I am. I agree with you, that is the stupidest thing someone could do and it is financial suicide. I'm just watch the GBP/JPY cause the rise since the bottom has been overlapping whether on an hourly or a 15 min. Thats consistent with a correction. I don't expect anyone to to get on that. On that note, my diagonal scenario may have just been proven correct but Id like a break below 235.91 to confirm at top. Once I get my confirmation, Ill be looking at the smaller charts to get me into a trade.

Hey guys,
Just like to show how my diagonal set-up was unfolding...(yes this is a 5 min and Im still looking for a break below 236.08 whic is wave 1 or A down). Please keep in mind, this is borderline scalper set-up and by no means should be used to enter for several day. You could but you'd be gambling. You would need a break below at least 235.89 (preveous wave 6 in the double zigzag and that too would be aggressive!). Once you have that then if you like you could wait to see if 5 wave decline unfolded followed by another abc for better risk reward. That would be my multiple day set-up. As you can see, it takes alot for me to get into a multiple day set-up. What I'm showing here right now just means I'm expecting price to go where the first diagonal started at 235.90 or so. This is a scalp set-up. You have to take charts you see in perspective. If your getting in with a 5 min chart, you obviously are looking at a smaller degree. So you could be in for several mins to maybe an hour or so. If your looking at a 15, you could be in for several hours. If your looking at a 4 hour, you may be looking at several days. (I hope you get my drift). I'm always aware of the degree I'm trading which is why I don't stay in very long. If and when I get my confirmation on a 4 hour chart, I will be in for a longer haul.

hardeek · #**988** (**permalink**) 10-02-2007, 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele

Cable is still bullish as evidenced by the 3 wave decline from 2.0494. Subjectively speaking, I favor the idea that a larger correction is unfolding from 2.0654, maybe a triangle or even a flat. Why? Because all of the other pairs strongly indicate that we are in for at least a few weeks of $ strength (if not more). With this in mind, I am looking for a top and reversal following a break above 2.0494, against 2.0654.

hi jamie can i know the pts. 1 2 3 4 5 in this chart

italm31 · #**989** (**permalink**) 10-02-2007, 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by italm31

Hey guys,
Just like to show how my diagonal set-up was unfolding...(yes this is a 5 min and Im still looking for a break below 236.08 which is wave 1 or A down). Please keep in mind, this is borderline scalper set-up and by no means should be used to enter for several day. You could but you'd be gambling. You would need a break below at least 235.89 (previous wave 6 in the double zigzag and that too would be aggressive!). Once you have that then if you like you could wait to see if 5 wave decline unfolded followed by another abc for better risk reward. That would be my multiple day set-up. As you can see, it takes alot for me to get into a multiple day set-up. What I'm showing here right now just means I'm expecting price to go where the first diagonal started at 235.90 or so. This is a scalp set-up. You have to take charts you see in perspective. If your getting in with a 5 min chart, you obviously are looking at a smaller degree. So you could be in for several mins to maybe an hour or so. If your looking at a 15, you could be in for several hours. If your looking at a 4 hour, you may be looking at several days. (I hope you get my drift). I'm always aware of the degree I'm trading which is why I don't stay in very long. If and when I get my confirmation on a 4 hour chart, I will be in for a longer haul.

Hey guys,
For a multiple day set, heres how I would go about it. It would have been cool had we gotten an ABC after the 5 wave decline from last night (or what I think is a 5 wave decline...some would argue it to be a 3 wave decline...thats what makes it difficult and the reason y its still unclear) but we didnt. It appears like a double zigzag. So now we need a drop below wave 1 or A for confirmation. keep in mind this is a 4 hour chart so what you could do is either get in below that drop or turn to a 15 min and look for 5 waves. It may be over sold so you could get in on a pull back of a 15 min. Thats how I would do it.

JohanS · #**990** (**permalink**) 10-02-2007, 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hardeek

hi jamie can i know the pts. 1 2 3 4 5 in this chart

Hi I think Jamie meant that this upmove is wave B of a flat and we will be expecting a 5 wave down for wave C to complete the big correction.

It's pretty hard to label the shorter term chart as everything seems to overlap. But this is how I see it currently, ever since 2.0365, it looks to me that prices were making a triangle and it was completed last week with fast Cable gains. But it seems that Cable needs to make another high to complete the larger B wave.

Note that on the bigger TF I labeled b(red) at the bottom but on the hourly I labeled it much higher, does not make a difference to the big picture, just the counting.