Hey Spin, Im in agreement with you 100%. If you have gold and enough cash to ride out the storm, by all means, keep your gold in a safe place cause those who do will be fine. The problem is not everyone has gold and to buy it now would be a big mistake in my opinion. You can't deny that markets have been moving together since 2000. Thats a once in a life time phenomenon (literally, it happens once in a life time...last time was 70 years ago) Thus markets will crash together. Once we hit a bottom, or perhaps close to a bottom, thats when Gold should be owned. In fact, I will probably start buying gold now every time it makes a new low. Im not talking certificates or futures either. Im talking the real stuff and put it in a safe place. I realise Gold is about to take a major downturn but if you try to get in at the bottom, there might not be any to buy...literally. Who knows what the US government is likely to do. Id rather be safe and own some at the bottom and not try to time this. (The sky is falling...the sky is falling...lol)

I agree

A couple points though. Markets have been moving together this decade, which is a sign that the tide has turned for gold, but keep in mind that gold has tripled over this time while stocks only gained about 50%. Also the low for gold was in 2001 (excluding '99) while stocks bottomed 2 years later. We've had a couple of occasions where owning gold was temporarily the wrong asset (like May 2006), but generally gold has done better during both corrections and advances.

For example, in August it went down about 7% while stocks were down about 10-12%. Since then, bottom to top, stocks went up 12-15% while gold went up close to 25%, and we can't really say whether it has topped yet can we? Since the Dow and S&P have topped, gold has been trending higher. I wasn't expecting this.

I agree that we should wait to load up because eventually what happened in August could happen again (people hitting any bid they can find).

Essentially I'm saying though gold could correct with everything else, it's a much safer holding, and owning physical gold is the way to go as you say.

Personnally I think the sweet spot might be in silver, because it has been forgotten even more than gold, and the gold/silver ratio is at historically high levels.

Yes Spin you are right. Each market should be looked at separately even if it seems like they are all moving together. However, one last comparison is the difference between August and now is now we may have a bottom in the dollar. I think gold will continue to be a hedge against the dollar so it only makes sense that as the dollar begins to rise, gold will fall. But because the dollar rise will certainly a temporary phenomena, so will be gold's fall. This is the time to set ourselves for the next few years. Don't get discouraged every time Gold falls. Be happy and soak it up. I agree with you and I hope it falls hard. The more it does, the more I buy. This is the only time I would ever buy in a bear market (not that Gold is in a bear market but a large wave C down) of coarse but Ill have to endure the pain so that I can survive the future. It wll no longer be about speculation but survival.

Keep in mind that Im not saying gold will fall because its worthless, Im saying that credit was responsible for Gold tripling in the last few years just like everything else. And as credit begins to unwind and more and more people will be strapped for cash, they will begin to sell everything they own just to survive, Gold included.

I of 3 appears to be complete for the GBP/Jpy. Looking for a pullback back to the 239 area.

btw I agree with buying yen

I will post a few charts that show why I'm ambivalent towards USD.
Here's Dollar index. I've had this view for a few weeks but I've seen a couple of pro elliotticians agree so I'm more inclined to embarass myself

Any comments welcome.

Spin

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I know this is freaky, I apologise for those that I successfully confuse with this, but this is what I see...

p.s.
You can switch the blue 1 and 2 with A and B, but considering, amongst many many other things, all the foreign holders of dollars that are trying to get out...

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Same comment regarding the blue 1 and 2.

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Heres an update on the GBP/JPY. If my count is right, wave iii of 3 is about to commence.

Here is a monthly view of the Aussie. I prefer to count the rally from .4775 (back on 01) as a-b-c. c = a at .9998. Could a couple hundred point correction happen now...of course and it has probably started...but use that as an opportunity to buy the Aussie....and my favorite buy...the AUDCAD

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Wave 2 is unfolding as an expanded flat. A push through 115.14 completes the pattern. Fibo resistance at 115.19 and 115.36. I have not put the labels here but I am sure that all can see what I am referring to.

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Awesome opportunity right now in the USDCAD...bullish against .9413. I see 5 waves up from the low near .9400 which has been followed by a 3 wave decline which is either wave a or a full a-b-c.

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Eur/Usd............
Here are Euro charts from earlier this morning ,
this market moved very fast today
and plummeted into this " Wave A" Low ...
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Usd/Yen............
Looking like an End of a Wave 4

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I think the yen crosses aren't finished falling. And it seems that if wave iv was complex, it ended with a truncated wave c. This current fall is very impulsive and may go much much further.

Note about chart : Sorry testing this charting software

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Guess I'm still used to Metatrader, anyone has any other good charting software recommendations?

Bigger picture on Eur/Yen, seems like we're in wave iv of 5.

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