Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

Originally Posted by EZCashDreams

First..I am still short from 84.32 from last week. Hedged with a USD/CAD short so the pain isn't to bad. YET!

I am looking for a little pull back here for wave 4 of 5 and then a move up to finish the 5 waves up shown on the 4 hr chart, around 88.50. At that point I will add to the short position for an ABC pull back to the 84.00 area at which point it should be time to go long for another 5 up.

Current stop and the stop on the additional short position will be at 89.50. I do not expect that but you never know.

If we pull back to the 84.00 area from here then the 5 up is complete and I will exit the short for a small gain and go long.


That's the plan....hope it works...

Personally I think you will be safe. I entered at 85 and have my stops at 89.50 which is just above the June 1 high of 89.389. Given the gap lower at open and the last candle (which I though was a hanging man on Friday but have since found out it is an abandoned baby) I think the top is in place.

Price seems to be testing the trendline and the 50% fib line right now and may end with a double top but seems to be turning lower although it has not moved a whole lot yet today. I am hoping that it will go lower by the time I log on in the morning but if it goes much higher I will just hedge if needed.

Here is a short-term EUR/USD wave-count. I think price is headed higher in what will be an extended third wave.

Wave (1) was 133 pips, so the 161.8% extension identifies a target area of about 1.4385 for wave (3).

hi ALL


I know you people are bit busy About Your Own Counts ...


but I just want to ask you something about The Irregular Pattern C=.318A


I little Confused about The .318 Fibo..mean they are saying that Drag fibo A to B ,, then the Point 0.318% you got The C...


this


thank you need your Help

Originally Posted by EZCashDreams

First..I am still short from 84.32 from last week. Hedged with a USD/CAD short so the pain isn't to bad. YET!

I am looking for a little pull back here for wave 4 of 5 and then a move up to finish the 5 waves up shown on the 4 hr chart, around 88.50. At that point I will add to the short position for an ABC pull back to the 84.00 area at which point it should be time to go long for another 5 up.

Current stop and the stop on the additional short position will be at 89.50. I do not expect that but you never know.

If we pull back to the 84.00 area from here then the 5 up is complete and I will exit the short for a small gain and go long.


That's the plan....hope it works...

i rather like brad's short call for the cadjpy pair, the spot market position does favor bears, I have been short since 86.00 and plan on holding.

Brad are you still here ? Don't be a stranger, i dont post in the forum, but i do enjoy your analysis, would be great if you keep posting, i have learned so much from you. Hope to see more from you.

Originally Posted by justy10125

Hey Pippin,

I've got a similar count for EUR/USD, but I'm looking for price to continue a bit higher still. I'm counting the recent choppy price action in the 1.4200 price zone as a fourth-wave expanding triangle.

The blue dashed lines are an Elliott channel drawn from the wave (1) and wave (3) highs, with a parallel line placed on the low made by wave (2). You can see that the end of the fourth-wave triangle ended exactly on that line, which is typical according to Elliott.

I'm looking for wave (5) to end somewhere around 1.4400. This is where wave (1) and (5) will be about equal. This should coincide with a rally up into the upper channel line.

Justy, can you post subwaves count of this wave 4 (triangle) ?
thanks..

Originally Posted by bohebolo

Justy, can you post subwaves count of this wave 4 (triangle) ?
thanks..

that was probably not a triangle but an expanded Flat...

Hmm, when i look into the OIL chart, i see the chance that the 5 up are completed. I must admit that i have little experience with commodities and i have read then they tend to have the extended 5-th waves.
However, based on the structure which i see, the wave 3 was already exiended. Will we also get the extended 5-th ?
Hm...

See also the USD.CAD charts.
Do you remember the recent discussion where we have identifed the seemingly clear 5 up from 1,0960 to 1,1115. However, that move didn't get any extension later on and the low got broken..
I believe i finally found out where and how this 5 wave move feets into the picture.

Now, finally, the USD.CAD correlates perfectly with OIL again...
If 1,0925 is broken to the upside, that would be a confirmation that the proposed wave structure is most probably correct.
The similar level for OIL is 66,40.

Originally Posted by ravno

that was probably not a triangle but an expanded Flat...

Hey Ravno,

I notice there is a 61.8 fibo in your charts, I just cannot figure out the start and end point of this fib. Could you kindly show me? Thanks a lot.

Originally Posted by hnbe

Hey Ravno,

I notice there is a 61.8 fibo in your charts, I just cannot figure out the start and end point of this fib. Could you kindly show me? Thanks a lot.

You mean EUR.USD 2 Hours chart ?
Than it's the Fibo projection/extension of the wave [1], taken (projected) from what i suspect to be the end of the wave [4].
This is one of the way how to find the estimated end of the wave [5]...

Originally Posted by ravno

You mean EUR.USD 2 Hours chart ?
Than it's the Fibo projection/extension of the wave [1], taken (projected) from what i suspect to be the end of the wave [4].
This is one of the way how to find the estimated end of the wave [5]...

got it, thanks again.

Couple days ago I posted a chart where GBPJPY was possibly unfolding an expanded triangle.

Here is the update...

Originally Posted by justy10125

Hey Pippin,

I've got a similar count for EUR/USD, but I'm looking for price to continue a bit higher still. I'm counting the recent choppy price action in the 1.4200 price zone as a fourth-wave expanding triangle.

The blue dashed lines are an Elliott channel drawn from the wave (1) and wave (3) highs, with a parallel line placed on the low made by wave (2). You can see that the end of the fourth-wave triangle ended exactly on that line, which is typical according to Elliott.

I'm looking for wave (5) to end somewhere around 1.4400. This is where wave (1) and (5) will be about equal. This should coincide with a rally up into the upper channel line.

You are probably right, as price (wave c) ran flat against the channel.

Originally Posted by Xiao

hi ALL


I know you people are bit busy About Your Own Counts ...


but I just want to ask you something about The Irregular Pattern C=.318A


I little Confused about The .318 Fibo..mean they are saying that Drag fibo A to B ,, then the Point 0.318% you got The C...


this


thank you need your Help

Xiao,

I just (last week), posted extensively about the irregular tops or expanded flats as they are called. Read through my previous posts.

Wave C can be anywhere, but you are aiming for equality of wave A.
So as a rule wave C=A.
Wave C= A*1.38
Wave C= A*2.0

Important is to realize that these are guidelines and most important is wave personality.

Originally Posted by ravno

Hmm, when i look into the OIL chart, i see the chance that the 5 up are completed. I must admit that i have little experience with commodities and i have read then they tend to have the extended 5-th waves.
However, based on the structure which i see, the wave 3 was already exiended. Will we also get the extended 5-th ?
Hm...

See also the USD.CAD charts.
Do you remember the recent discussion where we have identifed the seemingly clear 5 up from 1,0960 to 1,1115. However, that move didn't get any extension later on and the low got broken..
I believe i finally found out where and how this 5 wave move feets into the picture.

Now, finally, the USD.CAD correlates perfectly with OIL again...
If 1,0925 is broken to the upside, that would be a confirmation that the proposed wave structure is most probably correct.
The similar level for OIL is 66,40.

Hey Ravno,

Looks like we completed 5 down and it also appears that we have completed/or are completing 5up on 5 min chart.

Originally Posted by apipintime

Hey Ravno,

Looks like we completed 5 down and it also appears that we have completed/or are completing 5up on 5 min chart.

The chances are

On 5 minutes, however, as of right now (14:50 European Time) we have only three up..