Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

Originally Posted by Ilovepippin

Okay, because you labelled A as a wave 2.
But now we can say that this is most likely a 3-3-5 correction. I am still not convinced that this wave C is an impulse though. It counts better as a double zigzag and that would still leave room to the upside.
That would also hold well with my short term view on the Dow, I expect that to go to at least 10.000. Then sentiment will be at a high and there will be room for downside again.

I think the best way to count that move is as a completed five. The same move in the USD Index (Inverse, obviously) is also showing a clear five-waves.

Sentiment is already high. There is well over 90% bulls on EURO and the same for bears on USD.

Kaori, while not EW..there is a chart pattern there: a falling wedge. It is a bullish pattern that eventually usually trades back up towards the top of the pattern.

So I've traced out some traditional outcomes that are common with this pattern.

See if that helps.

Thank for your comments, yes - I totally agree and white lines are real bullish wedge and upside scenario pinpoints even much higher, it´s the same bullish EW pattern as eur-jpy had (propably gbp-jpy and aud-jpy had the same) but I was wondering is the larger diagonal possible also marked by yellow lines or is it just regular trendline resistance.

Originally Posted by kaori

Kaori, while not EW..there is a chart pattern there: a falling wedge. It is a bullish pattern that eventually usually trades back up towards the top of the pattern.

So I've traced out some traditional outcomes that are common with this pattern.

See if that helps.

Thank for your comments, yes - I totally agree and white lines are real bullish wedge and upside scenario pinpoints even much higher, it´s the same bullish EW pattern as eur-jpy had (propably gbp-jpy and aud-jpy had the same) but I was wondering is the larger diagonal possible also marked by yellow lines or is it just regular trendline resistance.

Kaori, here's how I'd draw the trend line on the hourly USD/JPY chart.

EUR/JPY just broke a long sideways range to the upside and should easily hit somewhere in the area of 137.50-138.50.

ok, since i still cannot decide where a safe close stop is, and i will probably not be around on monday to manage it, i am setting a trailing stop, which moves to b/e when price drops to a new low, which seems very likely to me, as it stands right now.
until then the stop rests at -130 pips, which is.. unpleasant.

see ya next week.

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

Kaori, here's how I'd draw the trend line on the hourly USD/JPY chart.

EUR/JPY just broke a long sideways range to the upside and should easily hit somewhere in the area of 137.50-138.50.

That breakout on your USD/JPY chart unfolded as a five-wave rally, which implies that prices are likely headed higher.

Originally Posted by justy10125

That breakout on your USD/JPY chart unfolded as a five-wave rally, which implies that prices are likely headed higher.

Yeah, Justy...I appreciate you sending that chart.

Yeah, I agree with that. It may pull back towards its trend line first but ultimately, I'm looking for a place to go long now too.

Excellent.

justy, do you have wave count for gold and crude oil?

EUR/JPY just broke a long sideways range to the upside and should easily hit somewhere in the area of 137.50-138.50

W3 of W5 propably leads there, W5 of W5 to the 141.00 where daily 50% retracement locates in the case this is very large double zigzag Y wave final ipulse. Your trendlines looks definetely better, smaller timeframe corrective backtest&pullback propably going on.

Well, have a good weekend all - I suppose most of the fun from today is now over...

Originally Posted by kaori

EUR/JPY just broke a long sideways range to the upside and should easily hit somewhere in the area of 137.50-138.50

W3 of W5 propably leads there, W5 of W5 to the 141.00 where daily 50% retracement locates in the case this is very large double zigzag Y wave final ipulse. Your trendlines looks definetely better, smaller timeframe corrective backtest&pullback propably going on.

Well, have a good weekend all - I suppose most of the fun from today is now over...

Kaori, have a good weekend. Good chatting and trading with you this week. See you next week.

You will only see once you understand....

Originally Posted by marketwavez2

its ok ..... no need to explain

just try to put your targets on most of your charts

Just indicate your target on the original chart itself ,
so there can be no question in the future as to what happened

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after deciding on a wave-count ,
people are to decide on their own Entry and Protective stops

People are to manage the individual trade set-ups that they decide to take on thier own

marketwavez, i asked you if you get my point...
looks like you aren't...

once again.
i do put the targets on charts, whenever i think it's worth doing so.
then, most of the times, i do not do it on purpose (see one of my previous post for detailed explanations).

if you personally like to put some targets on all your setups, fine, but do not demand everyone to follow your style.
actually, by limiting oneself to the peredefined targets, one is likely to miss huge movements.
but that is up to everyone...

Originally Posted by Ilovepippin

You will only see once you understand....

Yeah, looks like we should get some more upside...about where your 2) is.

Nice, thanks for posting!

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

Yeah, looks like we should get some more upside...about where your 2) is.

Nice, thanks for posting!

The 78.6% resistance is very strong judging by the shooting star candle.

Originally Posted by Ilovepippin

You will only see once you understand....

Hi, Pippin. Is this one of the possible or your preferred count? Or, to borrow from the playbooks of GS and the likes, your 'conviction count recommendation'?

Combined view on EUR.USD and USD.CHF...