Great analysis.!! .. A lot of Fundy info coming out on GBP later in the week as you know.. I'm reckoning by Friday we could see 149-148 level.. Is this your interpretation too, timewise?
Thanks..
Thanks, Mike
Here is an excerpt from a newsleter I received on the weekend:
``policy paths by the Fed and the Bank of England are squarely negative for the pound against the dollar. And that's precisely why the pound has taken its lumps over the past month, down 4 percent against the dollar from its high in August.
Don't forget, the British pound was punished when risk aversion swept through financial markets and has benefited as risk appetite returned. So adding the influence from divergent monetary policy paths to the "high" uncertainty surrounding global economic recoveries creates two negative drags for the British pound.
All of this puts the British pound in a position of weakness and offers currency traders an ideal profit opportunity.``
Thanks, Mike
Here is an excerpt from a newsleter I received on the weekend:
``policy paths by the Fed and the Bank of England are squarely negative for the pound against the dollar. And that's precisely why the pound has taken its lumps over the past month, down 4 percent against the dollar from its high in August.
Don't forget, the British pound was punished when risk aversion swept through financial markets and has benefited as risk appetite returned. So adding the influence from divergent monetary policy paths to the "high" uncertainty surrounding global economic recoveries creates two negative drags for the British pound.
All of this puts the British pound in a position of weakness and offers currency traders an ideal profit opportunity.``
Hi Mike,
Thanks very much for that.. Food for thought, indeed..!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I 'm having a hard time believing that you are ever " lost " as you are saying
Lost in very short time frame..... in GBP we should be in a small correction that turned in an impulsive 5 that ended at 1,645... and although I can assume it as a double top, I see some market changes happening right now... its the first day with a relatively heavy trading after summer holidays.. and only this makes a difference...
ok, we already over 1,646 heading to to 165/166 range...
Lost in very short time frame..... in GBP we should be in a small correction that turned in an impulsive 5 that ended at 1,645... and although I can assume it as a double top, I see some market changes happening right now... its the first day with a relatively heavy trading after summer holidays.. and only this makes a difference...
ok, we already over 1,646 heading to to 165/166 range...
Ok , Can you please post your chart showing all this ?
I think that the picture starts to be better to understand now...
the chart below is a 60 min GBPUSD chart
the GREEN support line started on Nov/3 and is the main bull trend (until now)
This morning I expected the market to move from around 164 down to this line again and since it didnt it confused me until I understood the whole picture again
at this very moment we could have different outcomes from the current price (1,656):
a - an continuing wave 3 (with correction waves) that could climb until 1,665 and thus triggering a number of stops that should exist at 1,66 and eventually test the high at 1,7036 perhaps till Friday
b - an exhausting wave 3 that stops ahead of 1,66 and is this case all this move (in blue) could be labeled a correction of a new established down trend
RSI reading is over 75 for a couple of hours, sending a message that the option "b" is most likely
Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Forex Capital Markets LLC. will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
English
Español
Français
中文
Deutsch
Italiano
العربية
Sverige
Ελληνικά
Originally Posted by Mike in Japan
Reply With Quote
Food for thought, indeed..! 
......... !
