Thanks Jamie
Hadi

I don't know if I buy the whole ending diagonal thing. Not for the Euro anyways. I just dont think it has the right look for an ending diagonal. I know its not a rule, but in an diagonal, wave 1 is often the longest wave, followed by wave 3 which is usually terminates near in price to wave 1, then wave five is obviously the shortest wave since 3 cant be the shortest. Basically, the swings are usually alot tighter that what we see in the Euro. Thats what makes the diagonal and ending pattern. You want to see an ending diagonal, pull up a Eur /Jpy daily chart and look at what happened weeks before the big drop at the end of Feb beginning March. Like I said, I know thats not a rule, but usually, when you see an ending diagonal, you KNOW its an end diagonal. When you have to say "it might be", chances are, its not! Thats just been my experience. The simplest count I see with the Eur/USD is the end stages of a triple zigzag. Either way, the end result is the same. Were going south!

Now what I think looks more like a diagonal is playing out in the USD/CAD on a 4 hour chart. Although wave 2 seems to be a running flat. I don't think Ive seen that before. If it is a diagonal, then wave three is 190 pips which means wave 5 cant go beyond 1.0421. Can You guys let me know what you think on that one.

Pls see attached for interest. An alternative to the ending diagonal, allowing for more to come. The 123.6% Fib projection of 2002-2004 is 2.0422.

Well, its an interesting count but it doesnt really fly because all your impulse waves are made up of 3 waves. I think a triple zigzag is a more likely scenario.

Btw, for all those intersted in trading Eur CHF, beleieve the next leg down (wave 3 on a daily...its a biggie!) is may be about to begin. Just to put it into persective, pull up a 10 min chart and count 1,2, i, ii fom top.

i though about the idea of compelx correction which is large (B),but i think this wave(a) is impulsive in it's nature and it should be wave a of large (B).may i know your opinion about this case.
Thanks
Hadi

my chart is...

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Then a beginning diagonal. An impulsive wave one in diagonal format, with internal extensions of either five or three segments.

This is looks probable for Eur/USD(chart below), your thought will be appricated,well ur chart with 5 waves down & 5 waves Up & later u r looking for down 3 waves(b) & 5 waves( c) up in form of correction looks out of question..........chart is here for better Veiw of my thought on Euro/USd

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Yeah, Eur Chf is definitely on my watch list. When you get charts as beautiful as that, its best you don't fall asleep at the wheel. Although the move down on a 15 min chart was only 3 waves followed by a 3 waves up so I'm going to lay low and wait for it do complete what its trying to do. The correction may not be over but I think it wont be long before wave 3 down begins if it hasn't already. A break below 1.6520 is confirmation I need.
Now for something URGENT!
This week, I believe however, the story to watch is the JPY pairs. Particularly the GPB/JPY. (Although one falls, they will all fall). Why the GBP/JPY you ask? Y because it has the nicest wave structures count and as Ellioticians, isnt that what we all want? Now for all of you curious as to how a BEAUTIFUL UNMISTAKEBALE ending diagonal is suppose to look, well we finally got it. (I guess its the law of attraction...ask and ye shall recieve). Here what I see:
1. Weekly candlestick made a reversal week. (made new high but closed below last weeks close.)
2. Daily seems to be in a wave 5 ending diagonal and it may also be in its last leg too. If you want to expand the diagonal, look to 4 hour chart. Its a BUEATY! (This is what I meant when I said it must have the right look)
What does this mean? If indeed it is an ending diagonal, you are about to see it plummet to the start of wave 1 of the diagonal in the blink of an eye. Lets see were at 248, the ending diagonal began at termination of wave 4 which was 237.65. Thats over a 1000 pip drop.
3. In an ending diagonal, the RSI usually shows major divergence with wave1 being the highest peak, followed by wave 3 then wave5. The RSI is showing this type of divergence on a daily, 8 hour, and 4 hour chart.
The other JPY pairs are showing similar patterns but not as nice as this one. The CAD/JPY may have already topped following an ending diagonal last week which I missed the boat on ( well not really...it may be about to start wave3 of 1 down on a daily...it looks good as well...this diagonal started at 107.86 and its presently at 116.38...ONLY 800 pips to go)

Could this be the end of the Carry Trade? I think this may be the week.

P.S (btw, if anyone wants to explain to me how I could post charts on this thing, Id be more than glad to post the chart and show you what I mean...sorry but my toaster is as high tech as I go)

P.P.S I don't know if any of you noticed but most markets are pretty much in sync now due to this credit bubble were in... and the carry trade is just the tip of the ice berg. When it gives way, most other markets WILL as well including stock, bonds gold, silver, oil, you name it. Nothing is safe. As Elliticians we also know the media will need something to blame once it happens...I believe it will be CDOs. Due to the what is transpiring with the GBP/JPY, everyone BEWARE!

P.P.P.S Since wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave in price and it is currently 480 pips long, then wave 5 cannot move past 249.83 or the diagonal would be negated. So if at any point anyone decides to short the GBP JPY, make sure your stop is above that point.

Cable which is in daigonal triangle on week chart looks probably unfolding in expanding triangle on its last wave ie wave of daigonal triangle,where fifth wave is larger than wave 1 & 3 in expanding triangle.........so to me there is nice upward move of more than 100 % of 2.0054 to 2.0361, 307 pips(Target 2.0260 + 307 = 2.0567) ,1.382 % is 424 pips ( target 2.0260 + 424 = 2.0684)
...............Sure i love to see better than this 4 hour chart

Shivaji

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The beauty of Elliot Wave is the openness to interpretation. I like your wave count and have to admit, I hadn't seen it that way before. I still believe its a triple zigzag because I don't think your wave5, for me anyways, has the feel of an ending diagonal. Its an intuitive thing I guess. I may be wrong which is why Ill keep your count as one of many alternative counts that may be transpiring with this pair. Either way, we are definitely in agreement as to which way this pair is going. For that reason, I don't think the wave count is as important as your entry point once the turn happens.

i think wave a(in your chart) is a correction and 3 waves and wave b is impulse and subdivide to 5 waves,so these are not match with nature of elliott theory,i think after fast and sharp downward in euro(impulsive wave) to 1.2450 we have a double bottom or a-b-c (1.2450-1.3970-1.2450or more) then market go up to break 1.4000 to test higher around 1.4500 to reach the end of large (B) wave.
regards
hadi

Hey guys,
still waiting for wave3 to begin in Eurchf waves are still not defined but if you connect the trend line from wave2 to wave4, from wave5, you'll see a compelling reason to short the pair.We are below the trend line and Friday at the the close, it touch the line and reversed lower and never turned back. Ive been short for a week now and am pretty flat now but I'm starting to like how it looks.

As for GBP/JPY, Ive already shorted the pair with a stop at 250 and limit at start of wave 1 of diagonal being 237.65. May put stop tighter as waves develop further.

As for the CADJPY, I'm looking to sell below the low of the day as it seems to be playing out a wave 3 of one down.

UR wave 5 (Mine wave b) is not 5 wave but 3 wave (5 +3 + 5 waves),therefore Ur wave 4( Mine wave a)
& later 5 wave for wave c for irregular correction hope its help..............pls anyone give thier count & make us more clear

Shivaji

thanks honasona,ok it is better others juge.
Happy trading