here is one link, where Mr. Prechter speaks about the Dollar, why and also for how long is he bullish.
Also of interest are the comments on the web site... See the link here
Now it looks like every Elliotician, including the biggest ones, is dollar bullish
Damn, that is not what i's like to see while holding my long term EUR.USD short position. But what can i do ?
Ravno , not every one .......
Here is Brad's view from last week ........
Originally Posted by brad_1199
Ilya... The USDCHF pair is a very good indicator for where the USD is headed... The charts speak for themselves ---->>
We're looking at some severe and crippling losses to the USD in the coming months and years... Price has been drifting lower in a long term wedge pattern for years and it's far from over...
Last edited by marketwavez2; 08-16-2009 at 08:00 PM.
brads usdchf forecast from another forum here, just would like to share a visible 5 wave drop confirming down trend continuation, any comments welcome.
Ravnos ,
This is also from Brad ......................
Originally Posted by brad_1199
The USDCHF daily chart is about to take a plunge......
Last edited by marketwavez2; 08-16-2009 at 08:21 PM.
Market wave,
Thank you for the reply!
I don't want to mention the website...... OK!
I have been 'virtual trading' for about 4months with my new broker. I have traded stocks for about 10yrs., but started using E.W. theory about 5yrs. ago.
I have attended many webinars, so I am familiar with Money Management, Risk/Reward, etc.
I do have a question though. Is E.W. theory purely accurate with the Forex/Futures markets, or must the system of counting be altered ?
I see a lot of 'Spikes' on my Candles that seem to destroy my count!
That is why I have trouble labeling the counts on these markets.
thanks,
JK.
I think the EuroUSD made a turn. I am waiting for confirmation.
The weekly chart shows a 3-3-5 flat correction from the 1.23 low. Wave 2 very typically retraces 61.8%, which is where we were last week, almost. We now are heading for a price below the 50% retracement. Indicators are turning bearish and there is clear divergence.
The daily chart shows a clear rejection of 4445 level as a double top, important is that the second top, penetrated a little (1pip) deeper. That is significant and a better indication of a double top.
This last move, if a reversal, should come in 5 waves. I am waiting a retrace in form of a wave 2, with a lower high, before I get in.
Here are the charts.
Ilove pippin
This is a very nice chart that you posted
--------------------------------------------------------- ------------------
a few trading days have gone by now
One more low in the DOW is what I'm looking for. I went through the individual component stocks that make up the DOW today, and I see that a few of them are already showing signs of recovery. The two individual stocks that stick out are KFT and KO. These two stocks have both completed five-wave rallies and are setting up for their corrective declines (which will coincide with the broader index moving lower). There is also another stock, MCD, which has just completed a triangle and is awaiting a bullish breakout. And while not a DOW component, the other stock I like to the upside is Ford (F). It has traced out an idealized five-wave rally and is also setting up for a corrective decline.
So the takeaway from all of these bullish stocks is that it looks like the stock market as a whole is in the final stages of it's bear market cycle and is already setting up for the new bull market.
Yes, that is what I was seeing as well. ----tybank, euh I mean, Citigroup is also ready for a recovery.
But, remember, the Dow is most probably in an expanded flat, and for an expanded flat there is no real guideline for where wave C is going to land.
Now, if your count is right, and we are indeed in a wave 4, then I would expect more of a sideways correction since wave 2 was simple ABC.
Now also look at the wave5 of (3) down, looks more like 3 waves, irregular bottom? Is a possibility...
Yes, that is what I was seeing as well. ----tybank, euh I mean, Citigroup is also ready for a recovery.
But, remember, the Dow is most probably in an expanded flat, and for an expanded flat there is no real guideline for where wave C is going to land.
Now, if your count is right, and we are indeed in a wave 4, then I would expect more of a sideways correction since wave 2 was simple ABC.
Now also look at the wave5 of (3) down, looks more like 3 waves, irregular bottom? Is a possibility...
yes , I love pippin
Your chart looks very possible
--------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------
do you have a target level for the wave "B "low in your Dow chart ?
thanx
Last edited by marketwavez2; 08-16-2009 at 08:47 PM.
Your chart looks very possible
--------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------
do you have a target level for the wave "B "low in your Dow chart ?
Yes, that is what I was seeing as well. ----tybank, euh I mean, Citigroup is also ready for a recovery.
But, remember, the Dow is most probably in an expanded flat, and for an expanded flat there is no real guideline for where wave C is going to land.
Now, if your count is right, and we are indeed in a wave 4, then I would expect more of a sideways correction since wave 2 was simple ABC.
Now also look at the wave5 of (3) down, looks more like 3 waves, irregular bottom? Is a possibility...
The reason that wave (5) of (3) down looks like a three-wave decline is because the first part of the decline is likely wave (D) of a triangle. See this chart from a few days ago:
I'd be more inclined to think the upcoming wave (5) decline will be truncated or end in a double-bottom type of scenario, rather than unfold in a triangle or other sideways correction. The reason for thinking truncation/double bottom is the amount of already bullish component stocks in the DOW. The declines on those stocks could be muted and keep the overall DOW from dropping too quickly. This is a typical development though, as fifth waves are always technically weaker than third waves. One reason for the "weaker" fifth wave is simply that some stocks are already done declining in impulsive fashion, and could therefore act as resistance to the overall decline in the DOW keeping it from accelerating to the downside.
The reason that I'm looking for a straightforward drop, either to a new low or truncated or double bottom, rather than a triangle is based on the component stocks of the DOW. The majority of the stocks that are indicating more weakness are all showing that simply one more drop will complete their larger patterns. I could see the triangle scenario perhaps if the patterns of the individual stocks were all different, but that isn't really the case here.
Last edited by justy10125; 08-16-2009 at 10:15 PM.
The reason that wave (5) of (3) down looks like a three-wave decline is because the first part of the decline is likely wave (D) of a triangle. See this chart from a few days ago:
I'd be more inclined to think the upcoming wave (5) decline will be truncated or end in a double-bottom type of scenario, rather than unfold in a triangle or other sideways correction. The reason for thinking truncation/double bottom is the amount of already bullish component stocks in the DOW. The declines on those stocks could be muted and keep the overall DOW from dropping too quickly. This is a typical development though, as fifth waves are always technically weaker than third waves. One reason for the "weaker" fifth wave is simply that some stocks are already done declining in impulsive fashion, and could therefore act as resistance to the overall decline in the DOW keeping it from accelerating to the downside.
The reason that I'm looking for a straightforward drop, either to a new low or truncated or double bottom, is that again, based on the component stocks of the DOW. The majority of the stocks that are indicating more weakness are all showing that simply one more drop will complete their larger patterns. I could see the triangle scenario perhaps if the patterns of the individual stocks were all different, but that isn't really the case here.
The Current Dow looks very much like the Nikkei of 1999.
Last edited by Ilovepippin; 08-16-2009 at 10:24 PM.
Pls see my Elliott wave count for Eur/Aud 30 mins chart..
I had no problem in counting 1,2,3,4,5 impulse waves. But i had some difficulties in counting corrective waves. In my chart i label corrective wave as (a), (b) and (c).
Wave (a) is subwaves of i, ii, iii, iv, v - (5)
Wave (b) is subwaves of a, b, c - (3)
Wave (c) is subwaves of a,b,c - (3)
According to EWP, there are only 4 types of correctives waves. They are
1) Zigzag (subwave - 5,3,5)
2) Flat (subwaves - 3,3,5)
3) Complex (subwaves - 3,3,3)
4) Triangle (subwaves - 3,3,3,3,3)
But in my above chart, correctives are subwaves into 5, 3, 3..
My question, the corrective waves in my chart are not belongs to any of 4 types of correctives wave listed in EWP books. So is it alright to count it the way i counted? If its incorrect, how to count it in other/right way?
please help!!
Originally Posted by JKnPA
BB,
I count 5 waves in wave 'c'................. IMO
* PM sent
JK.
Originally Posted by soso-xx
Hey BB, your chart caught my attention cause I have a LONG order initiated Friday on a different (bullish) count. I took the long because I think we could be in a bullish wave 3/C, your chart is missing a previous first impuslive wave which usually means that we'll see another impulse following.
IF wave (1) is a first impulsive wave then everything else should be clear imo. Of course the market will do what it wants anyway and will prove/disprove this count by tomorrow.
Cheers!
Originally Posted by aerocom
The correction you outlined is only a part of the complete picture. You need to start from an important low or high. You started in the middle of the pattern. Anytime this happens, back up to the next completed wave. My chart is a 1 hour chart but you see the pattern is unfolding as a 3-3-5.
Good question.
Good Luck.
Thanks all for helping me with my count. I missed to see the big picture and its clear now.
Yes, that is what I was seeing as well. ----tybank, euh I mean, Citigroup is also ready for a recovery.
But, remember, the Dow is most probably in an expanded flat, and for an expanded flat there is no real guideline for where wave C is going to land.
Now, if your count is right, and we are indeed in a wave 4, then I would expect more of a sideways correction since wave 2 was simple ABC.
Now also look at the wave5 of (3) down, looks more like 3 waves, irregular bottom? Is a possibility...
yes , I love pippin
Your chart looks very possible
--------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------
do you have a target level for the wave "B "low in your Dow chart ?
Sure, here's what I'm looking for on the DOW long-term. The main reason I think this is a flat is because of what I have labeled as wave (B). That wave counts best as a three-wave rally (I see it as a 15 wave rally, which is corrective). Plus, if you look at the component stocks of the DOW you'll see that several of those did not follow the DOW itself to new highs in the 2002 - 2007 rally, but instead made clear-cut three-wave rallies to normal retracement levels of the 2000 - 2002 decline.
Interesting count Justy. Thanks for making it. I can certainly see it now. I think I will adopt this count as the monthly chart clearly shows this to be a 4rth wave and we are going into 5 now. Another question. What do you think of a possible extended wave 5th wave. Maximum extended 5ths go as long as waves 1 through 3 combined...maybe longer. In this case, that would be a fall of 7800 points. Presuming a high is in, were looking at the Dow at 1500 level. Do you think this is possible in this case since emotions are running high and there is SO MUCH at stake...401ks, the economy,...ect.
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Originally Posted by ravno 
