arthur, yes, i see that as well, but i was curious about the sub-wave of the present Awave from 130 to present. can u see this?..or is it just too soon to be able to see.........?
a positive retest of the 200 EMA would define iv
at least for me
Last edited by arthurb; 01-07-2009 at 08:54 PM.
Reason: update chart
The stock market has very likely put in a significant top yesterday that shouldn't be exceeded before a new low (740 S&P) is reached. So risk aversion may be coming to the forefront again. This could mean that gold, equities and the euro could all fall together, again. This of course has not been confirmed yet, but the possibility is there and I'm watching them all closely. American-T
AT, I am on the same page with you - on the eminent fall in equities, and how that seems to be correlated close with falling gold, oil, and Euro. S&P may have peaked in wave 4 today, I counted 5 small waves down, so it may be on the wave 5 trend lower.
Your chart showing an A-B-C move higher today in Euro appears to be just a three. What may have been a wave 4 higher broke below 1.3592 to put a halt to a 5 wave move higher. (wave 2 dropped lower than wave 1). That keeps the Bear still in the game, and the downside open to a new test.
I am watching to see if wave.a(or1) gets taken out at 1.3537 to strengthen the bear case. Prices above 1.3738 wave.c high would put the bull back in the game - this week. Next week I will be looking for 1.33 support to be broken, and 1.31 tested. Conversely, a break of 1.43 would change plans.
The stock market has very likely put in a significant top yesterday that shouldn't be exceeded before a new low (740 S&P) is reached. So risk aversion may be coming to the forefront again. This could mean that gold, equities and the euro could all fall together, again. This of course has not been confirmed yet, but the possibility is there and I'm watching them all closely.
American-T
Hi AT,
I may be wrong but I'll volunteer my take on the stock market. I believe we still have some unfinished business at higher levels before another major decline. We haven't even reached the .382 of the popular labeled wave 3 down. Nor have we hit the 4th wave of lesser degree. Both of these points lie at around 1000 give or take 10 points.
Also, we have some very key dates coming up in the next several weeks. I believe that we will go lower but not before a bigger rally possibly beginning between Friday and Tuesday. This may last into the inauguration.
As you can see from my chart we have a nice - & S bottom still working which until violated should be given the benefit of the doubt.
My strategy is to wait out the possible rally and then hit it hard from the short side. OTOH, if you are correct and we are declining NOW, I will forgo a few points and jump on the slide once we break the -&S low. If that happens there should still be plenty of downside left to take advantage of.
I may be wrong but I'll volunteer my take on the stock market. I believe we still have some unfinished business at higher levels before another major decline. We haven't even reached the .382 of the popular labeled wave 3 down. Nor have we hit the 4th wave of lesser degree. Both of these points lie at around 1000 give or take 10 points.
Also, we have some very key dates coming up in the next several weeks. I believe that we will go lower but not before a bigger rally possibly beginning between Friday and Tuesday. This may last into the inauguration.
As you can see from my chart we have a nice - & S bottom still working which until violated should be given the benefit of the doubt.
My strategy is to wait out the possible rally and then hit it hard from the short side. OTOH, if you are correct and we are declining NOW, I will forgo a few points and jump on the slide once we break the -&S low. If that happens there should still be plenty of downside left to take advantage of.
I agree. The key to the stock market is volume and any move that isn't confirmed by the volume is a move that's suspect. The market was down today, but on low volume. Therefore, it's unlikely that we'll see any significant decline.
a positive retest of the 200 EMA would define iv
at least for me
oh, ok, great. i thought we might have finished 5 already but i see how u got wave 4. maybe my charting software makes it harder to see. i have no idea.
what kind of charts are u using? (compay)?
it will be interesting to see if it comletes wave 5 before the projected tumble down back to 130 that everyone is talking about. most on the g/j thread dont really pay too much credance to elliot so im really curious to see how this plays out.
Here is a chart of the dollar index. It seems like very clear EW patterns are present. 5 up conforming to a very neat uptrend line. A violation of the uptrend line and a clear 3 down so far.
It appears that the rally is so far in 3 waves and stopped at resistance of what would be the bottom of wave 1. So now the lines are drawn. If the market continues lower and takes out the wave 3 low we will be able to count 5 clear waves down. OTOH, if we go higher and take out the wave 1 low we can no longer have a 5 wave decline.
Here's an update to the list of EUR/USD possibilities I posted in here on 28 December. At the moment, both remaining scenarios are still possible, even though the diagonal is highly unlikely. Both are bullish at the moment.
Also attached is an updated count to the W-X-Y, which I think is the more probable scenario.
Hey Justy,
I'm with you on on this one and see wave X of a double 3 unfolding...I have adjusted my count accordingly...
I really admire your process of deduction....your like Sherlock Holmes A great disciplined way to approach trading...keep up the good work...
Looks like my Alt count has been violated. I am now looking for a completion of a B wave around 1.4855, for a possible long entry. Although, I would not rule out a return into the expanding triangle as well.
The daily charts show a potential return to the bearish trend in the making.
Zooming in I see a clear 5 waves down from the recent top. A corrective bounce may be expected now but we ought to see at least another 5 down but I think the probability is that the next 5 down will be wave 3 of 1 of the next major bear move.
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Originally Posted by coffee 
A great disciplined way to approach trading...keep up the good work...
