Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

Originally Posted by marketwavez2

I really feel badly for people like this , in this situation


Now that the job is over ,
Why do none of them just go out and trade there own account?

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And now not to continue to rub salt in the wounds, but...

Your article said the guy lost his job in 2007. There wasn't really anything too bad happening in the year 2007. The equities market had just begun it's decline, so people weren't too worried about that at the time. And Oil, the market that this guy traded, was in a bull market during the entire year of 2007.

Of course I don't know the facts of why this guy lost his job, but I can make a couple of guesses as to why: Either he was just a bad trader who couldn't even make a buck in a bull market, or his company was possibly way too overleveraged for their own good. When the market started to turn, their company may have been too over-extended and let a small setback due them in. That is even assuming they were holding equities. My guess is that he was a bad trader...

Possibly a retrace to the head and shoulders neckline before moving higher.

Originally Posted by marketwavez2

Usd/Cad

Here's another
new wave count

======================

This count looks familiar. I would have to agree.

I've got long orders pending for GBPJPY at 156.50 roughly 50 pips above FIB Support, with stops at 153.00.... I'm looking for an intra-day move up to Fibonacci Resistance at 164.74 ---///--- Not sure exactly what's up as far as GBPUSD and USDJPY are concerned, but right now I know what I see in this pair...

Risk for this trade is 350 pips ---//--- Reward potential is 824 pips

It's possible to count five waves up on the short-term USD/CHF charts.

Originally Posted by justy10125

Another reason to favor the triangle in EUR/USD is because of the stupid EUR/CHF. I think the USD trend change is clear... EUR/USD headed lower and USD/CHF headed higher. EUR/USD is likely headed lower in wave (C) of a triangle and USD/CHF is likely headed higher in either wave (3) of an impulse or wave (C) of a zig/zag. Both EUR and CHF will be getting weaker along the way. The cool thing, though, is that even though both currencies will be getting weaker at the same time, the stupid EUR/CHF longs should benefit. The EUR/USD will be declining in a wave (C) of a triangle. USD/CHF will be rallying in a wave (C) or wave (3), which will be technically stronger than the declining (C) wave in EUR/USD. So, the CHF should be getting weaker faster than the EUR will be, which should send the stupid EUR/CHF higher.

While we seem to be in agreement with the Euro count, Im still not quite sure about Eur/chf. I have a different view Id like to put forth. If anything, it demenstrates how even for Ellioticians, things are not always black and white. We need to be prepared for the grey. While you are bullish on this pair, I beleive a wave III of 3 down may be in play. Ive been waitin for a fall for quite a while and it still looks plausible to me. Although, a breech above 5446 and all bets are off for the bulls will be in total control and I will join your camp. However, if we break 5000...Watch out!

Originally Posted by italm31

While we seem to be in agreement with the Euro count, Im still not quite sure about Eur/chf. I have a different view Id like to put forth. If anything, it demenstrates how even for Ellioticians, things are not always black and white. We need to be prepared for the grey. While you are bullish on this pair, I beleive a wave III of 3 down may be in play. Ive been waitin for a fall for quite a while and it still looks plausible to me. Although, a breech above 5446 and all bets are off for the bulls will be in total control and I will join your camp. However, if we break 5000...Watch out!

Actually, Elliott Wave may just be more black and white than it might seem to most people. Your count is indeed one of the possibilities that I've been following. Based off of the 1.68 - 1.53 decline (shown in red on first chart), there are only three possible wave-counts. There is the impulsive count, that is bearish, and two bullish counts. One is a zig/zag decline and the other is a flat correction.

I have not said that the impulsive count you are following is incorrect, it's just highly unlikely. Based on your count, you have indicated that wave 3-of-3-of-3-of-3 is underway. That's a lot of threes, right? And they imply one major thing: That this market should be declining quite rapidly right now. The series of first and second waves implies that there is a massive selling pressure. But it's just not happening. This market has been moving basically sideways for a long time. The idea may be out there that the market is "getting ready" to plummet, but it doesn't make sense. If this 3-of-3-of3... is unfolding, price should be dropping.

My preferred count is the one that treats the five-wave decline (shown in red on first chart) as wave (C) of a flat correction. My secondary count is the A-B-C decline. Both of these counts are bullish, so I expect higher prices over the next few months or so.

Originally Posted by justy10125

Actually, Elliott Wave may just be more black and white than it might seem to most people. Your count is indeed one of the possibilities that I've been following. Based off of the 1.68 - 1.53 decline (shown in red on first chart), there are only three possible wave-counts. There is the impulsive count, that is bearish, and two bullish counts. One is a zig/zag decline and the other is a flat correction.

I have not said that the impulsive count you are following is incorrect, it's just highly unlikely. Based on your count, you have indicated that wave 3-of-3-of-3-of-3 is underway. That's a lot of threes, right? And they imply one major thing: That this market should be declining quite rapidly right now. The series of first and second waves implies that there is a massive selling pressure. But it's just not happening. This market has been moving basically sideways for a long time. The idea may be out there that the market is "getting ready" to plummet, but it doesn't make sense. If this 3-of-3-of3... is unfolding, price should be dropping.

My preferred count is the one that treats the five-wave decline (shown in red on first chart) as wave (C) of a flat correction. My secondary count is the A-B-C decline. Both of these counts are bullish, so I expect higher prices over the next few months or so.

Duly noted...However, I still see a leading diagonal on the daily chart for wave 1 down...so unless I see 5446 taken out, I will remain a bear...That is alot of 3s isn't it...all the more reason why if thing does break to the downside, we could be looking at a bloodbath...and thats what Im interested in. I have a short entry at 1.5000 so for now, I dont have a vested interest in this pair. I guess price will be the ultimate decider. Good luck.

Hi Guys,

perhaps finally a proper -&s top is being formed

Price has now penetrated the low of last weeks shooting star left on the weekly chart... This looks like a full out bearish reversal right now with lots of pips of for grabs for bears I'm short and lovin it !

Originally Posted by justy10125

Hey Guys,

Oil has completed a five-wave rally, so we should now see a downward correction unfold over the next week or two.

Justy, do you have a target for oil for the correction?

Originally Posted by brad_1199

I've got long orders pending for GBPJPY at 156.50 roughly 50 pips above FIB Support, with stops at 153.00.... I'm looking for an intra-day move up to Fibonacci Resistance at 164.74 ---///--- Not sure exactly what's up as far as GBPUSD and USDJPY are concerned, but right now I know what I see in this pair...

Risk for this trade is 350 pips ---//--- Reward potential is 824 pips

I cant see why anyone would want try and long this , when cable is is about to fall off a cliff. ( Ok USDJPY a little more difficult to say but even with that price is only chopping around) You said you dont know what cable is doing, yet on friday you showed a chart with 3 black crows, a very bearish set up and it has followed through today.

You have me lost Brad for words!!

Chart attached and the count is clear from the top its a 1: 2 down, the only way one should think about a long is if we take out 15865 again. other best bet is down , but the risk reward is not as favourable from current levels.


FXT

Edit for some reason i cant get a chart up...

Originally Posted by marketwavez2

Eur/Usd

Mid term view ---- Chart Update

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Could it be end of wave 4 correction?
If this indeed is wave 4 abc, then have to be careful, dont get caught on the wrong side.

* Found that labelling is wrong, if it is C, should have 5 waves. Renamed A to i, B to ii, 1.3924 iii, 126.8 line as iv and C as v
So this possible to be wave A instead of 4

Eurusd broke through the trendchannel.
I am waiting for a pullbacvk to go short. This move is very violent and a lot more violent than I anticipated. Sell the pullbacks.

is there anyone who can say if this formation is legitimate ?

cocoa chart !!