Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

Well, Elliott Waves go hand in hand with investors sentiment and I have to tell everyone here about today's sentiment.

I was at an investors gathering yesterday organized by the local bank. Lots of people there looking to go back into the market. A lot of very optimistic speakers all talking about how the markets have had its biggest gain within 6 months since a decade.
The message was: "Now is the time to go back, and keep your money in the market no matter what happens."

Combined with the headlines and a very confident Bernanke and Obama, who even left on vacation saying "the recession is over" it tells me that sentiment is at a high and a top is in place or close to being in place.

And if it were not enough and my suspicion wasn't yet confirmed, today EWI came out with a special report warning about a top in the Dow.
(go read at elliottwave.com)

If true we should see substantial rallies in the USD (bull) and the Yen (bull), and the SP500, DJ and Oil should give back there gains. Gold and Silver rallies to the down side (bear).
I see still a little room for some gains and timewise we are talking at least a couple of weeks.

Remember, EW is not only about counting waves, it is primarily plotting out investors sentiment. Something illustrated to me yesterday by one of the speakers who showed a graph of a stock that one year did very well, 55% gains, and the next year dropped like a rock. He was preaching a "middle of the road" approach which did well for a lot of people.
One of the best approaches however, was the "contrarian" approach. Well, as ellioticians we are contrarians and we know that pays well.
For me now is the time to be a contrarian, although I hope I am wrong.

Originally Posted by GADGET MAN

couldn't tell u precisely, probably 2wks b4 Brad left, not good with dates...4 months maybe. been studyin as well, have had FXCM newbies course, been trade-learnin 4 over 2yrs(too much time?) dunno maybe a perfectionist or something.

could look @ ma question again, tnx

Brad didnt leave, he is still here ........he just put his posts in another thread

Brad didn't go anywhere
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Originally Posted by Ilovepippin

For me now is the time to be a contrarian, although I hope I am wrong.

Well, thats what I allways try to work out.
How would you understand this chart? its a 2 week chart for the last upleg and it while it seems to point north, it lacks something in moment..... could you please read it for me?

Originally Posted by marketwavez2

Brad didnt leave, he is still here ........he just put his posts in another thread

Brad didn't go anywhere
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k, am sorry i ever mentioned that, could you please try answer my questions.

Originally Posted by qsx

i`ve been thinking about those type of comments, and i have to say..

i find it rather easy to take (any amount of) pips out of the market. however, what i do find hard is to keep those constant (small) losses in control, and i think that is something every trader has to focus on more then seriously.

you congratulate me for the gain, but you do not express your regret from my 20 pip loss today.

there is alot to work on; for instance my original targets from yesterday would have been hit for a greater gain, same as the targets earlier this week, although i left there with a 69 pip gain (instead of 200+) due to a 1minute unclosed gap (cant say i am unhappy though).

so no matter the skillz, one has to focus as well on the psychological and technical side of trading; you have to trust your analysis, and your risk management.
my account started really growing when i started to be afraid to pull the trigger... when i was scared and focusing on losing; and those comments that you put in are totally in the different direction..

so, thanks again, friends, i appreciate it, but, lets focus on the negatives

having said that, thats all from me this week.. have a good rest during the weekend.

hi, qsx !
surely i want to support you whenever you make good profit...
and as it looks, you are smart enough to beat yourself for all the mistakes.

since the moment, one starts recognizing that though it's not possible to control the things happening around, but one is completely responsible for everything what happens to him (inside), well, one is on the right way...

so, congratulate you once again!

Originally Posted by Arnaldo

Well, thats what I allways try to work out.
How would you understand this chart? its a 2 week chart for the last upleg and it while it seems to point north, it lacks something in moment..... could you please read it for me?

Arnaldo, that is nice chart, indeed...

However, you would probably like to check the bigger picture in order to figure out, why is it possible for EUR.USD to drop now (or very soon)

Originally Posted by GADGET MAN

Hi, been watching from the side line for quite a while (been long Brad left, init?). been learning, thanks to all of you, amazing pipl, pls what do u make of this am-not-sure "diamond top formation". on EUR/USD DAILY.

have few questions pls.

read a bit on diamond formation: high volume, 200 SMA almost running flat n 50 SMA above. the question..........

1. is diamond formation basically a BULLISH setup.
2. or end of down trend only.
3. is my diamond formation call valid.

Diamond Pattern indicates consolidation ----- Simply put
Diamond patterns are unique , and are very rarely found


Diamond Tops are found at a Market Top

Diamond Bottoms are found at a Market Bottom

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Personally ,,, I like to find them at or near an End of Wave 5

( but they can be found anywhere )

Here 3 charts from earlier this year

Originally Posted by marketwavez2

Diamond Pattern indicates consolidation ----- simply put
Diamond patterns are unique , and are very rarely found


Diamond Tops are found at Market Top

Diamond Bottoms are found at a Market Top

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Personally ,,, I like to find them at or near an End of Wave 5

but they can be found anywhere

here 2 charts for last year

marketwavez2, Yes, they are rare. I agree. You bring up a great point about preferring them being at the end of wave 5.

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

marketwavez2, Yes, they are rare. I agree. You bring up a great point about preferring them being at the end of wave 5.

3 years of trading Forex has taught me this ,,,,,,,,,,
but I studied them originally hanging out in the library .....

Hi guys,

Posted an update on eurusd on my blog. It's too large for here..
If there is a way to post in HTML here, let me know.

Originally Posted by marketwavez2

3 years of trading Forex has taught me this ,,,,,,,,,,
but I studied them originally hanging out in the library .....

By the way, how long have you been a student of Elliott Wave? Just curious. Because you can tell you've really studied it a lot.

Originally Posted by Ilovepippin

Hi guys,

Posted an update on eurusd on my blog. It's too large for here..
If there is a way to post in HTML here, let me know.

Ilovepippin, It's nice to see that you do daily and weekly chart counts too.

So if there's a truncated 5th on the hourly....do you have a projection as to where the corrective "a" wave may start?

Because I assume after the a-b-c correction, we'll start working our way up to the daily chart wave 5 correct? Did I understand that right?

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

By the way, how long have you been a student of Elliott Wave? Just curious. Because you can tell you've really studied it a lot.

------ I started learning the waves and reading about the waves in 2002 ,and, 2003
and applied it to Commodity Futures and Indexes only ........ originally

Started with Forex in early 2006

Trading the metals markets , mainly Silver and Copper has taught me much about volatility ,,,,,

Italm had said a 1yr ago in here that I have an Eagle's eye

that was some compliment : .... It has kept me confident

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here is a look at Cotton from my earlier days

( the chart indicates an Expanding Triangle ,,,,,, occurring at Multi-Year lows )

all charts were hand drawn , pencil , pen and
the scanned into a file back in those days

Originally Posted by marketwavez2

------ I started learning the waves and
reading about the waves in 2002 ,and, 2003
and applied it to Commodity Futures and Indexes originally

Italm had said a 1yr ago in here that I have an Eagle's eye

that was some compliment : .... It has kept me confident

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here is a look at cotton from my earlier days

all charts were hand drwn , pencil , pen and
the scanned into a file back in those days

marketwavez, that's really cool (the text and chart, both). Yeah, I originally read after guys that had to do technical analysis on graph paper before computers did this.

They had to physically run the forumulas for indictors and then draw them on their charts, etc. Wow! We take it for granted these days that the indicators are formulated and plotted on the charts for us.

Yeah, you can tell you put a lot of work into your Elliott Wave analysis. That's noble.

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

marketwavez, that's really cool (the text and chart, both). Yeah, I originally read after guys that had to do technical analysis on graph paper before computers did this.

They had to physically run the forumulas for indictors and then draw them on their charts, etc. Wow! We take it for granted these days that the indicators are formulated and plotted on the charts for us.

Yeah, you can tell you put a lot of work into your Elliott Wave analysis. That's noble.

I didnt learn anything from being in a forum

......... pryor to 2006
most people would draw their charts by hand ,.....

So , thats how I learned all the chart patterns ( by doing it manually by hand )

is f tyou are around 16 years in this business like you say you are .....
then you must know some traders who use Elliott Waves manually

thts how you really learn this stuff is when you do it manually

but the botom line is you have to keep files with your charts ,
so you can go back and study them

Nothing is going to teach you more than reviewing your own charts

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