so stupid - i missed a number when i was moving my stop to breakeven and got hit immediately - it took only a part of the whole party, but that was insane - 200 pips in 15 minutes!
however, looking forward, now it is a zigzag to the 38% fibo of the advance from 1,27, and could be wave 2..
Though i still monitor the same 4 pairs, this time i'll post only USD.CHF.
After breaking 1,1530 to the upside, there is a confirmation now that the whole decline from 1,17 to 1,1310 was very likely a three wave move. As alternate count i still track the chance that that was a 5 wave affair, but that has low possibility at the moment.
However, it's not a time to be a dollar bull for a longer term. Short term, yes, one can chase some more hundert pips and i also still short the cable, hoping to get as low as ~1,3350, but that is the last 5-th wave on the bigger time frame, so the correction to the dollar strength is coming.
And, of course, i might be wrong, this is only my personal count and yesterday there have been quite a few people here who thought the opposite way. They still can be right...
Thanks for the links. I'll check them out when I have some time.
I've watched the "Wall Street Warriors" TV show before. My favorite segment was the one with the two stock-brokers from New York. They were trying to sell their clients on the stock SanDisk. Throughout the show they were talking about how the fundamentals were so strong and how everybody should be buying the stock and blah blah blah. Well that season of the show ended right when the market topped back in 2007. And of course SanDisk topped with the rest of the market and of course the brokers had ended up selling their clients a loser. The part I liked though was at the end of the show, these two brokers went in to have a talk with their boss about their performance. The entire group of people in the room were talking about how the brokers had done everything 'right' but that this one just didn't work out.
It amazes me that all of these 'professionals' aren't paying attention to the forces that really move the market. Their entire focus was on the fundamental factors of a specific company and they were completely oblivious to the idea of crowd psychology being the factor that really drives the markets.
This is kind of off-topic, but kind of funny as well. I was recently reading an article on Yahoo Finance about ETF's. The author had been talking about how in addition to the average investor, the fund managers had been caught by surprise by the market sell-off as well. He was talking about the percentage of cash being held versus amount of money tied up in the investments of these large firms. He said that at the end the fund managers were only holding about 3% cash, which of course means that they were invested as much as they could be. Here is the quote that I got a kick out of:
"Fund managers were invested to the max right before the market topped and crashed."
Well Duh. To me that's kind of a "here's your sign" type of moment. That's the reason the market sold off. Traders and investors were over-extended and there were no buyers left to keep pushing prices higher.
Perhaps you are correct...and perhaps I am correct...I guess we will see what happens. Anyway, I count an ending diagonal in the EURUSD as wave 5-so I stick by my count. Also, I am not really sure what you mean about 'getting back into the business'.
The drop below 1.3116 confirms that there were indeed 5 up...this decline is the bulk of wave c of 2. Expect a bottom tonight / tomorrow below 1.31 (lots of support in the 1.3050-70 area).
Jamie Saettele is the author of Daily Technicals, Currency Crosses, and COT on DailyFX.com. He is also the author of the recently published Sentiment in the Forex Market.
although the usdchf rallied, i think it could have been the first part of a diagonal for a (a) of B wave in a triangle; i am not too sure how exactly to count this complex correction, and wether it has finnished, but lets see....
Though i still monitor the same 4 pairs, this time i'll post only USD.CHF.
After breaking 1,1530 to the upside, there is a confirmation now that the whole decline from 1,17 to 1,1310 was very likely a three wave move. As alternate count i still track the chance that that was a 5 wave affair, but that has low possibility at the moment.
However, it's not a time to be a dollar bull for a longer term. Short term, yes, one can chase some more hundert pips and i also still short the cable, hoping to get as low as ~1,3350, but that is the last 5-th wave on the bigger time frame, so the correction to the dollar strength is coming.
And, of course, i might be wrong, this is only my personal count and yesterday there have been quite a few people here who thought the opposite way. They still can be right...
Chances are
Ravno;
I'll step up. My count is bearish. Where you have c, I am calling a 1 down. Granted the last 5 is suspect. Thus your 1 is a and 2 is b. I am looking at the pattern as a flat for wave 2 that will end slightly above 78.6% retracement.
Therefore our count on the current move is the same. Now in wave 5, target 1.1648.
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Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele
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