Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

Last week GBPUSD formed a bearish engulfing candle just under a longer term down trend line and the elliott wave count playing to the down side still looks incomplete.. Next week should be a down week.. I think we're still working on completing a large, longer term wave "C" as shown in the chart.. In the coming week I expect we'll see a little bit of retracement into last weeks price action, I will look to take on short positions above 1.4500 targeting 1.3800 or lower... Stop will be above last weeks high at 1.4985 ---

Here's what may be occouring on the 8 hour chart of GBPJPY

Originally Posted by brad_1199

Last week GBPUSD formed a bearish engulfing candle just under a longer term down trend line and the elliott wave count playing to the down side still looks incomplete.. Next week should be a down week.. I think we're still working on completing a large, longer term wave "C" as shown in the chart.. In the coming week I expect we'll see a little bit of retracement into last weeks price action, I will look to take on short positions above 1.4500 targeting 1.3800 or lower... Stop will be above last weeks high at 1.4985 ---

Hey Brad,

I agree that next week should be a down week, and am targeting around the 1.3800 level as well. But, I do believe that either Wave C or 3 is complete at 1.3502, and we should be coming down to form a 1-2-3 bottom. Cable is long overdue for a major correction, and I believe that it will accelerate after we take one more poke down around the lows. Keep up the good candle analysis!

Originally Posted by apipintime

Hey Brad,

I agree that next week should be a down week, and am targeting around the 1.3800 level as well. But, I do believe that either Wave C or 3 is complete at 1.3502, and we should be coming down to form a 1-2-3 bottom. Cable is long overdue for a major correction, and I believe that it will accelerate after we take one more poke down around the lows. Keep up the good candle analysis!

With the wave (3) decline being extended, it's possible that a flat correction is in the works. So be aware of the possibility of a new low below 1.35 before any rally gets going.

Of course it's also possible that a triangle or any other type of correction is forming, but a flat seems likely given the extended third wave.

Originally Posted by White-Fang

Got ya :-), thanks ... so as far as I can see atm, with the current structure unfolding as a triangle in the DAX, there should be really another move down before going up again... or do you see any bullish alternates from here?

Hope Justy can give his opinion too, that'd be great!

In the longer term perspective, I'm still looking at the decline in the DOW as wave (C) of a flat correction. One more decline should complete wave (C). I don't follow the DAX, but I'd expect something similar.

Originally Posted by justy10125

In the longer term perspective, I'm still looking at the decline in the DOW as wave (C) of a flat correction. One more decline should complete wave (C). I don't follow the DAX, but I'd expect something similar.

Hey Justy, good to have your opinion, I really appreciate it :-)... I was thinking about the flat scenario as well but I looks to me like 5 waves up in the last move up which I marked with wave 5. Would you disagree? And a flat should be a 3-3-5 right? So I am really confused on this one ...would you label the longterm chart different than I did here?

Sorry for the poor quality but this is all I can find for longterm...

Could you please post your longterm DOW as well ?

Many thanks
Whity

Originally Posted by White-Fang

Hey Justy, good to have your opinion, I really appreciate it :-)... I was thinking about the flat scenario as well but I looks to me like 5 waves up in the last move up which I marked with wave 5. Would you disagree? And a flat should be a 3-3-5 right? So I am really confused on this one ...would you label the longterm chart different than I did here?

Sorry for the poor quality but this is all I can find for longterm...

Could you please post your longterm DOW as well ?

Many thanks
Whity

The way you labeled your chart looks fine.

Here are charts of the DOW and NASDAQ. I think the American stock indexes are in their final legs of larger corrective patterns that began back in 2000.

Here is a daily chart of the S&P 500.

Originally Posted by justy10125

With the wave (3) decline being extended, it's possible that a flat correction is in the works. So be aware of the possibility of a new low below 1.35 before any rally gets going.

Of course it's also possible that a triangle or any other type of correction is forming, but a flat seems likely given the extended third wave.

Looks like the Pound is going to open with a 150 pip gap to the downside. I just saw a recent quote of 1.4229 ( the high on the weekend was 1.4417). Considering the count we left off at on Friday, it looks like it has already retraced for wave 2 and is now in wave 3 of C? I really hate when the train leaves the station without you!

mind the gap.. i opened a nzdjpy.. i see three (more or less reasonable alternatives.. but they all point to below 45 (given the 5 waves down).

Originally Posted by apipintime

Looks like the Pound is going to open with a 150 pip gap to the downside. I just saw a recent quote of 1.4229

indeed.. here is the pretrading session as it looks right now.. heavy!

Originally Posted by justy10125

Here is a daily chart of the S&P 500.

Hey Justy,

I was wondering if you had any kind of time frame that might fit with your triangle scenario in the S&P 500? Thanks.

here is the shortterm outlook for the usdjpy.. unfortunately i cant stay up to catch it during the asian session, it will have time to resolve itself until tommorow morning.. i think it will result in a shooting star around that level, it will not be able to close above 92,5 due to various extensions..

diver, this is friday`s sp500 fall.. to me it is very clearly in 5 waves.
in addition i had a delta 1 high above it.. well.. i am trading accordingly..

also the euro looks atm as if it had a failure at 1,293.. run for cover if it breaks 1,27!

Originally Posted by qsx

indeed.. here is the pretrading session as it look right now.. heavy!

Looking for a short opp on attempt to fill the gap!

Originally Posted by qsx

indeed.. here is the pretrading session as it look right now.. heavy!

In situations like these, where we open with a gap, what are the odds that the gap gets filled?