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09-03-2008, 08:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alpine4133
Mike, what am I missing. Which pair will drop to 65? I do not see what pair the chart is for?
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It was just a comment on the price of crude oil, which I expect to drop to USD 65 per barrel, before it moves back up again to a value in excess of 200 USD.
At USD 65 we will be in the area of former wave 4 of lesser degree.
Mike |
09-03-2008, 09:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Mike
It was just a comment on the price of crude oil, which I expect to drop to USD 65 per barrel, before it moves back up again to a value in excess of 200 USD.
At USD 65 we will be in the area of former wave 4 of lesser degree.
Mike
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To bad the price at the pump won't follow suit and go back down to where it was at the last time price was at $65 per barrel. Just look at the prices now. It has dropped by 1/4 to 1/3 per barrel but a lousy 10 cents at the pumps here. Maybe someone should show the pump price regulators how EW is supposed to work. lol.  |
09-03-2008, 09:33 PM
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Hello guys:
I just took a look at the USD index, weekly.
Sometimes it helps to look at this index just to get another perspective. Mind you, the USD index is a basket of currencies with certain weighting assigned to each major, as follows:
Euro 57.6 %
Japan/yen 13.6 %
UK/pound 11.9 %
Canada/dollar 9.1 %
Sweden/krona 4.2 %
Switzerland/franc 3.6 %
In other words, Euro is the largest, almost 60%, so the index is close to the EURUSD, in reverse.
What will happen next? I believe that my second post, below, will give some answers.
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09-03-2008, 09:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gizmo
To bad the price at the pump won't follow suit and go back down to where it was at the last time price was at $65 per barrel. Just look at the prices now. It has dropped by 1/4 to 1/3 per barrel but a lousy 10 cents at the pumps here. Maybe someone should show the pump price regulators how EW is supposed to work. lol. |
I filled up today for $3.21/gal USD today. Considering the $3.90 I was paying a few weeks ago, I'm pretty happy with that. An unfortunate effect of knowing EW is that we know those prices wont last much longer.  |
09-03-2008, 09:43 PM
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Further to my post just few minutes ago, here is the daily USD index.
I hate to spoil the fun, but it looks like the Index has still some business to do by going up some more (around 200 pips, or so) before it moves down. It looks like we just completed waves i, ii, iii, iv of C. I wouldn't be surprised, if we move little higher yet in order to complete wave v of C.
I am fully aware that this comment goes against most of the opinions on this Forum, but who i am to argue with Elliott?
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09-03-2008, 09:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justy10125
I filled up today for $3.21/gal USD today. Considering the $3.90 I was paying a few weeks ago, I'm pretty happy with that. An unfortunate effect of knowing EW is that we know those prices wont last much longer. |
You are lucky.
I live in Edmonton, AB, where we produce 3 million barrels a day of the black goo, most of which goes to the US. And we are paying 1.30 a litre. Multiply it by 3.5 l/gallon and you will quickly find out that shoemaker walks barefoot.
Mike |
09-03-2008, 10:02 PM
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When I look at the EURUSD I have a feeling that we will see another low soon, maybe this week or early next. My educated guess is around 1.43.
Then the fun will start in earnest.
Mike
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09-03-2008, 10:10 PM
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The Bull and the Bear
Here's a bullish and a bearish count to look at for short term Gold prices. Technically speaking, the bullish count is invalid because the first five wave advance is overlapping, so I am leaning toward the bearish count at the moment. But in case price continues higher this is something I'll be watching. The next rally will tell the tale. If it unfolds as a correction I'll be looking for a short. A five wave rally will obviously point to higher prices.
At the moment currencies are being driven by commodities and the EUR/USD continues to track Gold very well, so I'll be looking there for a trade.
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09-03-2008, 10:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justy10125
Here's a bullish and a bearish count to look at for short term Gold prices. Technically speaking, the bullish count is invalid because the first five wave advance is overlapping, so I am leaning toward the bearish count at the moment. But in case price continues higher this is something I'll be watching. The next rally will tell the tale. If it unfolds as a correction I'll be looking for a short. A five wave rally will obviously point to higher prices.
At the moment currencies are being driven by commodities and the EUR/USD continues to track Gold very well, so I'll be looking there for a trade.
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Your second chart (bearish scenario) looks better in the sense that it closer depicts the proper Elliott count.
In the first chart I think that your B wave (consisting of 5 sub-waves) looks somewhat suspicious. |
09-03-2008, 11:18 PM
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Could we be ready to close the gap in the EUR/GBP? I have not done a wave count on this chart and need to see how it fits in with the daily chart count I have. It looks like we have butted up against the top of the channel with a possible hammer forming on this 4 hour candle. Also some divergence on the stochs. Just thought I would toss it out.
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09-03-2008, 11:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Mike
You are lucky.
I live in Edmonton, AB, where we produce 3 million barrels a day of the black goo, most of which goes to the US. And we are paying 1.30 a litre. Multiply it by 3.5 l/gallon and you will quickly find out that shoemaker walks barefoot.
Mike
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Gee you make me feel like I got a real bargain at 1.256 today. It only cost me $88.00 to fill my tank. 
God how pathetic of a bargain is that. |
09-03-2008, 11:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by italm31
Sorry guys,
Doesnt look like Il be posting any more charts on this forum. Everytime I try, it tells my alluded space allowed has been surpassed. Ive had this message before but this time, it doesnt give me the option of deleting my past charts. Ive written to the moderator about the issue but have gotten no response. Its too bad, I wanted to post some charts early this morning before the Cad move down and why I though it was a top. Lo and behold, the thing tanked before I could post a chart. Oh well. Maybe one day (soon I hope), Ill be back posting charts again when ever the moderator decides to do something about my problem. Until then, I guess Ill be looking out for YOUR charts! In the meantime, if anyone wants my 2 cents about what I think about a certain pair, PM me and Ill send you a chart privately. (Just let me know you sent me a PM cause I never check those things). Its the best I can do till the issue gets resolved (or if)
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NO WAY! WE WANT YOUR CHARTS!
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09-04-2008, 12:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Mike
Further to my post just few minutes ago, here is the daily USD index.
I hate to spoil the fun, but it looks like the Index has still some business to do by going up some more (around 200 pips, or so) before it moves down. It looks like we just completed waves i, ii, iii, iv of C. I wouldn't be surprised, if we move little higher yet in order to complete wave v of C.
I am fully aware that this comment goes against most of the opinions on this Forum, but who i am to argue with Elliott?
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Hey Mike;
I agree with your count here. I would add that it is consistent with my count on the EUR$. EUR$ looks to me to have one more push down. However, I do count 5 down in the USDCHF 15min chart.
Good Luck. |
09-04-2008, 12:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Mike
When I look at the EURUSD I have a feeling that we will see another low soon, maybe this week or early next. My educated guess is around 1.43.
Then the fun will start in earnest.
Mike
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Sorry;
Didn't see your chart. Can't go below 1.4310
Good Luck.
Last edited by aerocom; 09-04-2008 at 12:09 AM..
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09-04-2008, 12:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aerocom
Sorry;
Didn't see your chart. Can't go below 1.4310
Good Luck.
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It cannot go below 1.367, as it will invade the territory of wave 1.
But, we don't expect it to go even near that number. |
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