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Heh, my first attempt on Cable has failed and i had to give back some profits from the Euro trades the days before, so to say to pay the market taxes...

The good news is, that at least now everything fits more or less into one bigger picture.

In all three, Cable, Euro and CHF, the Dollar has moved impulsevely.
In EUR and CHF one can clearly counts 5 waves completed. In Cable it counts better with already 2 waves, so i have to keep this count now under doubts.

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After observing the price movements from todays morning in Cable and other two majors (EUR and CHF) i think i have to update the short term counts, adding two alternative counts.

1. Per "alt".
It's possible, that this last Dollar advance hasn't yet finished 5 waves.

2. Per "alt.2"
It's not a 5 wave movement for Dollar, but rather wave B in Flat correction from the last Monday (18 August). Although the current Flat scenario would be taking quite a bit longer then corresponding wave 2, but these forth waves could be tricky, so i consider this variant as yet possible.

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It is always possible that we get extensions...but in this case I would say that the possibility of a major extension is small due to the clearly sizable 3rd wave. Another sign that the USD trend is exhausted...at least near term...is the special report on the front page of the money and investing section of the journal about the USD reversal. title is "Historical Trends Suggest
That the Buck Is Back"

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Jamie Saettele is the author of Daily Technicals, Currency Crosses, and COT on DailyFX.com. He is also the author of the recently published Sentiment in the Forex Market.

expect a larger correction in the eurjpy. the pair has yet to reach even the former 4th wave extreme. fibo support extends to 161.29. eventually, i expect the rally off of the low to reach at least 164

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__________________
Jamie Saettele is the author of Daily Technicals, Currency Crosses, and COT on DailyFX.com. He is also the author of the recently published Sentiment in the Forex Market.

That's a good point (about an article), very good one, completely agree.
I myself also believe quite strong that at least against CHF the Dollar is either done or will be done very soon and also posted the longer term chart here the last Friday (along with some other people).
Not to tell about the Cable, where i even tried it but failed at the first attempt...
So, in general i'm quite strong convinced in the coming Dollar weakness, and even more, i'm aiming the new high in EUR/USD, at least somewere in the area of 1,63.

It's only that we are all used to wait for 5 wave movement and then setback in order to apply the best money management.
And we still don't have these 5 waves in none of the pairs.
That's the only reason i'm waiting for a kind of extension, so that the Dollar makes the new high and we give him a chance to retreat in 5 waves on smaller time frames.

On the other side the Dollar has (most probably) completed 5 fives in all pairs or about to finish doing that in some of them, but as it stands now, not all of them are going to make new lows, only Cable did that.

And here comes the question.
Would it be possible that we get the truncated fifth for the Dollar?
I mean, that the highs, we saw todays, are _the highs_ ?
I personally have never seen _real_ truncation in FX markets and I don't know if they more or less possible.
Some good examples would be just great!
If I see those examples, i would probably run bying CHF

there is certainly a count that allows for another usd low but the structure of the rally from the recent eurusd low should tell us with a higher confidence level what the next move will be

__________________
Jamie Saettele is the author of Daily Technicals, Currency Crosses, and COT on DailyFX.com. He is also the author of the recently published Sentiment in the Forex Market.

Agree, the new Dollar low could also come not in all majors.

Jamie - missed the big move on GBP/USD which been waiting for the last few months- urrgghh! Should we have seen 5 waves down, we would expect to see an A,B,C correction, right? If so - can the correction go above the end of wave 4? I see you are long at the moment, but where would you be thinking of reversing to a possible short?

FYI, that are interested in US stocks. We appear to be testing the lower uptrend line of a bear flag off of the 1200 July low. This may be the breakdown point of a wave 3 of (3) that would take prices much lower still. With September/October here in a few days a breakdown through this support should be noteworthy. Any rally off of this low that respects the channel should be a sell this week. IMO.

my long has yet to be triggered (1.85) but if it is, then i am looking for 1.88 at minimum. i wouldn't necessarily say that it would be time to go short there though. there are a number of cullish counts...the advance should clue is in

__________________
Jamie Saettele is the author of Daily Technicals, Currency Crosses, and COT on DailyFX.com. He is also the author of the recently published Sentiment in the Forex Market.

You are firmly a gbpusd bull at this point?

i am bullish as long as price is above 1.84

__________________
Jamie Saettele is the author of Daily Technicals, Currency Crosses, and COT on DailyFX.com. He is also the author of the recently published Sentiment in the Forex Market.

Hey Guys,

There are five waves up on the short term USD/JPY charts. Price has retraced into fib support today and could be setting up for another move higher. I took a long at 109.33. Stops at the lows and targets at 110.61, 111.05, and a discretionary third target.

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There are five waves down on the short term charts on EUR/CHF. I'm looking for a retracement into fib resistance and am scaling into a position as price rallies. My first target is 1.6154 and the other two are TBD (I want to let the retracement unfold so I can take the 127.20% and 161.8% extensions of the retracement for the other two targets). Stops are at the highs of the five wave decline.

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