Cmellon... Kind of curious what your delta logic tells you about EURJPY.... I am very confident in the diagonal triangle scenario that I show in the chart below, but something tells me your delta logic likely points down much sooner.... If you have time for a reply, great
Cmellon... Kind of curious what your delta logic tells you about EURJPY.... I am very confident in the diagonal triangle scenario that I show in the chart below, but something tells me your delta logic likely points down much sooner.... If you have time for a reply, great
EURJPY Daily Chart ------------->
Hi Brad,
EUR / JPY is not my specialty. I do not have LTD chart with this pair. If I do, that will boost my confidence a lot more.
Having said that, I am pretty confident with this MTD chart I am about to show.
If you look at the chart, let's start with the low of this year at 112 (I put rectangle at the chart). Let's call this MTD 1 low which is also LTD 1 low.
From that low point to the high at 139.2, you could count three MTD highs (MTD 2, MTD 4, and MTD 6). I circle MTD 2, MTD 4, and MTD 6 for you.
The reason I am sure these are MTD points is because you compare the turning points to the previous cycles and that's where they were due approximately. If you look at previous cycle, MTD 2 was due between yellow and green vertical line. MTD 4 was due near green vertical line, and MTD 6 was due slightly before red vertical line.
Delta rule says there could only be a maximum of three series of higher high. In this case, from the low point of 112 (MTD 1), we already have three series of higher highs in MTD 2, MTD 4, and MTD 6. Delta rule says MTD 6 must also be LTD high. In other words, if the low point of 112 is LTD 1, the high point of 139.2 must be LTD 2.
The implication is that since the LTD (a higher TF than MTD) now is travelling down, we will have a series of lower high and lower low in MTD chart.
I posted this GBP / JPY chart earlier before NFP at Geppy forum. This is what I think could be happening. There's a good probability that 160.26 is ITD 6 high since the position is pretty comparable to previous cycles (between red and blue vertical lines).
If MTD is travelling down like I expect, we shall see a series of lower high and lower low in ITD time frame. In other words, ITD 7 would be lower than ITD 5 (lower than 154). Notice ITD 7 in previous cycles were due after blue vertical line. I expect it the same in the current cycle, that's probably due mid or third week of July for ITD 7 low.
Took profit for my 158.8 short position, and move stop loss for my 159.8 short to 1 pip above 160.26.
Good analysis Market....I had a flat correction going on..but your 5 wave truncation looks spot on. Let's see how it plays out in the next trading session.
Wave 4 of diagonal likely complete. wave 2 is 64% of wave 1 and wave 4 is currently 64% of wave 3. Neely implies that wave 4 is likely to be more complex than wave 2 therefore, price could drop below 3988. Likely targets for this leg up wave 5 of leading diagonal are 4199 as 61.8% of 3 and, 4324 at 99% of 3. Caution: wave 1 is extended so watch for lower target.
Afterward, expect a drop to about 3881 then I have high target at 4821. Subject to change.
Good Luck.
Last edited by aerocom; 07-02-2009 at 02:07 PM.
Reason: change price
Looks as if we completed a flat correction, and are in the process of completing 5 waves up from the 1.1436 low. I will be looking for completion of wave 5 and then a 3 wave pullback into the 1.15-1.1550 area for a long entry.
[QUOTE=brad_1199;302825]Cmellon... Kind of curious what your delta logic tells you about EURJPY.... I am very confident in the diagonal triangle scenario that I show in the chart below, but something tells me your delta logic likely points down much sooner.... If you have time for a reply, great
EURJPY Daily Chart ------------->
Brad - a truncated 5th of an ED is a possibilty inline with cmellon`s delta count
Good analysis Market....I had a flat correction going on..but your 5 wave truncation looks spot on. Let's see how it plays out in the next trading session.
Just in case nobody has noticed - we have a channel breakout - and a double rejection of a sloping TL at .50 fibo - I think it could go lower without making new high -
lack of impulsive moves (aussie, kiwi, loonie, cable also) could be pointing for a B wave unfolding now - probably a running flat in order to respect the sloping TL - we`re in a fast movin` bear market
weekly candlsticks -double hanging man covered with a long black candlstick (if this week closes here or lower) look undoubtedly bearish
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Originally Posted by brad_1199 
