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08-06-2008, 10:21 PM
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cable
By the way here is the short term count I'm following....
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08-06-2008, 10:47 PM
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Posts: 205
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euro
Going into tomorrow's rate decision here is a another possibility. In my opinion everything is already priced in and we might see a reversal from the current levels. I haven't seen anyone with that count yet and it would be interesting to see if/how it plays out.
Just my .02 cents..... 
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08-06-2008, 11:15 PM
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Good for you Jimbo..
Yes, even with EW, we can not pick tops and bottoms..... just probable turning points and the best thing to do is what you are doing.
That is ... choose a high probability trade and manage scaling your trades as it gives more reason to trade that direction, otherwise, not to add on.
I also see the Divergence on the 1hr chart but not on the 4 hour chart.
On the 4 hour chart, that lowest low being predominant at the last part of the MACD, makes me think that this is just wave 3 of a higher degree wave 3 and the wave 4 of that higher degree wave 3 is just about to transpire as price completes its divergence on the 1 hour chart.
But on the otherhand also, in the past I have observed that divergence in ABC wave group may not be present, but it is present in the individual internal wave structure.
Right now, I am looking at the stochastics on the 4hour chart and it seems to be telling me a different scenario.
Just some thoughts
EG
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimboFX
EG,
you can say I'm happy....
In fact I'm scaling in a long position as part of my trading plan for GBP/USD. One thing I know is that I'm not that good of identifying turning points and most likely I'll be in a trade early. Sometimes the market takes me out of what later turns out to be a good trade so that's way I take 1/3 of my normal position at the time and then add to it at either better price or after a confirmation. I normally have a 100pips stop loss as I believe that 50pips move especially in cable is just a random noise.
Now back to the charts.....I see a divergence on 1H. Nothing yet on 4H or daily but in my opinion the price is due for some correction to at least the breakout point of what its former down channel which as of now is 1.9600 area.
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08-06-2008, 11:21 PM
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JUSTY CADJPY
Quote:
Originally Posted by justy10125
Hey Brad,
I got long this one at 104.50 and 103.50. I've got the stop-loss 25 pips below the wave (C) low, and nearly got stopped out today. But it seems to be turning up for now. The chart below is a five minute showing that the declines so far have been three wave moves, so the trend is up... For now at least.
I attended a webinar a while back hosted by Steve Nison and he was talking about candlesticks as they apply to the FX market. One of the points he made was that since the FX doesn't gap like the equities markets, some of the candle patterns are defined a little differently. He talked specifically about the bullish engulfing. According to his interpretation, the candle that we see on the CAD/JPY is considered a bullish engulfing.
Take that for what it's worth, but I think this currency is pretty bullish where it stands. We've got the bullish engulfing, plus a 'throw-under' from a well defined triangle so hopefully we can get a good rally out of it.
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Good post Justy 
I've been scrutinizing that candle in CADJPY all evening... I know it appears as a bullish engulfing candle at a glance... But when I zoom in on it.. The bottom of the candle starts just a tiny bit higher than where it should have.. So I'm kind of waiting to see what tomorrow will bring.. I know the pattern is there, and god knows price rejected that Wave "C" low of the triangle just in time to keep our bullish count active.. But it's this little tiny detail of the candle that's got me wondering... I've got my fingers crossed on this one.. I'm also holding long this pair, 1/3rd position at the moment for safety sake...
Would have been nice if price could have created a 100% iron clad candlestick reversal.. I'm always right in there checking all the little details..
I too have spent much time reviewing Steve Nison's work.. He's a great guy
Last edited by brad_1199; 08-06-2008 at 11:28 PM..
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08-06-2008, 11:33 PM
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FXCM
DEAR FXCM,,, what are you doing to this forum... ??? Your last page button doesn't even work in this forum, everyone here knows it and has voiced there opinions on this matter yet the problem remains, now I see you have upgraded the forum to show the charts in a pop out black screen when clicked on, that makes the charts even less viewable...
No Good People...  I'm sure I'm not the only one who thinks that !
I'm gunna have to start my own forex forum soon....
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08-06-2008, 11:58 PM
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Join Date: Apr 2008
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EUR USD
I am looking at this count right now. It's very bearish 
There's a confluence of fib around price zone 5256 -5275.
W3: 5275 = 2.618 of W1
Wiii: 5256 = 1.618 of Wi
I don't know how this fits into the bigger pattern of an expanded flat wave IV.
P.S. Why does the chart I post become very small now? People can barely read the number. FXCM, please fix this
Last edited by cmellon; 08-07-2008 at 12:13 AM..
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08-07-2008, 01:13 AM
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Join Date: Nov 2007
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GBPUSD 15min
Cable on the 15min chart is looking like it has formed a Symmetrical Triangle for the wave 4 inside the wave 5 of a C3 or a wave 3 down
Or this coud be the B inside a wave 4
Last edited by EG888; 08-07-2008 at 01:16 AM..
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08-07-2008, 01:55 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brad_1199
DEAR FXCM,,, what are you doing to this forum... ??? Your last page button doesn't even work in this forum, everyone here knows it and has voiced there opinions on this matter yet the problem remains, now I see you have upgraded the forum to show the charts in a pop out black screen when clicked on, that makes the charts even less viewable...
No Good People... I'm sure I'm not the only one who thinks that !
I'm gunna have to start my own forex forum soon.... |
are you also getting the massive linkbacks in your email?
maybe it is just the euro forum they come from but well over 200 tonight and still coming
this was no upgrade
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08-07-2008, 02:29 AM
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CODY B
Quote:
Originally Posted by CodyB
are you also getting the massive linkbacks in your email?
maybe it is just the euro forum they come from but well over 200 tonight and still coming
this was no upgrade
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Not sure what you mean by linkbacks.. But I haven't been recieving anything in my email from these forums...
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08-07-2008, 02:44 AM
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Guest Moderator
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JUSTY CADJPY
JUSTY... I have some good news for both of us regarding CADJPY... I spent the last 4 hours meticulously scrutinizing each candle, wave, and possible pattern on the monthly chart of CADJPY and I have come up with a very possible count here.. Which does favour large upside for us at the moment I didnot count these waves with a bias in either direction.. So I have come to this conclusion based on price movement alone..
I think there's a really good possibility that price is in a large long term wave 4 which will no doubt be a huge triangle. Wave "A" has completed and we are now in Wave "B" upward which has the potential to go very high.. Possibly even close to the previous highs at 125 or past there depending on what type of pattern we are tracing out.. All I know is I'm feeling much better about this long CADJPY trade.. And perhaps that candle yesterday was a Bullish Engulfing like you had mentioned in your post. On this pair I have to make a judgement call at the moment.. My bias remains bullish until prooven wrong
From the Daily chart Wave "C" will equal Wave "A" at 114.62 and since now I know price can get past there in this next wave up, 114.62 looks like a very achievable objective right now..
I saw Jaime's analysis on this pair on Dailyfx today .. He's calling for a drop in price :O --- Hmmmm makes ya think !
Last edited by brad_1199; 08-07-2008 at 03:27 AM..
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08-07-2008, 02:55 AM
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Registered User
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 1
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CADJPY
Where would be a good SL on this pair?
Quote:
Originally Posted by brad_1199
JUSTY... I have some good news for both of us regarding CADJPY... I spent the last 4 hours meticulously scrutinizing each candle, wave, and possible pattern on the monthly chart of CADJPY and I have come up with a very possible count here.. Which does favour large upside for us at the moment I didnot count these waves with a bias in either direction.. So I have come to this conclusion based on price movement alone..
I think there's a really good possibility that price is in a large long term wave 4 which will no doubt be a huge triangle. Wave "A" has completed and we are now in Wave "B" upward which has the potential to go very high.. Possibly even close to the previous highs at 125 or past there depending on what type of pattern we are tracing out.. All I know is I'm feeling much better about this long CADJPY trade.. And perhaps that candle yesterday was a Bullish Engulfing like you had mentioned in your post. On this pair I have to make a judgement call at the moment.. My bias remains bullish until prooven wrong |
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08-07-2008, 03:30 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 136
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brad_1199
Not sure what you mean by linkbacks.. But I haven't been recieving anything in my email from these forums...
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I think Cody means receiving email alert whenever there is a new post in the forum. I don't receive any email from this forum(Elliot Wave) but got bombed yesterday by the Euro forum. They sent me 100 emails. It's a pain...
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08-07-2008, 03:47 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 136
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Possible count for USD/CHF. I see more upside potential, but a short term retracement is imminent. Daily stochastics seem to have gone flat and are EXTREMELY overbought. 4 hr stochastics are already trending down.
USD/CHF 4hr
USD/CHF 15 min
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08-07-2008, 05:25 AM
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I got about 60 Link Back Emails from the EURUSD Thread too
Quote:
Originally Posted by CodyB
are you also getting the massive linkbacks in your email?
maybe it is just the euro forum they come from but well over 200 tonight and still coming
this was no upgrade
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08-07-2008, 06:41 AM
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Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 1,219
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brad_1199
Not sure what you mean by linkbacks.. But I haven't been recieving anything in my email from these forums...
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YES!!! ME TOO.
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