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08-13-2009, 06:54 PM #26236
wise words...the unity and humbleness...
Originally Posted by italm31
Didnt have a new position today and closed my EURUSD short position which I opened 2 days ago with some litttle loss...OUT...waiting...!
lesson of day:
1.To follow the trend untill clear signs of reversal.you always can get in on a pull back.
2. To study about the traders biases...not sure yet but it seem they can VERY dengerous...
Dr. Van Tharp outlines in his "trade your way to financial freedom" 14 biases that affect how to trade a methodology successfuly.
3. WAITING and PATIENCE...stops overtrading.
4.knowing this Elliott forum is a bias.Knowing the EWP gives me a special and unique feeling of confident(or perhaps arrogannce) that sometimes blinds the objectivity...to work out this one...
everyone makes mistake...
Last edited by mike3gdc; 08-13-2009 at 07:41 PM.
08-13-2009, 07:42 PM #26237
Would you care to elaborate on "bias" - basically, what are you saying here? In my view, everyone needs a bias to place a trade, though it should be flexible. In other words, never be married to your position.
Originally Posted by mike3gdc
Secondly, I'm not sure I understand your #4. This forum is full of different views, timeframes, and strategies. I've heard people comment on this before... sometimes there is "groupthink" but in general I call BS here. EW can give you probabilistic certainty through objective analysis, and many of the people here are very savy traders. There is nothing wrong with following them.
The bottom line is this: use good money management with your strategy and you can make money consistently over time, whether you're profitable on 90% of your trades or 10%.
And just a short comment on "trend" - understand that it is dependent upon the time frame you are watching.
Last edited by broyboy; 08-13-2009 at 07:47 PM.
08-13-2009, 08:10 PM #26238
Originally Posted by mike3gdc
In regards to the EURO$, the bias is down. As Ilovepippins' chart shows, the EURO$ just completed wave 5 as an ending diagonal. The down move is a zigzag and wave b will either be shallow or will be deep retracing to the 61.8% of the initial down move. The next wave C will travel to at or near the low of wave 2.
I think in regards to the EURO$ and GBP$, marketwavezs targets are accurate and the EUR$ should be shorted. Fundamentally, the GBP$ is the weakest pair but has more risk then the EURO$ at this point.
Short with stop above 78.6% then be patient.
08-13-2009, 08:26 PM #26239
If you guy's subscribe to the EWI Independent daily newsletter watch the video. At this link are 4 videos where Prechter makes predictions about the markets.
Seen and Heard - Elliott Wave International Press Room
Last edited by aerocom; 08-13-2009 at 08:30 PM.
08-13-2009, 09:36 PM #26240
Please see this video ............. about oscillators vs Elliott Waves
Forbes.com Video Network | Financial Adviser Network: Riding Elliott Waves
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Last edited by marketwavez2; 08-13-2009 at 09:39 PM.
08-13-2009, 10:11 PM #26241
Originally Posted by marketwavez2
Actually, the only indicator he referenced was the 200 day moving average. As for using oscillators in conjunction with EW, it works wonderfully if you know what you're looking for- i.e. divergence btwn the 3rd and 5th wave, stuck in OB/OS during a third wave, or a complete cycle OB to OS after the 1st and 2nd waves. Therefore, if you use them as a guide and not a crutch, they can be highly effective. Moreover, I think it is extremely important for individual traders to use whatever it is that makes them more effective at determining direction.
08-14-2009, 02:05 AM #26242
attempting a small short position here..
not sure if i am not early though.
stop is -21.
Last edited by qsx; 08-14-2009 at 02:10 AM.
08-14-2009, 03:02 AM #26243
Originally Posted by apipintime
I'm a little confused about your meaning of "....or a complete cycle OB to OS after the 1st and 2nd waves", could you kindly elaborate on it?
08-14-2009, 03:49 AM #26244
Please do not follow count. Im just counting hoping for a clue?
But I think it stands for OverBought and OverSold. I'm interested just like you in the elaboration?
Originally Posted by hnbe
Please, pippin comment? Everyone comment please!!!
Last edited by AyoBro; 08-14-2009 at 04:33 AM.
Reason: Still learning. And i know MM takes precendence?
08-14-2009, 07:11 AM #26245
Hi Broyboy,due to lack of my technical knowlage of "bias" in trading,I'm afriad wont be able to elaborate on this however,I got to know a couple of my OWN psychological biases sofar!
Originally Posted by broyboy
such as I trade what I expect NOT what I see.or I go around EW communities to collect evidence to prove my count theory!
or I hear master Prechter is calling the major bottom in DX with this firm conviction,so for me who has respect for this man cos whatever I know from EW is from him so deep within me become assured and reluctant to be MORE objective.
That was Bob Prechter as an example,the tribe leader,I get some similair bias extract off this forum too.ofcaurse this is a my story everyone has different story.
as I mentioned before I am new to all this so I rather to be more of a observer...! the main reason I got out of my short EURUSD! for me NOW it is not about to make some bucks here and there but first to underestand what's going on!
08-14-2009, 07:14 AM #26246
Originally Posted by aerocom
08-14-2009, 07:19 AM #26247
I thinking one more high for C. 78.6 is right back at the trendline (around 4370 area)
08-14-2009, 07:29 AM #26248
I've got a favor to ask of anyone who has their copy of Prechter's EWP book handy...
I'm trying to find out what the relationship between peak volume in wave-5 is compared to that in wave-3. Specifically, I'd like to know if the book says volume in wave-5 must be less than that in wave-3 or that it should/typically be less than the peak volume in wave-3.
I lent my book to a friend who has left and taken it with him to the other side of the world, so obviously I can't look for myself. Any help would be appreciated.
08-14-2009, 07:34 AM #26249
08-14-2009, 07:52 AM #26250
That is correct. Page 76 says that in a normal wave pattern wave 5 has less volume than wave 3.
Originally Posted by justy10125
Exact words are:" Tends to be less..."
There are other interesting notes on volume, such as triangles tend to come down in volume as they progress and turning points are often on low volume.
Outside of Elliott I know that trendlines, support and resistance lines are often broken on low volume.
Anyway, good trading! If you need anything else, let me know!
Last edited by Ilovepippin; 08-14-2009 at 07:55 AM.