with the eurusd in the center of a correction....not only that, but a correction within a correction, there are so many possibilities. the circled area on this chart could be fully retraced, or be the first leg of a flat or triangle or continue straight up (least likely in my opinion). with 3 of the 4 scenarios indicating more bearish potential than bullish, i would lean to the short side.
wave structure in the eurusd, especially on shorter time frames, will not be clear for some time since we are in wave b of B. just let it play out and we'll try and catch wave c of B up.
Jamie Saettele is the author of Daily Technicals, Currency Crosses, and COT on DailyFX.com. He is also the author of the recently published Sentiment in the Forex Market.
additional short term bearish evidence for the gbpusd....-&s
Jamie Saettele is the author of Daily Technicals, Currency Crosses, and COT on DailyFX.com. He is also the author of the recently published Sentiment in the Forex Market.
The EUR/USD daily chart shows a possible 5 wave decline unfolding. A break of the proposed wave 3 low of 1.3312 will complete 5 waves down from the high of 1.4718. Doing so would imply further losses in the coming weeks after a rally corrects this 5 wave drop.
American-T
Last edited by American Trader; 01-09-2009 at 12:41 PM.
Reason: posted wrong chart originally
A break of 1.3312 will make 5 waves down. Would that change your analysis and proposed counts in any way?
American-T
a 5 down could make wave a of b. keep in mind though that the drop from 1.4720 could also turn into a double zigzag, which i think is more likely since the eurusd is in a B wave. i call this an educated elliott 'guess' though.
Jamie Saettele is the author of Daily Technicals, Currency Crosses, and COT on DailyFX.com. He is also the author of the recently published Sentiment in the Forex Market.
a 5 down could make wave a of b. keep in mind though that the drop from 1.4720 could also turn into a double zigzag, which i think is more likely since the eurusd is in a B wave. i call this an educated elliott 'guess' though.
Hm, interesting......if it is a wave B like you say, then it would explain the lack of clarity in wave structure on the short time frames. I'm looking for a resumption in the pair's downtrend to a new low beneath 1.2328 right now due to the extreme bearish potential in gold and equities. But I know EWP dictates we look at each market individually.
Your angle is to wait for the proposed B wave to end and then catch the sharp wave C rally, I suppose.
Here is an Update for this morning's earlier Pound chart .........
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Only a Probability ! ..................................... Not Cast in Stone !
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Last edited by marketwavez2; 01-09-2009 at 01:17 PM.
Looking good. Do you have a larger time frame showing your entire 5 wave count? Did you see the proposed 5 wave drop I had in the EUR/USD. I assume your USD/CHF 5 wave rally is the same, just inversed, right?
Hm, interesting......if it is a wave B like you say, then it would explain the lack of clarity in wave structure on the short time frames. I'm looking for a resumption in the pair's downtrend to a new low beneath 1.2328 right now due to the extreme bearish potential in gold and equities. But I know EWP dictates we look at each market individually.
Your angle is to wait for the proposed B wave to end and then catch the sharp wave C rally, I suppose.
Okay, just thinking out loud...
Thanks for the comment.
American-T
Which would increase the odds of a Large B wave triangle unfolding, before the final Major C to new lows.
There's been talk of gold among other things lately. Here is a 6 month daily of gold. The move from the latest peak does not look impulsive so far.
It appears like a triangle may be forming. I'm not sure how to label this up move from the October low to the December top. Or, how the potential triangle fits. Maybe someone can volunteer some help with a good EW count.
There's been talk of gold among other things lately. Here is a 6 month daily of gold. The move from the latest peak does not look impulsive so far.
It appears like a triangle may be forming. I'm not sure how to label this up move from the October low to the December top. Or, how the potential triangle fits. Maybe someone can volunteer some help with a good EW count.
Hey Diver,
I feel the entire decline from the high of $1040 is a large correction. Because of that, impulsive declines will be tough to see because this move is essentially countertrend.
For me, what needs to maintained is the series of lower highs in order to keep the downtrend in tact. That latest high that can't be broken is $937. I'm bearish as long as it's below there. A break of that level puts me neutral.
Which would increase the odds of a Large B wave triangle unfolding, before the final Major C to new lows.
I'm not really on board yet with a wave B triangle. I'm looking for a 5 wave drop on the daily to tell me further losses, perhaps to a new major low, will occur. I need the market to prove to me a wave B triangle is underway first. Right now, I don't see........yet.
For the short term, gold did another sharp reversal recently as shown on the hourly chart attached. Over the past few weeks when this has happened, it's led to big gold losses in the following days.
Also note that the EUR/USD has lost over 200 pips today and gold actually rallied this morning! This happened earlier in the week and a major gold selloff occurred the next day. If the EUR/USD stays under pressure, expect gold to fall hard today or Monday.
American-T
Last edited by American Trader; 01-09-2009 at 01:40 PM.
Reason: added euro comment
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Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele
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! .... Awesome !
