Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

Well looks like the Euro$ is going to make me wait until Tue for my rewards. C=A=1.4610

Have a good weekend.

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by aerocom

Well looks like the Euro$ is going to make me wait until Tue for my rewards. C=A=1.4610

Have a good weekend.

Good Luck.

This is , what I see.
One more push higher needed.
Target 1.51

At this stage I wouldn't trade it; too close to the top.
Might be a truncation and the price might not reach quite that high.
It will give you a warm feeling of correct count, but you might lose money.

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Happy Weekend

Originally Posted by Big Mike

This is , what I see.
One more push higher needed.
Target 1.51

At this stage I wouldn't trade it; too close to the top.
Might be a truncation and the price might not reach quite that high.
It will give you a warm feeling of correct count, but you might lose money.

Still convinced that this is some sort of ending triangle.
Relabeled my chart for a bullish outlook. Price could go into 4500 area, but then one more surge. Would fit very nicely with most indicies.
Last week I tried a couple of times to pick a top. Not a good idea people.
I managed to come out of the week with a slight profit on a huge move of the GBPCHF, eurodollar cost me a lot of pips
Wait for 5 waves down and 3 waves up.

Originally Posted by Ilovepippin

Still convinced that this is some sort of ending triangle.
Relabeled my chart for a bullish outlook. Price could go into 4500 area, but then one more surge. Would fit very nicely with most indicies.
Last week I tried a couple of times to pick a top. Not a good idea people.
eurodollar cost me a lot of pips
Wait for 5 waves down and 3 waves up.

Good idea.
I can only reaffirm that I learned the same lesson more than once. Expensive education, I admit. But, hey, it is called EXPERIENCE.
You must get burnt few times to learn from your own mistakes.

On a more cheerful note, I expect a FAST AND FURIOUS AND DEEP crash of the EURUSD after this "farce" is finished.

I can't agree more, I just want to add something, this crash is around the corner, I believe the max level for the Euro is 1.4850 and then downnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn.
Good Luck all.

Originally Posted by Big Mike

Good idea.
I can only reaffirm that I learned the same lesson more than once. Expensive education, I admit. But, hey, it is called EXPERIENCE.
You must get burnt few times to learn from your own mistakes.

On a more cheerful note, I expect a FAST AND FURIOUS AND DEEP crash of the EURUSD after this "farce" is finished.

Originally Posted by Ilovepippin

Still convinced that this is some sort of ending triangle.
Relabeled my chart for a bullish outlook. Price could go into 4500 area, but then one more surge. .

Originally Posted by Big Mike

On a more cheerful note, I expect a FAST AND FURIOUS AND DEEP crash of the EURUSD after this "farce" is finished.

Originally Posted by welly68

I can't agree more, I just want to add something, this crash is around the corner, I believe the max level for the Euro is 1.4850 and then downnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn.
Good Luck all.

Hi Guys,

I posted an ultra bearish usdchf last week.here it is again with an EURUSD ultra bullish count.can anyone rule out this possibility or think my counts are breaking some EW rules or do not make sense?











I've been following kiwi last week and I think EURUSD is following it and is heading down to make C...

Originally Posted by mike3gdc

Hi Guys,


I've been following kiwi last week and I think EURUSD is following it and is heading down to make a C

Mike;
Euro and Kiwi are on a similar path, but for two entirely different reasons. So, look at each one in a separate light.
Euro is still going up, and so is Kiwi, but do not draw any parallels. It is a pure coincidence.
Once a big crash in commodities comes, and it is just around the corner, kiwi will suffer tremendously.

I do not buy into your ultra bullish EURUSD scenario, I am sorry.
Rather unlikely.
The USD Index should turn a round very soon; in fact i expect this week.

I am flat any USD related pairs, too close to the intermediate extreme.
I am just waiting for the new trend.

Originally Posted by Big Mike

Mike;
Euro and Kiwi are on a similar path, but for two entirely different reasons. So, look at each one in a separate light.
Euro is still going up, and so is Kiwi, but do not draw any parallels. It is a pure coincidence.
Once a big crash in commodities comes, and it is just around the corner, kiwi will suffer tremendously.

I do not buy into your ultra bullish EURUSD scenario, I am sorry.
Rather unlikely.
The USD Index should turn a round very soon; in fact i expect this week.

I am flat any USD related pairs, too close to the intermediate extreme.
I am just waiting for the new trend.

Right,good one on kiwi...thanks for that.I took very short term comparison though.

Reg to EURUSD,for me,your reason obviously is'nt that convincing.you reject that because of the expectations we've built up over EURUSD OR the perceptions or biases traditionally we have in the Elliott Wave community?? the world outside of EW see the dollar death in the near future and we Elliottician take a contrarian stand for the sake of being opposite the crowd??
how about if the mass is right this time?
I want to put "feelings" and biases aside and give it a cold and sore consideration and talk EW to see if we can rule out those counts?

Obviously,there will be some correction soon for 4-5 weeks,maybe to around 1.3700.then uptrend resumes...

Mike for the EURUSD your ii could be A and your iii B. B would therefore be a zig-zag.
Current price action would put us in wave C; your C would be a of C and wave 3 top would be b of C, then we should move lower in c of C.

Originally Posted by mike3gdc

Hi Guys,

I posted an ultra bearish usdchf last week.here it is again with an EURUSD ultra bullish count.can anyone rule out this possibility or think my counts are breaking some EW rules or do not make sense?










I've been following kiwi last week and I think EURUSD is following it and is heading down to make C...

Mike,
I have edited your chart to show what I am trying to say.

Just to share some thoughts...

Click on picture to see it in full size.

Originally Posted by Ilovepippin

Still convinced that this is some sort of ending triangle.
Relabeled my chart for a bullish outlook. Price could go into 4500 area, but then one more surge. Would fit very nicely with most indicies.
Last week I tried a couple of times to pick a top. Not a good idea people.
I managed to come out of the week with a slight profit on a huge move of the GBPCHF, eurodollar cost me a lot of pips
Wait for 5 waves down and 3 waves up.

Well, I hate you lost on the Euro$. In trading as in most affairs of life there are 2 emotions that must be held in check, FEAR and GREED.

When trading with the wave principle, you will have loses. You have to figure out why and correct the problem, remembering that it is all bout probabilities. In my view the overriding target is 5=1 which would dictate that you be bullish to 1.5031 or so.

Next wave 5 appears to be unfolding in an expanding diagonal. This is a rare pattern and there is no safe way to trade the pattern. The best thing to do is wait unless, you are going to swing. In this case you could rely on the the techniques espoused by Robert Miner and Jeffrey Kennedy along with those of Elliott. Here, you would rely on the the following wave relationships c=a, c=(1.618*a) and the inverse fib relationships 1.382 and 2 with 2 being the most likely to occur if 1.382 is exceeded.

In our case wave 3 is longer than wave 1 and related by 1.31* wave 1. Since this is potentially an expanding diagonal wave 5 will be longer than wave 3. If we explore possibilities for wave 5 targets, we get inverse 2 * wave 4 added to the low of wave 4 = 1.4856 and 1.618% of wave 3 = 1.5051.

As wave 5 unfolds, we can use c=a of 5 and the likely 1.618% relationship to arrive at a target of 1.4779 and the inverse 2 * b of 5 to arrive at 1.4648.

Within wave 5, since wave a subdivided into 3, we can apply the guideline of alternation and expect wave c to subdivide into 5 waves which it did. the inverse relationship applied to wave 4 of 3, would give us a likely target of 1.4759 as a wave 5 target and 1.618 of wave i of v of 5 added to wave 2 would produce a likely target of 1.4795 for wave 5.

All of the options for a top produce a target between 4650 and 5050 for a range of 400 pips. There were several options for short term swing trades along the way in both directions. The best long term option is always in the direction of the trend.

Since wave 5 appears to have ended in an ending diagonal, a strategy would be to short when the price crosses below the upper trend line with risk at 4767. Care should still be observed since several Elliott and fib guidelines place the final price above 1.50, it is likely that a new high will be made. It could be that the first corrective wave will be an irregular flat.

I am in the meantime still looking for a target below 1.4630 and shorted again 2 equal positions. However, if we don't get the move I expect, I have lowered my stop to the previous high. Like you, I more than made up for my Euro$ decline through shorts in both the GBP$ and the GBPCHF.

Good Luck.

Mike;

The areas I questioned them myself...

I am just playing with it!

Originally Posted by pipmyster

Mike,
I have edited your chart to show what I am trying to say.

thanks man,I like your giant ABC! my platform wont give me EURUSD prior to April 1989...can you please post a chart As far back as you possibily have! i'd like to see where your A is coming from.
a massive ABC correction OR an expanded flat could be the case.

cheers