Elliott Wave Trading Discussion - Page 119

brad_1199 · #**1771** (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 08:15 PM

I see no bottom yet in GBPUSD and since it flew right through the 161.8 FIB extension I was looking at (1.6384) it now looks to me like we're deffinately in a 3rd Wave down extending to the down side.. I see a clear path straight down to the next FIB Extension (261.8 @ 1.4560) On the Monthly Chart There is sickening momentum to the down side built up, I think we're in A Large Wave 5 down here on the monthly.. //

After Price hits 1.4560 I think we're going to see multi-year consoldation between the trend line that will be broken soon and the FIB level before an eventual even further break to the downside.

brad_1199 · #**1772** (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 08:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by emil.taghiyev

Hi Brad. You showed that GBPJPY is heading towards 152. When do you expect the pair to reach that level? Would you say next week? Is it ok to short it against 161?
thank you
Emil

EMIL I'm not so good with timeline projections maybe someone else can help you with that one, All I can tell you is that I think that pair is due for a major bounce so keep your eyes on it closely especially if you are trying to enter short so late in the down trend...

Watch very closely for a major bottom that may form in between 160.25 and 148.15.. That's a large prior Multi Year Congestion zone that will most likely reject price with a lot of force atleast once... That bounce will offer Bears short opportunites

justy10125 · #**1773** (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 08:32 PM

Hey Guys,

Here's a possible count for a short term trade. The AUD/JPY may have completed a flat correction and is once again headed lower. Targets on the trade are below the 62.63 lows. Stops at the highs.

brad_1199 · #**1774** (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 08:51 PM

If anyone is interested in furthering their knowledge on candlesticks Steve Nison is holding a free webinar tonight at 9pm EST...

Go to this link and type your name to login as a guest...

https://admin.connectpro.acrobat.com...launcher=false

It should be good.. Steve Nison is really good...

justy10125 · #**1775** (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 08:54 PM

Here's a count for the upside as well. Price is at a critical juncture at the moment and could go either way. Price action over the next hour or so should clue us in as to the next directional move.

italm31 · #**1776** (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 09:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justy10125

Hey Guys,

Here's a possible count for a short term trade. The AUD/JPY may have completed a flat correction and is once again headed lower. Targets on the trade are below the 62.63 lows. Stops at the highs.

Hey Justy,
Thats my count for the Eur/Jpy as well. Ive been short for 127. This ABC you have labeled looks like a iv of III of 3 down. Heres my count thus far. Interesting how Big mike is looking for 102. Very possible.

justy10125 · #**1777** (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 09:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by italm31

Hey Justy,
Thats my count for the Eur/Jpy as well. Ive been short for 127. This ABC you have labeled looks like a iv of III of 3 down. Heres my count thus far. Interesting how Big mike is looking for 102. Very possible.

Hi Italm,

Yeah, I agree with you. The major item that sticks out right now is the five wave rally that's visible on the 5 minute chart. The most logical place for that five wave move is in a (C) wave position of a flat correction, so we should see price move lower over the next day or so.

italm31 · #**1778** (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 10:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justy10125

Hi Italm,

Yeah, I agree with you. The major item that sticks out right now is the five wave rally that's visible on the 5 minute chart. The most logical place for that five wave move is in a (C) wave position of a flat correction, so we should see price move lower over the next day or so.

Yes, but you are right as well. Until we get a new low, the move is not confirmed. Could be an abc of A as well. We may be in B right now and a new high for C. Either way, doesnt matter I guess. I will short that rally as well. For now,I want to see a new low to confirm this wave iv of III.

justy10125 · #**1779** (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 10:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by italm31

Yes, but you are right as well. Until we get a new low, the move is not confirmed. Could be an abc of A as well. We may be in B right now and a new high for C. Either way, doesnt matter I guess. I will short that rally as well. For now,I want to see a new low to confirm this wave iv of III.

True. So far, the short term price action is impulsive to the downside. But like you say, it takes a new low to confirm.

Either way, the last few hours have sure been nice.

EDIT: Here's a short term chart showing the price action from this afternoon. The decline so far can be counted as an impulse. This could be the first wave of the next downward move.

italm31 · #**1780** (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 10:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justy10125

True. So far, the short term price action is impulsive to the downside. But like you say, it takes a new low to confirm.

Either way, the last few hours have sure been nice.

EDIT: Here's a short term chart showing the price action from this afternoon. The decline so far can be counted as an impulse. This could be the first wave of the next downward move.

Id count it as 3 down so far as I think your 4 may be to short in time but I agree with you...definately looks impulsive. The thing is though, if this is a v of III, will v be extended or will we get an immediate bounce back up once a new low is made?

justy10125 · #**1781** (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 10:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by italm31

Id count it as 3 down so far as I think your 4 may be to short in time but I agree with you...definately looks impulsive. The thing is though, if this is a v of III, will v be extended or will we get an immediate bounce back up once a new low is made?

There's no way to know for sure I guess. I'm planning on taking most of my position off the table at the prior lows of 62.60. I'll leave 1/4 of the position on in case we do see an extended drop.

italm31 · #**1782** (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 10:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by italm31

Id count it as 3 down so far as I think your 4 may be to short in time but I agree with you...definitely looks impulsive. The thing is though, if this is a v of III, will v be extended or will we get an immediate bounce back up once a new low is made?

Well we now got new lows. This is how Id count todays action thus far in the EJ. I agree. Im taking half my position once I get any indication we will retrace.

brad_1199 · #**1783** (**permalink**) 10-23-2008, 11:59 PM

EURGBP has put in a major top on the monthly chart and will continue downward, I think we're in a large wave 4 correction and right now playing out a "B" wave in that correction which is appearing as a large triangle. I expect we'll see further whipsaw in this pair over the next few weeks before an eventual down side break. Looks good right now for bears with Price near the highs.. I'd say this pair is even good for an intra-day trade to the short side right now targeting the .7700 area again -- 200+PIPS

But there is longer term bearish potential as well.

marketwavez2 · #**1784** (**permalink**) 10-24-2008, 01:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by marketwavez2

Usd/Yen

Hmmmmmm............Problem Child ..............

----------------------------------------------

CHART UPDATE :

Original post :
See here ///// Post # 1718 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/...ssion-115.html
-----------------------------------------------

Well , well , Well .................

-a problem child indeed /////// both targets now reached

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brad_1199 · #**1785** (**permalink**) 10-24-2008, 03:09 AM

Just look at this pair go !!! Didn't take long to sky rocket !! VERY NICE !