Elliott Wave Trading Discussion - Page 1115

JKnPA · #**16711** (**permalink**) 08-27-2009, 09:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by qsx

i like the chart as well.
right now your supposed wave (v) seems to be a diagonal, which will produce a double bottom, or fail slightly before that..
alternatively its wave B of a flat.
Double bottom........ how do you come to that conclusion ?

not very typical for me, but i added half a unit here. cant see that falling through really out of this pattern.

.................................................. ................................
Why cable and sterling ?

Nice chart, by the way...
.................................................. ...................
Because once upon a time the two places were connected by a huge undersea cable.. like a telephone line.
Thanks Guys

David

Sean Hyman · #**16712** (**permalink**) 08-27-2009, 09:50 AM

I believe Elliott Wavers would call the pole a wave 3 and the actual flag a wave 4, getting ready for the lauch to wave 5 which is minimally the measurement of the length of the pole from the point at which is breaks out.

That would put it up to 1.08 to 1.0850ish easily.

See what you guys think.

qsx · #**16713** (**permalink**) 08-27-2009, 10:01 AM

do or die time for sterling bulls..

if true, this shall be retraced in the glimpse of an eye.

update: there we go.. but that was 2 pips to my stops

justy10125 · #**16714** (**permalink**) 08-27-2009, 10:16 AM

The CHF/JPY is showing the same triangle as the EUR/JPY, but is offering a better trade setup to the short side in wave (c) of (E). There is also a head and shoulders pattern that is about to be broken to the downside (blue lines on chart). I'm short now looking for a test of 86.00.

VINCY BALBOA · #**16715** (**permalink**) 08-27-2009, 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VINCY BALBOA

Chart...

Most Important It Aussie is Strong Currency pair.

Attachment 36100

thanks

With a big SMILE

thanks

apipintime · #**16716** (**permalink**) 08-27-2009, 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justy10125

This EUR/JPY triangle still seems to be unfolding. Within wave (E) of the triangle, waves (a) and (b) are now complete with the wave (c) decline unfolding now. Price should drop below the 19 August low of 132.18 to complete wave (E) over the next week or two.

The widest part of the triangle is 1,666 points wide, so at the conclusion of wave (E), I'll be looking for a rally of about the same length. That means a target area up around 147.50.

Hey Justy,

Would you attribute this prospective rally to the Yen weakening against the dollar to a greater degree than the Euro/Pound/Swissy(considering the dollar is in a position to strengthen against all currencies)? And, does the Yen weakening bolster the case for a continuation of the rally in equities? The reason I ask is, it would then seem that the correlation between strong dollar/weak equities would become disconnected.

JKnPA · #**16717** (**permalink**) 08-27-2009, 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by qsx

do or die time for sterling bulls..

if true, this shall be retraced in the glimpse of an eye.

update: there we go.. but that was 2 pips to my stops

JK

justy10125 · #**16718** (**permalink**) 08-27-2009, 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by apipintime

Hey Justy,

Would you attribute this prospective rally to the Yen weakening against the dollar to a greater degree than the Euro/Pound/Swissy(considering the dollar is in a position to strengthen against all currencies)? And, does the Yen weakening bolster the case for a continuation of the rally in equities? The reason I ask is, it would then seem that the correlation between strong dollar/weak equities would become disconnected.

I don't pay attention to any correlation between USD and equities, so I'm not sure what these developing trends mean in the big picture. I can say though, that nothing is ever correlated to an exact +1 (or -1 for inverse correlations), so even though there may typically be a strong inverse correlation between the USD and equities, that relationship won't always hold. Sometimes the two markets will track together and someties they won't. This might be one of those times where they don't.

My view on equities is bearish. I think that stocks are in the latter stages of the corrective rally that began back in March and should be topping out fairly soon.

apipintime · #**16719** (**permalink**) 08-27-2009, 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justy10125

I don't pay attention to any correlation between USD and equities, so I'm not sure what these developing trends mean in the big picture. I can say though, that nothing is ever correlated to an exact +1 (or -1 for inverse correlations), so even though there may typically be a strong inverse correlation between the USD and equities, that relationship won't always hold. Sometimes the two markets will track together and someties they won't. This might be one of those times where they don't.

My view on equities is bearish. I think that stocks are in the latter stages of the corrective rally that began back in March and should be topping out fairly soon.

Thanks Justy.

Sean Hyman · #**16720** (**permalink**) 08-27-2009, 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by apipintime

Thanks Justy.

apipintime, I do watch how the currencies respond when stocks rise/fall. The dollar does benefit when stocks fall generally and it falls when stocks and commodities rise.

However, generally the yen prospers even more. So selling the carry trades (especially the yen crosses) as stocks tank and the yen strengthens may be your best bet.

See what you think.

aerocom · #**16721** (**permalink**) 08-27-2009, 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

I believe Elliott Wavers would call the pole a wave 3 and the actual flag a wave 4, getting ready for the lauch to wave 5 which is minimally the measurement of the length of the pole from the point at which is breaks out.

That would put it up to 1.08 to 1.0850ish easily.

See what you guys think.

Sean;

I agree with your count. But, I think the entire pattern from the low is a flat.

Anyway, Long from 1.0596.

Good Luck.

Sean Hyman · #**16722** (**permalink**) 08-27-2009, 11:40 AM

Trading Economic News

It will likely move the U.S. dollar and Aussie dollar when it does breakout. So worth noting and watching.

The triangle's low volatility is just about to birth high volatility soon.

qsx · #**16723** (**permalink**) 08-27-2009, 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justy10125

correlations

>>

Quote:

Originally Posted by W. D. Gann Ticker Interview

Through the law of vibration every stock in the market moves in its own distinctive sphere of activities, as to intensity, volume and direction; all the essential qualities of its evolution are characterized in its own rate of vibration. Stocks, like atoms, are really centres of energy; therefore, they are controlled mathematically. Stocks create their own field of action and power: power to attract and repel, which principle explains why certain stocks at times lead the market and 'turn dead' at other times. Thus, to speculate scientifically it is absolutely necessary to follow natural law.

Quote:

Originally Posted by W. D. Gann Ticker Interview

"Those in close touch with the market have noticed the phenomena of ebb and flow, or rise and fall, in the value of stocks. At certain times a stock will become intensely active, large transactions being made in it; at other times this same stock will become practically stationary or inactive with a very small volume of sales. I have found that the law of vibration governs and controls these conditions. I have also found that certain phases of this law govern the rise in a stock and an entirely different rule operates on the decline."

here is the scientific explanation

apipintime · #**16724** (**permalink**) 08-27-2009, 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

apipintime, I do watch how the currencies respond when stocks rise/fall. The dollar does benefit when stocks fall generally and it falls when stocks and commodities rise.

However, generally the yen prospers even more. So selling the carry trades (especially the yen crosses) as stocks tank and the yen strengthens may be your best bet.

See what you think.

Hey Sean,

I have been observing the correlation btwn equities/oil and the dollar for some time now, which was the basis for my question regarding Justy's EUR/JPY count( a page or so back ). Based on that particular count and the current relationship between equities and the dollar, one would expect more weakness in the dollar unless the Yen was to weaken significantly more than the other majors.

apipintime · #**16725** (**permalink**) 08-27-2009, 11:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aerocom

Sean;

I agree with your count. But, I think the entire pattern from the low is a flat.

Anyway, Long from 1.0596.

Good Luck.

Hey Aerocom,

Would you be able to post a chart whenever you can? Thanks.