Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

That triple zig zag I've been posting for GBPJPY for quite some time is playing out... Price has just closed the day and the week above strong fib resistance which will now act as support for anyone wanting to initiate fresh longs... We should see price continue to rise in this pair ... Keep your eyes peeled for a major reversal at 162.76 which is the 100.0 FIB extension of the first corrective wave in larger wave "Z" and upper channel resistance ----////----

Here is an update to the EUR/USD counts I'm following. Price has made a nice rally over the last two weeks, which is what all of these counts called for.

On the updated chart, the three counts on the left are all calling for continued EUR/USD strength. The three counts on the right side are all looking for EUR/USD to top out soon. So it's possible that next week's trading could see EUR/USD run into some resistance.

Below is a 15min S&P futures chart showing a perfect bearish formation setup. I'm always leary of these perfect scenarios because they can easily suck an elliotician in and take a lot of their money if they lose their money/risk management discipline because of the "perfectness" of the setup.

With that in mind, it brings a great trading opportunity nonetheless. There are four major pieces of evidence that support the immediate short term bearish view of the stock market:

1) a clear 5 waves down suggest for at least the short term the trend is down.

2) the market rallied today in a corrective manner and was repelled at the 38% fibo level.

3) the S&P cash index made a slight new high today above 895.61 while the S&P futures failed to make a new high. This bearish divergence is immediately bearish as long as it remains intact.

4) down volume well exceeded up volume in the broader market today even though it was up most of the day which is a stark contrast to the type of bullish internals we've seen the last two months. This signals an exhaustion of bullishness.

I fully expect the market to continue its decline what's probably a C wave within a larger X wave into the 875 and possibly the 824 support levels.

American-T
Stock Market and Forex Analysis using Elliott Wave Principle

Here's a count for the USD/CHF daily chart. Once the wave (C) decline is complete, there will be a great buying opportunity. Risk will be confined to a few hundred pips with a reward of at least 1,000 pips.

Took a long EURNZD 2.2530, stop 2.2180, TP 2.6.
Chart below showing uptrend support from since feb 08, and we could be entering wave 5?? I'm just starting elliot so I could be very wrong here, so any comments most welcome.....

Thanks

Originally Posted by justy10125

Here's a count for the USD/CHF daily chart. Once the wave (C) decline is complete, there will be a great buying opportunity. Risk will be confined to a few hundred pips with a reward of at least 1,000 pips.

All the best to you with this forecast -----

Aud/Usd

Long Term View ( Baily Bars )

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Aud/Usd

Mid-Term View ( 2hr Bars )

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Very nice, how about this one;

1) Target 1,4162 to short it for correction. A=B=C,, each wave with 1211 pips comes true on there.

2) Larger degree target up as 1.5150.

3) In shortest timeframe subminuette W3 ended with 1.4050, correcting W4 down perhaps to the 38.2 or 50 % size.

>>>>>MARKET GEOMETRY<<<<<

Originally Posted by justy10125

Here is an update to the EUR/USD counts I'm following. Price has made a nice rally over the last two weeks, which is what all of these counts called for.

On the updated chart, the three counts on the left are all calling for continued EUR/USD strength. The three counts on the right side are all looking for EUR/USD to top out soon. So it's possible that next week's trading could see EUR/USD run into some resistance.

Thanks Justy for such a detailed analysis of the euro. Those process of elimination charts you post from time to time are a great insight into the possibilities....A great post as usual...

Regards

Originally Posted by marketwavez2

Aud/Usd

Mid-Term View ( 2hr Bars )

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Market,

Can I please ask you a question (I am very new to Elliot and trying to learn). In the above chart, how far down can wave 5 of 3 drop to before the count is invalid? Is it below the start of wave 4 .7450? Or would it be deemed if price broke back under support at .77 then we may see a greater fall?
I appreciate you time. Thanks

B

Originally Posted by brad_1199

I have no idea what Jaime has been thinking trying to call a top in AUDUSD for months now... Especially with intervention in play from Australia and the bank calling for a year end recovery... One look at this chart and I can clearly see we're still working higher in wave 3 of "C" .. There is a strong FIB confluence resistance at .7925 which should see price get dragged sideways back to the lower channel line over the next few weeks for another long opportunity...

Hi Brad;

You stated that "I have no idea what Jaime has been thinking trying to call a top in AUDUSD for months now..." Let me see if I can clear things up for you.

The move from late Oct to Jan 09 in your chart is clearly a 3 wave move which, I think you have correctly labeled "A". This move up (3-3-5 a flat ) was followed by a 3 wave down move. The logical conclusion in my mind was that a flat correction was unfolding. The move up in the channel prior to the first correction is 5 an satisfies the requirement for a flat. (I jumped on it and got stopped out.) So, then the next logical conclusion is a complex correction that is unfolding in a tripple 3.

If it is a tripple 3, the 2 channeled waves will be equal at 7987 to 8002 or there abouts. I think it is correcting now but, I will wait for the up move to determine if I should take a trade. I also have the 161.8% of wave A target at 8328.

If it does reverse in this area, I look for a target in the 4300 range as the previous move down was impulsive. Again, I am not saying you are incorrect on your call and I don't know that Jamies' conclusions are consistent with mine.

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by pubber

Market,

Can I please ask you a question (I am very new to Elliot and trying to learn). In the above chart, how far down can wave 5 of 3 drop to before the count is invalid? Is it below the start of wave 4 .7450? Or would it be deemed if price broke back under support at .77 then we may see a greater fall?
I appreciate you time. Thanks

B

Hi there , Pubber

to begin with ........ I don't know where price is going for sure


--- all the charts posted in here are only Probabilities ------

Price-action does not always reach its intended targets

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The answre to your question is -
when prices top out at the End of Wave 3 , and begin to decline
then------------- Wave 4 should not overlap Wave 1

Trading is about your Averages over time ,,,,,,
You will Win some times ...... and you will Lose some times

When you find a wave count you like ,,, don't be afraid !
- you must be confident in it and stand your ground

IF you are new ,

Read Robert Miners Book -----and ------ read Pretcher's Book
( and give yourself a solid 6 to 8 months of drawing charts )
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Your confidence is very important .......because just like learning anything else ,,,,,
You must Practice ,,,,, Practice ,, ,,,,,, Practice ,,,,,,, Practice ,,,,,,,,,,,,,

which means to post your charts.........and then come back and update them ,,,,,
( that's how you practice )
so that over time , you can then go back and review your charts

In time , reviewing your own charts will be your best teacher

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Here is the cover of Miner's basic book

Looks like we are nearing the end of Wave (iii) of 3.

Original Post :
Click here
http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/chart...till-work.html
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Quote : According to a very interesting article published in the Stocks and Commodities Magazine (May 2009 issue), the failure rate of charts patterns has tripled in recent years, at least in the stock market.

After studying 13,932 charts patterns spread over the years from 1991 to 2008, Thomas Bulkowski (THE expert in chart patterns) found out that these patterns are now 3 times more likely to fail than in the past!

Patterns studied are diamonds tops and bottoms, double tops and bottoms (8 types of Adam et Eve combinaisons), triple tops and bottoms, rising and failing wedges, head and shoulders tops and bottoms (4 types of simple and complex), ascending, descending and symetrical triangles, and rectangle tops and bottoms.

Excluded were broadening patterns (6 types) and scallops (4 types) because of the difficulty in determining where the breakout is.

So, if you have found it more difficult to trade charts patterns the last several years, now you know why [/End QUOTE]


Do Chart Patterns Still Work ?
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Well , Well , Well ,
i have been saying this for the last few years .......

-it's finally nice to see some one else bring up this topic.....

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Chart Patterns have a high failure rate when applied to individual stocks
and also ,
the use of Elliott Waves also has a high failure rate when applied to individual stocks ........

Learn about this here ---- Learn it --------- now ! .......,

Why is this ...... ?

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Discussion about this is over here ,

click here : http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/chart...till-work.html and see what others are saying

Elliott Waves is best when applied to Futures, Forex, T-Bonds and Stock Indexes


bye the way ,
Chart Patterns and Elliott Waves actually works fine with stock indexes
( Ex ... Dow Jones , Nasdaq100 , S & P 500 ......... etc )


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Again,
its finally nice to see some-one else bring up this topic .....