Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

Originally Posted by Gray

Hey guys

What do you think of this count for the beast?
We may be looking at a bounce from the trend line shown to form wave a of (v) and a possible target for wave (v)C would be 1.61xwA = around 157.05 or above.

Chart update from 2 may

Hey guys, has anyone noticed the diverging trend lines on this pair?. If the current b wave ends at the black trend line ( which is also the 61.8 retracement of wave a), does that mean a possible target for wave c is at the top trend line around the 161.8 expansion of wave a at around 163 ?

Hi All,

Here is my attempt at the count.

Originally Posted by 4cfx

Hi All,

Here is my attempt at the count.

Hey, not bad, you are definately making progress !

Keep doing good work

Originally Posted by ravno

Hey, not bad, you are definately making progress !

Keep doing good work

Hey thanks. I really appreciate all the help from you and others in the forum.

Will keep trying.

Originally Posted by ravno

Hi guys!

Regarding the topic.

I've written to EWI and here are the answers.

--------------------- the first answer ------------
The end of wave 4 can never overlap the price territory of wave 1.
-------------------------------------------------

then i asked about the whole wave 4, and

--------------------- the second answer ---------
Except for the end of wave 4, parts of wave 4 can overlap wave 1, as with a triangle. However, as a strong guideline, you should not expect to see this type of overlap of wave 1 or overlap of wave 2 (expanded flat). If that happens, please recheck your wave count.
-------------------------------------------------

So, now it's officially confirmed and i admit i was a bit too strict...

Here, as an apologise
The possible short-term count for GBP.USD using the newly gained knowledge...
There is also an alternate count at the bottom.

Thank you for clearing that up for us!

Yesterday I had the perfect example. I traded the gbpusd and set the stop at the bottom of wave i. If you look in the highlighted area you see that the wicks of 1 and 4 overlap but not the solid body's. It counted as an impulse inspite of the overlap. Next time my stops will be a little higher.

Trade update...yesterday to today....target reached @ 1.5070

Originally Posted by Ilovepippin

Thank you for clearing that up for us!

Yesterday I had the perfect example. I traded the gbpusd and set the stop at the bottom of wave i. If you look in the highlighted area you see that the wicks of 1 and 4 overlap but not the solid body's. It counted as an impulse inspite of the overlap. Next time my stops will be a little higher.

Wave 4 eventually developed into a triangle with it's "e" wave high at 1.5163, which never would have entered into the territory of wave 1. Looks as if we should get a retrace into the 1.52 area for another short op.

Originally Posted by Ilovepippin

Thank you for clearing that up for us!

Yesterday I had the perfect example. I traded the gbpusd and set the stop at the bottom of wave i. If you look in the highlighted area you see that the wicks of 1 and 4 overlap but not the solid body's. It counted as an impulse inspite of the overlap. Next time my stops will be a little higher.

The concept doesn't have anything to do with the wicks of a candle versus the bodies of the candle. It's all about the orthodox end of the pattern versus the price extremes reached during the pattern. There are two diagrams below. One shows a fourth wave triangle and the other shows a fourth wave running flat. You can see that in both of these examples that during the fourth wave corrections, price rallied up into the area of the first wave. That's the price extreme. However, when the pattern officially ended, which is the orthodox ending, that price was below the wave one low. In other words, at the end of the pattern there was no wave one/wave four overlap. In these two cases, the counts are valid even with the overlap because it's the orthodox end of the pattern that matters and not the price extremes.

A lot of people confuse the idea of orthodox versus price extreme with the wicks and bodies of a candlestick chart. A candlestick just shows the open/high/low/close of a certain price period, which has nothing to do with orthodox/price extremes. The concept of orthodox tops/bottoms deals with wave structure. For instance, maybe wave (A) of a triangle violated the overlap rule, but by the patterns end at wave (E) there was no overlap. However, if a candlestick that occured during what was labeled as wave (E) of a triangle did actually reach into the area of the first wave, then that count would be invalid. The reason being because at the patterns end, the orthodox ending, there was wave one/wave four overlap.

Looks as if we are correcting in a wave (iv) of C, possibly into the 145.70 area. I will be looking for completion of wave (v) to go long for what should be a helluva Wave C of Z into the 160 area.

Originally Posted by justy10125

The concept doesn't have anything to do with the wicks of a candle versus the bodies of the candle. It's all about the orthodox end of the pattern versus the price extremes reached during the pattern. There are two diagrams below....

Excellent explanation Justy...

Here's an interesting chart. EURCAD just completed a nice 5 waves down. I did one of Robert Miner's TCR (Time Cycle Ratio) projections and here's what I came up with. The potential dates for the next high are on the chart.

Opinions? Anyone else using this tool in their trading?

Edit; I should just add that using this same time study the end of C falls perfectly.

Here is a possible Daily count for GBP/JPY. The apex of the triangle would be consistent with cmellon's Delta cycle prediction of a top in mid July.

Hi there, might this also be possible?

Originally Posted by 4cfx

Hi there, might this also be possible?

Hi 4c,

One of the rules of an expanding triangle states, "Subwaves (B), (C), and (D) each retrace at least 100 percent but no more than 150 percent of the preceding subwave." What you have labeled as wave (B) of your triangle does not retrace wave (A) by at least 100 percent, which makes that an invalid triangle.

It looks like a fourth-wave flat is nearing an end. The wave (C) rally should end somewhere in the blue box, which is the area of the fourth wave of a lesser degree.