While I wholeheartedly agree that the "trend is your friend", there are a lot of valid counter-trend setups that deserve some attention. Being able to recognize price patterns, and having the discipline to wait for them to confirm themselves, can provide a multitude of trading opportunities.

Using these patterns in conjuction with some Elliott principles, will go a long way to making you a well rounded trader, and will allow you to enter into the market during those times when definable trends are interrupted by potentially extensive corrections.

Eur/Usd


Probable Wave-Count .............

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Im with Pipin on this one. Im not following the Euro as close as I am the Euro/Jpy but we have the same count for both pairs. Reason I ike the EUR/JPY better is I feel the Yen is stronger than the dollar and the Euro is the weakest pair right now. Also the correlation with the stock market is incredible. I also agree with Brad. Trying to catch a bottom in the type of market is suicide. All we can do as Ellioticians is try to keep up with the count and wiat for selling oppertunites. If your a short term daytrader, buying rallys is fine as long as you dont forget to take profits ASAP. That being said, heres my count for the Eur/Jpy. I, like Pipin's count for Euro, am looking for a V of 3. We still have a few weeks left for markets to bottom in my opinion.

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Whilst I agree with both principles of the discussion, I just see so much resistance in the 1.75+ area that it doesn't warrant a trade to the long side.
I wouldn't even think about entering long until at least 1.7655 was broken and even then you've still got an incredible uphill battle to break 1.7840.

In my opinion I will be looking to sell any rallies above 1.75.

Take a look at the daily I've attached to see how much resistance is in play...

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Just wondering if anyone else is short eur/chf.
Iv'e attached a count that I'm looking at. I'm kinda new to this but I figure we are coming out of a corrective 2nd wave and into the third down?
Just have to wait and see how it pans out....I guess

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the last wave 1 (with question mark) looks Ok, but the previous correction a-b-c (Flat?) is rather strange, namely the wave b is way too big...

So, although i myself don't follow this pair at the moment, i would offer you to change the count to the mentioned a-b-c, otherwise surprises could come.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/op...nt&oref=slogin

October 17, 2008
Op-Ed Contributor
Buy American. I Am.

By WARREN E. BUFFETT
Omaha

THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.

So ... I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.

Why?

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.
Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.

A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.
You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.

Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.

Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”

I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities.

Warren E. Buffett is the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, a diversified holding company.

Thanks for the comments Ravno...

I revised my count...and have attached it...
From what I can tell we might be in the beginnings of a wave c advance...

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Yes, looks good.

Just for training purposes, i've just created the alternate count, because we always need one in order not to get surpised...
I personally don't like this alternate, by the way.
To me it looks more like 1-2-3 instead of the first (a)-(b)-(c) then wave (4) instead of x and then, finally, a kind of ending diagonal.
But. The both counts are correct from the point of view of the Elliott Waves rules.

So, good luck !

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hm, strange. it tells me that the picture is saved, however i don't see any picture.

does anybody ?

I don't either. Others had this problem with posting charts before. Not sure who it was recently back in the old thread, but Jamie had admin fix the problem. Maybe it is the same thing.

Aha, then,
admin, please !!!
fix the problem

Hello guys
i am just taking closer look at nasdaq here again.
At the present time all indices are going through wave 3 down on several orders of magnitude, including intermediate, cycle, supercycle. But I will not get into cycles or supercycles, as they are not relevant to traders like me.
In any case, we should see one more correction wave to the area of 1950, before we'll see a major drop again.
If any of you trade indices, it will be a good time to short them.
Myself, I will buy some QQQQ puts.
Mike
PS: I just checked my post and i seem to have the same problem with charts attachment. So, no chart this time. Just my verbal comments, as above

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I am trying to post the newest chart for the Carry trade.
It looks rather ominous to me.
see my EW count in the chart.
(It looks like I cannot post any charts these days, sorry)
Mike

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welcome back mike

no charts viewable..
why dont you put them on ImageShack® - Image Hosting and drop link?