Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

Originally Posted by apipintime

Hey Aerocom,

Your count on oil has inspired this count for Cable. We are in what appears to be a wave iv of 5 of C on the Dollar index, so I am expecting one final surge in everything against the dollar, starting next week. Here is my latest count for Cable, I am going to position long against the 1.6112 low (just in case this count is correct) as the risk to reward is just too good to pass up. Target will be 1.7330 and 1.75.

pippin, what is it in your wave 3 (triangle at the end) ?

Originally Posted by apipintime

Hey Aerocom,

Your count on oil has inspired this count for Cable. We are in what appears to be a wave iv of 5 of C on the Dollar index, so I am expecting one final surge in everything against the dollar, starting next week. Here is my latest count for Cable, I am going to position long against the 1.6112 low (just in case this count is correct) as the risk to reward is just too good to pass up. Target will be 1.7330 and 1.75.

apipintime, yeah looks like ultimately the head & shoulders pattern could break the neckline and head south. The MACD sure is hinting in that direction already.

We've also likely got a serious correction coming in stocks. If that happens, it could weigh down on the GBP/USD too.

USDJPY going thru a wave 4 correction now.
The nature of the correction not completely clear, but it looks at the moment that it might be a compex one, involving a zig zag in wave A, triangle in wave B and an impulse wave C.

I believe wave E of the triangle is complete. We are finding support at the 78.6 of D and within wave E, the zigzag has A=C. Long against 1.6112

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

apipintime, yeah looks like ultimately the head & shoulders pattern could break the neckline and head south. The MACD sure is hinting in that direction already.

We've also likely got a serious correction coming in stocks. If that happens, it could weigh down on the GBP/USD too.

Hey Sean,

I don't believe that H&S will play out. I think we have just completed a Wave 4 triangle and are headed to the 50% fib at 1.7330. I am long against 1.6112 as the risk to reward is just to good to pass up. We should see a massive surge out of this triangle, which is consisten with wave v of 5 of C starting on the dollar index and subsequent breakout in Oil. Considering triangles are terminal patterns, I will be shorting massively upon conclusion of this up move.

Originally Posted by ravno

pippin, what is it in your wave 3 (triangle at the end) ?

Hey Ravno,

That is a wave iv of 3 triangle with a truncated surge to complete wave 3 of C.

Originally Posted by VINCY BALBOA

Hello K...

are you there..

here is Geometric Chart ..

what is your Opinion


Attachment 37288.

2.618%

Here is a great retirement tip:
Wait for oil to go down the drain, then buy it and wait for it to his $500,- a barrel. Happy retirement.

Here is the breakdown of my position. The apex of the triangle is pointing to Oct 14, 2009 for a potential time frame for the conclusion of this trade. Also, a common Wave 5 target is to take a Fib Expansion of 1-3 from the low of 4. The most common Expansion tarrget is the 38.2% followed by the 61.8% and then 100%. It is interesting to note that, the FE 38.2% lines up perfectly with the 50% fib from the 2.11 top @ 1.7330 area, so this is my preferred target.

CABLE...

Originally Posted by VINCY BALBOA

CABLE...

Hey Vincy,

Todays low would have a perfect A=C ratio.

eur/usd

Originally Posted by apipintime

Hey Vincy,

Todays low would have a perfect A=C ratio.

hey Appint..



The Usd/jpy and Gbp/usd – Opposite Correlated with both On them about -67.1 hour..

And In Hour Chart I have seen in Price Overlay ..1.62927 and 91.111 .. They Both Clash on Price Over lay. the Result was Cable Climb Up About 1.629 to 1.6365…

On The Fhi of 161.8%...

If you see in your Overlay Chart with Both Pair.. My 2.618% ratio is making Double Bottom of Usd/jpy With basis Of Corelation of Gbp/usd..


May be you Confused..but works very well..

May be it will help you

Whether you're new or experienced Elliott wave user, you know that it's easy to follow professional wave counts in market charts. It's doing them on your own -- especially in real time, while you're trading -- that can be a challenge. Yet learning Elliott is well worth it. Why?

For answers, let's turn to someone with 15+ years of experience in wave analysis and trading -- Jeffrey Kennedy, editor of Elliott Wave International's Daily and Monthly Futures Junctures and one of EWI's top instructors. (Jeffrey teaches at EWI's Intensive LIVE Trading Course World Tour.)

The following is adapted from Jeffrey's popular 2-volume Trader's Classroom collection.

Elliott Wave Benefit #1: It identifies the trend.
Elliott wave analysis is based on two types of wave development: impulsive and corrective. Impulse waves are five-wave moves (labeled 1-2-3-4-5) that identify the direction of the larger trend. In other words, a five-wave advance tells you the trend as up and a five-wave decline tells you it's down. As traders, we always want to trade in the direction of the trend. We want the wind at our backs: That is the path of least resistance. For example, the probability of success is much greater if you are long a stock when all major indexes are also rallying.

Benefit #2: Elliott wave analysis identifies countertrend moves within the trend.
Corrective waves are simply a response to the preceding impulse wave; corrections always move against the trend. They typically subdivide into three waves (A-B-C) and give us, the traders, an opportunity to position our trades in the direction of the market's larger trend.

Benefit #3: Elliott wave analysis identifies upcoming changes in trend.
Elliott waves are fractal -- i.e., self-repeating on all degrees of trend. This enables you to identify the maturity of the trend. For example, if prices are advancing in wave 5 of a larger five-wave advance, and wave 5 is close to completed its smaller 5-wave impulse -- as a trader, you know that this is not the time to be adding to long positions. Instead, it's time to think about money management: maybe take some profit or at least raise your protective stop.

Benefit #4: Elliott wave analysis confirms the resumption of the trend.
Corrections typically unfold in three waves (labeled A-B-C). When wave C exceeds the extreme of wave B, thus confirming the pattern as a three-wave structure, it implies that the larger trend has resumed.

Benefit #5: Elliott wave analysis provides high probability price targets.
When R.N. Elliott wrote Nature’s Law, he specifically stated that the Fibonacci sequence was the mathematical basis for the Wave Principle. And as time has proven, he was right. Elliott waves, both impulses and corrections, adhere to specific Fibonacci proportions.

Benefit #6: Elliott wave analysis provides specific points of ruin.
Where are you wrong? This seems to be the eternal question for traders. And once again, Elliott wave analysis provides us with the answer via the Three Rules of Elliott:

Rule #1: Wave 2 can never retrace more than 100% of wave 1.
Rule #2: Wave 4 may never end in the price territory of wave 1.
Rule #3: Out of the three impulse waves 1, 3 and 5, wave 3 can never be the shortest.

Bottom line, wave analysis is not a crystal ball, but it will help you accomplish three crucial goals: Identify the trend, stay with it, and get out when the trend is likely over.

Originally Posted by apipintime

Hey Aerocom,

Your count on oil has inspired this count for Cable. We are in what appears to be a wave iv of 5 of C on the Dollar index, so I am expecting one final surge in everything against the dollar, starting next week. Here is my latest count for Cable, I am going to position long against the 1.6112 low (just in case this count is correct) as the risk to reward is just too good to pass up. Target will be 1.7330 and 1.75.

Apipintime;

If my analysis was the same as yours, I would be jumping in GBP$ long also. However, it is not, I agree with Big Mike on this one and I am heavily short with stops in the money on all. I have a target of C=A at 1.5760.

In the longer term, I am playing the daily H&S pattern with a target of 1.4944. I will adding to may short positions on any bounce.

Good Luck.