I really like CADJPY to the short side... I'm just waiting for the right opportunity to present itself... There's a very clean upward corrective channel on the daily chart.. A violation of that and close beneath it while staying inside the prior down sloping channel will be extremely bearish... I'll be keeping a close eye on this ...
With this new Delta, is ITD 11 expected to be the medium term top for Cable (i.e. Wave 4 top in EW terms)?
Hi A,
With the new Delta, a medium term top (MTD 1) can be due at either ITD 11 this end of May or ITD 2 slightly later in mid June.
Not only will this be a medium term top (MTD 1), but this would also be a long term top (LTD 15) as well because by then there would already be a maximum of 3 MTDs (MTD 9, MTD 11, and MTD 1) between LTD 14 and LTD 15.
Price level wise, maybe we'll target 1.57 or 1.6
We need to pay attention to USD Index as it completes wave C. The timing could coincide.
As to whether LTD 15 is end of wave 4 (which means we'll break 1.35), I am not sure. I am not totally convinced that this is the most correct Elliot Wave count.
From Delta perspective, LTD 15 could be the end of wave 4 only if SLTD 2 has not arrived in LTD 14.
Looking at global macro condition, it seems to me that the economic data is getting better, and since USD is bought due to risk aversion, we need a major collapse in the economy again to cause another major leg of USD buying. But so far I do not see it happening, so I am leaning to the opinion that 1.35 is the Super Long Term Delta low (SLTD 2).
If 1.35 is SLTD 2, then after the arrival of MTD 1 / LTD 15 this end of month (mid June), we will drop hard for the next 2 months, but the drop will not be lower than 1.35.
These Yen crosses have got my mind just boggled.... One says up, the other says down.. I'm not sure what to expect... Anyway, here's a look at the daily chart of GBPJPY... Looks to me like a triple zig zag is under way here... We need a little bit of a drop to complete wave "B" of larger wave "Z" before a large rally upwards completes wave "C" of "Z" and the entire triple zig zag... A few days ago I posted looking for a small triangle to appear in between the over head FIB resistance, however instead it looks like the FIB cluster has repelled price lower and I think we'll see a re-test of the lower part of the rising channel before a further rise.... I think intra-day short positions look attractive with a 148.15 entry // Stop at 149.60 // Target at 145.00 ... From there I would look to flip to long....
These Yen crosses have got my mind just boggled.... One says up, the other says down.. I'm not sure what to expect... Anyway, here's a look at the daily chart of GBPJPY... Looks to me like a triple zig zag is under way here... We need a little bit of a drop to complete wave "B" of larger wave "Z" before a large rally upwards completes wave "C" of "Z" and the entire triple zig zag... A few days ago I posted looking for a small triangle to appear in between the over head FIB resistance, however instead it looks like the FIB cluster has repelled price lower and I think we'll see a re-test of the lower part of the rising channel before a further rise.... I think intra-day short positions look attractive with a 148.15 entry // Stop at 149.60 // Target at 145.00 ... From there I would look to flip to long....
Saw your charts... All that Delta stuff is too much for my mind.. lol .. but good to know thats what you're looking for too...
Ha.. it's actually very easy. Just a simple concept that highs and lows (not the high and low in price level but the high and low in time) repeat in cycle. That's why you see color vertical lines in my chart. One cycle has four vertical lines (red, blue, green, yellow), then the cycle repeats in another set of red, blue, green, yellow, and so on.
Let's say if we see a high near the red vertical line, then in the next cycle we should also expect another high near the red vertical line. The price level of course will not be the same, but timing wise, we should expect a top (a high) to be formed around the same time, which is near the red vertical line.
Hence you see for example in my Medium Term Delta chart, in the past cycle, MTD 4 high was formed at the green vertical line. In the past cycle, the price level of MTD 4 high was 209 on April 2008.
In current cycle, MTD 4 was again formed at the green vertical line. Timing wise, it matches almost perfectly. The MTD 4 price level of current cycle is 151.5 on April 2009.
Ha.. it's actually very easy. Just a simple concept that highs and lows (not the high and low in price level but the high and low in time) repeat in cycle. That's why you see color vertical lines in my chart. One cycle has four vertical lines (red, blue, green, yellow), then the cycle repeats in another set of red, blue, green, yellow, and so on.
Let's say if we see a high near the red vertical line, then in the next cycle we should also expect another high near the red vertical line. The price level of course will not be the same, but timing wise, we should expect a top (a high) to be formed around the same time, which is near the red vertical line.
Hence you see for example in my Medium Term Delta chart, in the past cycle, MTD 4 high was formed at the green vertical line. In the past cycle, the price level of MTD 4 high was 209 on April 2008.
In current cycle, MTD 4 was again formed at the green vertical line. Timing wise, it matches almost perfectly. The MTD 4 price level of current cycle is 151.5 on April 2009.
I understand that.. That's not too hard.. lol ... Just sounds a bit more complex sometimes.. Thanks for that explanation
Hey Guys,
Its been a while...hope there still room on this forum for an old friend...ha ha.
Ive been keeping up with the posts so I trust and hope everyone is A OK and wish you all nothing but profits. The reason for this post is I am pretty bullish USD for now anyways (execpt vs Swissie and yen of course). I have a theory on the Euro. I saw some bullish counts but have yet to see a bearish one. I like the counts I see but I really need 1.3740 to be surpassed before I trurn bullish on it. the reason is that I see the Euro in a B wave. We all know triangles occur as wave 4s or wave Bs. Therefor, this triangle scenario, in my opinion can't be rulled out. A breech of 1.3740 (wave c of the triangle) would negate the triangle scenario but everytime it tries to break it, it comes short. Albiet, its not the prettiest triangle, but until C is breeched, its a triangle. For now, Im short Euro as of 1.3700...stop 1.3740 well see what happens.
Italm,
Here are two bearish scenarios to consider - the difference between them - the latter allows for a break of 3740:
Last edited by freelancer; 05-13-2009 at 02:36 AM.
These Yen crosses have got my mind just boggled.... One says up, the other says down.. I'm not sure what to expect... Anyway, here's a look at the daily chart of GBPJPY... Looks to me like a triple zig zag is under way here... We need a little bit of a drop to complete wave "B" of larger wave "Z" before a large rally upwards completes wave "C" of "Z" and the entire triple zig zag... A few days ago I posted looking for a small triangle to appear in between the over head FIB resistance, however instead it looks like the FIB cluster has repelled price lower and I think we'll see a re-test of the lower part of the rising channel before a further rise.... I think intra-day short positions look attractive with a 148.15 entry // Stop at 149.60 // Target at 145.00 ... From there I would look to flip to long....
Any thoughts on this count anyone ??
Hi Brad i found the following , u may already know it. Its a simple calculation of the crosses.
For example right now cable is 1.5278 and USDJPY is 96.58 and GBPJPY is 147.56
if you multiple, 1.5278 * 96.58 = u get the GBPJPY rate.
so if you expect in one month the usdjpy lower and cable higher u can make a projection using the above.
ie in one month cable 1.5750 and usdjpy 92.50 = 145.75
I hope i wasnt teaching anyone to such egges here.
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Originally Posted by apipintime 
