Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

Hi all,

I've been away for a week and am trying to catch up.
Jimbo, i really like your count on the EURUSD 1 hour. Would you mind posting the daily, if you have one ?

Thanks

Originally Posted by serhito

Hi all,

I've been away for a week and am trying to catch up.
Jimbo, i really like your count on the EURUSD 1 hour. Would you mind posting the daily, if you have one ?

Thanks

Serhito, I think we are in extended 5th wave on daily and we're yet to see one more leg higher - wave [5] but not before a correction in wave [4].

But of course I could be wrong. That's way I preffer to stay on 1H and 4H where the picture is more clear. Weekly is different story though. I see complete 4 waves so far , which makes me think we are in 5 of (5).

Originally Posted by italm31

Hey Eg,
Welcome to our humble little group. We just have 1 rule...you have to always listen to us cause were always right...lol. (just messin' with you). That is a very intuitive chart especially since you give wave iv of the diagonal relatively equal time as wave ii. I don't know if price will go to 217 before a reversal though. In an ideal world, your chart would would be perfect. Only this is not an ideal world. For you scenario to pan out the way you have it, not only would wave v have to end at 217, virtually 600 pips from where we are, but it would have to do so with almost no volatility and in six days from now. which means wed have a week of low volatility and very narrow range days. If this were the holidays, id say maybe, but I think its very unlikely.

Heres my take on it. I don't try to forecast 2 waves in advance. I always try and forecast where the current wave Im in will end. So I will be ready for a reversal. we could already have a temporary bottom in place for the Gbp/jpy. Just pay attention to see if a new swing high is made of low. If we come back down but don't make a new low, the reverse to the uside, chances are, wave 5 will be complete.

Thank you italm31

That throwover I was expecting did not happen. Thank you for that insight that led to a foresight that the throwover downwards was unlikely to happen. I am not that well versed into all that goes into forex trading analysis. At this point I am still struggling with learning EW.

And below are the charts that I came up with this weekend. I want to bring this out here and maybe get some comments if this is possible or not. I consider EW Counting as an oppportunity to draw out potential directions of Price in the market.

I am attaching 2 charts to support the view that GBPJPY will see a slight downward move this Asia Monday Open then Develops into an EXTENDED WAVE 5 going up for the minimum @ 238.67

But because GBPJPY is a very volatile pair, IMHO, 238.67 is just the minimum which is the 161.8% of the wave0 to wave 3 length, I expect it to go much higher.


EG

No,Adrian I don't think anybody should go short on Usd/Jpy just yet.What I'm saying is its wise to jump out of long position now.It is true we just ended wave 3 of the A wave up at 111.22;but lets look at the reasons why the risk to the upside is high: 1)This is an a wave thererfore it could end in 3 waves or 5 waves depending on the kind of correction that would take place 2)This wave 3 stopped at .38 retracement of the decline from 117 3)Regardless of how you count,this is a 4th wave correction which means a likely flat or possible triangle which means b wave might be long and beleive me u don't want to be caught in a Jpy drawdown. 4)Since wave 3 of A is extended,if there is a 5th wave it should equal wave 1 this could stop at 111.35+/-10 as I posted in my earlier threads but 5th waves are not very predictable and am not sticking around to find out.

Italm,Kurt,Jamie I am not very good at correlating fundamentals with Elliott.But I am curious,do you think Greenspan's advice in September against aggressive rate cuts could have changed things or is this simply inevitable.

What do you guys think about this count for USDJPY

we are so close to the overlapping of what some people are saying is 5 on Japanese yen to the August 1. I just don't know what count to really believe in.

Originally Posted by Dr.Forex

Italm,Kurt,Jamie I am not very good at correlating fundamentals with Elliott.But I am curious,do you think Greenspan's advice in September against aggressive rate cuts could have changed things or is this simply inevitable.

Hey Doc.
The markets are nothing more than a gauge of social mood. News just adds volatility or the fuel that gets price to there inevitable destination. No I don't think rate cuts or lack there of would change anything. Social mood is negative. People are indebted and living paycheck by paycheck. The more they make the more they spend. This has been going on for a while and they don't see a way out. Of coarse the longer it goes on, the larger there debt and its a never ending cycle. So all the rate cuts in the world will not change that. Rates could go down to zero, that does not take way there debt which does not take away there ability to pay that debt, and does not take way their discontent. They are now fearful so they will stop spending which will cause job losses everywhere. Joblosses will cause further fear and the down trends will accelerate which we will recognize as wave 3 down). A crash is unavoidable. Nothing can be done to prevent it or slow it down. Besides Greenspan was right. The Feds don't decide when to lower and rise rates. The markets do. When the markets are in a down trend, the Feds lower rates. When the markets are in an up tends, the feds raise rates. I don't even know what they do during the FOMC meetings. They just follow the markets so whether they lower or raise is a no brainer. Their meetings must last a whole 3 minutes. I sure the rest of the time they watch old episodes of Sienfeild of something...lol.
NO, rates have nothing to do with social mood so they have nothing to do with markets going up r down. If they did, Elliot Wave would be useless.

Italm that was a great response.Thanks

Italm have u seen Jamie's report on Eur/Cad.Its got me very interested.I think it is very close to the top.The 5 wave move up is extended so I think the safe target here would be .38 retracement at 1.4253.My fear is the correction being a flat.A b wave drawdown would be terrible.What do u think?

Adrian,In your UJ daily,I think the wave(iii) is far from complete so if there was an overlap now it wouldn't tell us much.We have to wait a while to test ur ending diagonal theory.

Hey doc,
Your welcome. Thats what this discussion board is about. Your news question was a great question, one which I enjoyed answering. Id love to hear anybodys elses response to it as well. Maybe we can start a round table discussion so if anybody disagrees, do tell.

As far as your question on the Eur/Cad is concerned, its a hard pair to read when you look at a really long term count. Maybe because the Eur is such a new entity on its only, the info somehow got warped along the way. However, its now looking crystal clear. The inevitable direction to me looks up but your right about the next few weeks being down. I see that too. We have 9 waves from the bottom which is impulsive, especially after and abc zigzag where b wave has been breech. Followed by a 5 wave decline which I count as i of a (red). Also, yes I think 4253 is a good minimum target for A. We then should get a b retracement. The final c or wave 2 retracement should be at between
anywhere between 50% and 61% which would be typical. But yes, really short term trade set-up to trying to catch the c of A down at 1.4253 would be very feasible in my opinion.

Heres the ABC correction I was talking about with the Eur/cad where b wave has been breech so the inevitable direction is up but not until a correction lasting several week.

Originally Posted by AdrianEI

What do you guys think about this count for USDJPY

Adrian, my take on the USDJPY is that we are in an impulse wave down with a target of 100 ultimately. In the short term, I think the critical level is 112. That's where your A would be (not shown) and where my 1 is. This move right now should be a flat because if we exceed that 112 then 4 is over 1 (for my count) and I'll know my count is off. On your chart, the B to [i] was a 50% retracement as well so that should signal a flat. Note how we got a retracement of only around 38.2% from your [ii] to [iii] impulse. Again to me further confirmation of a potential flat.

Jamie has forecast a major correction on the Dow in 3 - 5 weeks (4 - 6 in his post of about a week ago). I think that is the move that takes us to 100 probably which is a major retest on the monthly chart. A breach of that could send us into the gutter in a hurry.

Doc & Italm, I'd like to play devil's advocate and challenge Italm's assertions....but I can't. I completely agree with what he's saying. Just listen to CNBC on any given day and you'll have umpteen examples of that theory in practice. They constantly complain that "geez we just got a bunch of bullish news on the fundamentals on this or that stock/commodity and yet the stock/commodity is going in the opposite direction of what you would expect." To me that only exemplifies that any event can trigger any direction based on what the charts are reflecting as the overall sentiment.

More specifically Doc, your question about what fundamentals dictate from the Fed meeting in a week or so, while important to me from a timing perspective, are unimportant in terms of direction. The charts say that we can still expect another drop in the Yen pairs and I think that the Fed announcement could be the trigger for that. If so, then the commentators will say something like "the Fed only gave the market 50 bps where the markets wanted 100bps and that's why its selling off". Total BS.

Maybe to answer your question more directly: I look at the fundamental announcements for triggers in chart moves, but I think outside of that the fundamentals themselves are essentially irrelevant. The markets are based on greed (impulsive ) and fear (corrective), and the one constant (after death - corrective and taxes - impulsive?) is don't fight the trend (as indicated by the charts). If the fundamentals don't confirm the sentiment/charts yet...they will. A rather fatalist attitude I know, but what are you going to do ;^)

Jamie, not sure if I thanked you for your AUDCAD counts so - thank you.

Couple questions for you though. On the 27th in your technical analysis report, you indicated that USDJPY target is 111.75 or higher. By this do you mean neligibly higher, as in not to exceed 112 or appreciably higher? If appreciably higher, then the low of 112 in August must not be a 1?

Second question is if you find use in taking a parallel line of 2 through 4 and putting it either through 3 (or sometimes 1 if 3 is steep) to determine the terminus of 5? I read that this could be useful and in practice have found that it can be quite predictive and possibly additionally determinative for expanded flats. As an example, I used this on my chart of the Dow below and it predicted 5 with uncanny certainty. I would really appreciate your thoughts on this.