Elliot Wave Trading - Page 661 - DailyFX Forex Forum

Jamie Saettele · #**9901** (**permalink**) 08-05-2008, 10:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by diver

Follow-up to my earlier post. Some bounce off of the morning low. Nothing impressive yet. Fib retracements should be (might be) challenged before another leg down I would think.

Gold, silver, & oil have also stabilized and bounced some as well. Should be some range trading before the big announcement this afternoon.

I am more or less with you here. While I do expect the decline to continue over the next several weeks...I think that we are in for a short term bounce to at least 1.5550 (maybe even today). A major reason to expect dollar weakness soon is the triangle count for Cable, which has been tracking well. An E wave should begin soon.

Jamie Saettele · #**9902** (**permalink**) 08-05-2008, 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by diver

Jamie,

The move lower in the EUR/USD from your labeled wave 2 high so far looks like it is in 3 waves. Even though it has moved beyond the wave 1 low could we still possibly be putting in a wave B of an irregular? OR, have we moved beyond the allowable distance to label it such? I'm just trying to find an alternate count to what you presented. Thanks.

That is certainly possible and is something that I have been thinking about all morning.

italm31 · #**9903** (**permalink**) 08-05-2008, 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele

That is certainly possible and is something that I have been thinking about all morning.

Hey Jamie
That is my favorored count as well regarding Euro.

tonyk · #**9904** (**permalink**) 08-05-2008, 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JimboFX

GBP/USD has come down to a good R:R entry for a long.

Under the triangle scenario D = .618 of B right now. Another good reason to get long.

Jamie Saettele · #**9905** (**permalink**) 08-05-2008, 11:55 AM

look for a low in the GBPUSD in the 1.9440/1.9470 zone. this is triangle support and a former support area.

diver · #**9906** (**permalink**) 08-05-2008, 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele

I am more or less with you here. While I do expect the decline to continue over the next several weeks...I think that we are in for a short term bounce to at least 1.5550 (maybe even today). A major reason to expect dollar weakness soon is the triangle count for Cable, which has been tracking well. An E wave should begin soon.

Jamie,

Not to be a pain but is there another way this count could be viewed? I always like to use a preferred and an alternate so I know what to expect. Could we just break down under the triangle support and keep going lower? If yes, how would you label it? Thanks. :-)

italm31 · #**9907** (**permalink**) 08-05-2008, 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by diver

Jamie,

Not to be a pain but is there another way this count could be viewed? I always like to use a preferred and an alternate so I know what to expect. Could we just break down under the triangle support and keep going lower? If yes, how would you label it? Thanks. :-)

Hey Diver,
I agree with Jamie, however your concern does have validity. We never know what could happen. I don't favor the triangle scenario but I do think we will somewhat of a retracement. This is a post I put up a couple of weeks ago when I called a top in the Pound. Under this scenario, we're in III of 1 down so we could go sideways for wave iv of 1 down or 3 can continue. However, should 3 down continue, R:R favors a long position soon of a flat position if your a bear. I would not take on any new shorts at this point in time.

Jamie Saettele · #**9908** (**permalink**) 08-05-2008, 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by diver

Jamie,

Not to be a pain but is there another way this count could be viewed? I always like to use a preferred and an alternate so I know what to expect. Could we just break down under the triangle support and keep going lower? If yes, how would you label it? Thanks. :-)

There could be a flat in which price does come under 1.9337 before we get final wave C that ends above 2.04. To me, the subwaves are very much a sign of a triangle.

diver · #**9909** (**permalink**) 08-05-2008, 12:42 PM

Just an FYI and to add something to an info overload. Here is a chart of the SPX. Now bumping up against a short term trend line drawn off of the last reaction high and the .618 ret of same. Interesting.

diver · #**9910** (**permalink**) 08-05-2008, 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele

There could be a flat in which price does come under 1.9337 before we get final wave C that ends above 2.04. To me, the subwaves are very much a sign of a triangle.

Thank you. :-)

italm31 · #**9911** (**permalink**) 08-05-2008, 12:59 PM

I don't know if the USD will fall following Fed comments but this may be a clue that she doesn't have much juice left.

aerocom · #**9912** (**permalink**) 08-05-2008, 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tonyk

Under the triangle scenario D = .618 of B right now. Another good reason to get long.

TonyK

I agree. D is a near perfect .618 of B and thus a low risk entry on the pound. Like targets are .382 of D an .618 of D foe a max 1.9911+/-

Good Luck.

aerocom · #**9913** (**permalink**) 08-05-2008, 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by italm31

I don't know if the USD will fall following Fed comments but this may be a clue that she doesn't have much juice left.

Italm;

Agree with the count on the USD/AUD. However, the likely target is in the .7673 range and no less than .8511 as the previous move, Wave 5 was an ending diagonal. I have wave 2 of 5 ending in the .8511 range.

Quote " A rising ending diagonal is usually followed by a sharp decline retracing at least back to the level where it began and typically much further." See Page 38 of Elliott wave Principle.

If we get a correction before the beginning of the ED, it will likely be a shallow a-b-c zig-zag pattern. Wave B though could retrace back to near the end of the 5th Wave ED.

Good Luck.

aerocom · #**9914** (**permalink**) 08-05-2008, 06:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justy10125

This is the daily chart of USD/CAD that coincides with your monthly chart. Once wave (C) is complete, then we'll see a massive shorting opportunity present itself. Wave (C's) are five wave moves, so we need to see a five wave rally before we start looking for a top. So far we havn't seen that. Wave i of C is still in progress.

Justy;

I am counting 5 up on the hourly chart. On the 15 min chart it looks like a triangle could be forming which would indicate to me that the current move, wave 1 is either over or nearing the end. Additionally, todays price stopped just short of the 50% fib retracement at an intersect with a long term downtrend line (resistance.)

I exited my long position and will be looking to take a long position near 1.0300 for the run up. Although I agree with your target C=A, I am also looking at the 1.0856 to 1.0916 area.

Thanks.

Good Luck.

justy10125 · #**9915** (**permalink**) 08-05-2008, 06:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aerocom

Justy;

I am counting 5 up on the hourly chart. On the 15 min chart it looks like a triangle could be forming which would indicate to me that the current move, wave 1 is either over or nearing the end. Additionally, todays price stopped just short of the 50% fib retracement at an intersect with a long term downtrend line (resistance.)

I exited my long position and will be looking to take a long position near 1.0300 for the run up. Although I agree with your target C=A, I am also looking at the 1.0856 to 1.0916 area.

Thanks.

Good Luck.

Hi Aerocom,

That extension was just to show the bullish potential of the USD/CAD. My targets, like yours, are quite a bit more conservatave though. I'm looking to scale out of my position in thirds. The first third at 1.0557 and the second at 1.0788. The last third I'll leave as a discretionary target for the potential of getting a runner.

I agree that we could see a pullback down to about the 1.0300 area, or even a bit lower to the triangle resistance line. That would be a high-probability area to get long again.