Yeah, the zig/zag rally would be my preferred count. If the rise off of the lows is actually an impulse, as I have it labeled in the previous chart, then the only two things it could be is:
-Wave (A) of a Zig/Zag
-Wave (1) of an Impulse
Counting it as wave (1) of an impulse doesn't really make sense due to the previous five-wave decline from the 2.1100 top that preceeded it. So the logical choice would be to count the rally as wave (A) of a zig/zag.
As far as trading this pair goes, I'm long now from 1.6733 with a targets at 1.7100 and 1.7400 trading what I have labeled as wave (5) of an impulse.
I think that there will be a high probability trade to the short side when this rally is finished. If the impulse count turns out to be correct, then a three-wave correction should ensue taking price back down to at least 1.60. There is also a good chance that I'm wrong though, and that the rally is not actually a five-wave advance, but instead just a correction in the larger down-trend. So in that case, taking the short-side would be obviously be a good trade. So basically, with both of those scenarios in mind I'm looking ahead to taking a short-trade when this market shows signs of turning.
Mike3,
most people in here are trading Forex , and maybe the major Stock Indexes
please post a blank blk/wht 1 hr chart and a blank blk/wht 15 min oil chart
do not write anything on them ! ....... just post them empty !
Someone in here will then download your blank charts and repost them with wave counts on them ....
................................. ............................................. .................. ......................... ............ .........
Hi Marketwaves,
Sorry for the late reply.I've been out.here you are 2 charts 15m and H1...I trade FX too but sometimes oil draws beautifull patterns which cant be resisted!
Best,
Here's the longer term chart. I also revise my target down to 76.26 where wave 5 would equal the length of wave 1 (17.54.)
aerocom,Thanks for your reply.to me,it can easily get to 76.26 (I am looking to come up with a count that can take us up to min 97ish, 50%
fibo of the July high)
one thing is how we justify the rule of proportionality between A and C if we consider A-B-C scenario? can C=Ax2.618?
your current 76.26 target will be the 38.2% retracment of July 08 high...
Sorry for the late reply.I've been out.here you are 2 charts 15m and H1...I trade FX too but sometimes oil draws beautifull patterns which cant be resisted!
Best,
Mike
Mike3 ,
these charts you just posted are grey color background ///////
Can you kindly remove them and repost them with white color back ground ?
thanx
--------------------------------- -----------------------------
also , your charts are too large ------
save your charts to your computer desktop and then
go to www.tinypic .com
click on the button that says " Browse "
and up load them using the "17 inch " screen setting
tinypic will resize your chart automatically an give you an " IMG " code link
--------------------------------- ------------------------------- -----------------------------------
after you have done this at tinypic , left click with your mouse on the link
that they gave you that says " IMG link for Message Boards "
then come back in here and post the link that tinypic gave you ,
at the end of the body of the text of your post your post ,,,,,
( bye the way , you can post 2 or more links in one message post )
Please try this ---- it will resize your charts automatically --- go now
PS.
i will not put any wave counts on your charts ......
( i am only here trying to tell you what to do to , so you can get help you have been asking for)
=========================================== ===============
again
the problem why you didn't get a response earlier is that
most in here are trading Forex ,,,,, not Oil !
So please , just post your blank charts Blk/ Wht charts
( with white color background ) very important !
If you post these blank charts and ask the
forum in here to please put a wave count on your blank charts ,
then someone will take up the challenge ,
- and if all goes well you should have a few different wave-counts to choose from
Good luck with which ever chart you decide to use ,,,,,
with white color back ground that I've first uploaded to www.tinypic.com
and then came back in here with the IMG Link and copied the chart link into the body of the text
look at how clear it is ..... ( this was the "17" setting over at tinypic )
===========================================
Now go repost post your 1 hr chart and 15 min charts of OIL
and then write in your post ,
Can some one please put a wave count on this chart ?
you will get some respone ////// I promise
============================================
Last edited by marketwavez2; 08-04-2009 at 07:55 PM.
Since this has been posted as a 4 hour chart already, I thought I would post my 30-min chart. Price action is very corrective in nature and looks to be gearing up for 1 last impulisive wave to complete wave 5 of C. I have a target of 85.60, where wave I and V are equal, but the 1.618 ext lies up another 100 pips at 86.60. This is one of Prechter's "Pretty Pictures"
Speaking of MZ, MONEY MANAGEMENT!!!! Unfortunately you will not get that here. I'm still trying and learning that tool myself but can not offer any input because everyone has there own trading style?(I really hate that comment but I guess its TRUE.
P.S. Post as many charts for comments. Feedback is a must!!! You WANT these geniuses comments, advise, criticism, whatever!!! Beg if you have too, I DO. And what does MT$ stand for?
MT$ = Make The $?
No, I have a feeling it is MT4, which is Metatrader 4, a charting software.
About MM, hot topic here...
It all depends on what kind of trader you are, short term, swing, long term, scalper etc. and how much risk can you stomach?
A lot of people in here are swing traders, they risk 30, 50, 100 pips at the time, hold for couple days to 1 or 2 weeks.
Scalpers risk few pips and trade couple minutes per trade.
Take a percentage of your account that you are comfortable with 5-10%, then the stoploss pips for your trade.
Lets say you have a $1000,- account balance. 5%= $50,- if your stop is at 10 pips, you can have a $5,- lot.
Then take a r/r ratio. This is a rule you make for yourself, but 3:1 is a good ratio because it allows you to win 1 out of 3 trades and still break even. So if you win half your trades, you are doing good.
EW is excellent for this because of its clear defined rules.
So, you are risking $50,- that means you need to be able to make $150,-
With $5,- per pip that is 30 pips.
So, before you pull the trigger on your trade you need good analysis and see an opportunity to win 30 pips with risking 10 pips at $5,- lot, which on a mini account is 5 lots and on a normal account is 0.5 lots.
Please check my blog where I post my trading sheets with this stuff in it.
[QUOTE=Airelon;519185]Over the last 13 years, if it's one thing I've discovered?
Although I guard some of my trades because I don't want my trades "fronted" or "ganged up on"? As far as my methodology? Many people don't want to trade like Dan even when they see it makes me a lot of money. Heck, I'll tell you what it is right now. Seasonality bias + Economic Bias + COT bias. When those biases agree, then look for technical entries based on technical cyclical (time) and price / volume action.
There it is. Out on the internet for everyone to see! Oh no! Seriously though ... People trade, how people trade. They trade their own psychology. This goes far beyond the axiom of "not being able to teach some people to trade". I mean, people may not want to trade that methodology. At all. It drives some people absolutely nuts, because it means many days - I'm not trading.
My personality, and psychology is much different than some people. My personality is I like to line up 3 biases upon one another, and then apply very specific technical tools.
First thing I usually hear is: But with that many biases? You're going to miss a lot of trades.
That really, really bothers some people. It doesn't fit their personality. They hate it when they watch trade, after trade, after trade get away from them when they play the 'coulda' 'woulda' 'shoulda' game. It doesn't bother me at all. It fits my personality.
You can't make anyone trade like you. You can just show them how you put tools together for yourself, and how you developed, and hopefully ... they will be able to do the same for themselves.
Because when it comes to a 'method', there are as many different ways to trade, as there are traders.
And heck, that's all before the art of money management is applied to things ...
---------------- aint that the truth ------ !
Last edited by marketwavez2; 08-04-2009 at 09:23 PM.
MT$ = Make The $?
No, I have a feeling it is MT4, which is Metatrader 4, a charting software.
About MM, hot topic here...
It all depends on what kind of trader you are, short term, swing, long term, scalper etc. and how much risk can you stomach?
A lot of people in here are swing traders, they risk 30, 50, 100 pips at the time, hold for couple days to 1 or 2 weeks.
Scalpers risk few pips and trade couple minutes per trade.
Take a percentage of your account that you are comfortable with 5-10%, then the stoploss pips for your trade.
Lets say you have a $1000,- account balance. 5%= $50,- if your stop is at 10 pips, you can have a $5,- lot.
Then take a r/r ratio. This is a rule you make for yourself, but 3:1 is a good ratio because it allows you to win 1 out of 3 trades and still break even. So if you win half your trades, you are doing good.
EW is excellent for this because of its clear defined rules.
So, you are risking $50,- that means you need to be able to make $150,-
With $5,- per pip that is 30 pips.
So, before you pull the trigger on your trade you need good analysis and see an opportunity to win 30 pips with risking 10 pips at $5,- lot, which on a mini account is 5 lots and on a normal account is 0.5 lots.
Please check my blog where I post my trading sheets with this stuff in it.
Good trading!
Thanks pippin, i need this drilled in my head at least 100 more times. Please, you and others, keep pounding, i'll get it one day(sooner than later I hope). I promise, i'll make you proud.
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Originally Posted by justy10125
Yeah, the zig/zag rally would be my preferred count. If the rise off of the lows is actually an impulse, as I have it labeled in the previous chart, then the only two things it could be is:
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---- Loss 28 pips 
!
