Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

EWI has been calling for a top for a while now. It was trading in the "ideal" range for a fall a couple days ago.

Europe still has some upswing in their stocks, but there the markets went down as well.

For NFP tomorrow I am flat. EURUSD can go either way.
I am going to look for an opportunity now.

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

Yeah, 10k on the Dow has been widely watched.

Hi Sean,

I think Pretcher already called a top back in august?

Here's the video, hope it helps.

Time To Switch to Cash: Elliott Wave's Robert Prechter - Investor Agenda with Maria Bartiromo - CNBC.com

Originally Posted by tank

Hi Sean,

I think Pretcher already called a top back in august?

Here's the video, hope it helps.

Time To Switch to Cash: Elliott Wave's Robert Prechter - Investor Agenda with Maria Bartiromo - CNBC.com

Well, the Dow maybe at a top but it is hard to believe the EURUSD is.
This is not typical wave 3 behaviour and also, the recent move up is a wave b, not a wave 2, because of its character. 2 waves usually end on low volume, this one had a volume peak, which is characteristic for a wave b.

Wave C however is still not finished, it might drop to 1.44 area, but as of now it has a hard time penetrating its previous trend channel.

Originally Posted by Bignatx

Hey Mike are you assuming the current top is in and we are starting wave 3? Thank you

Here is the same chart again; this time in smaller time frame.

Originally Posted by Ilovepippin

Well, the Dow maybe at a top but it is hard to believe the EURUSD is.
This is not typical wave 3 behaviour and also, the recent move up is a wave b, not a wave 2, because of its character. 2 waves usually end on low volume, this one had a volume peak, which is characteristic for a wave b.

Wave C however is still not finished, it might drop to 1.44 area, but as of now it has a hard time penetrating its previous trend channel.

And We have almost the opposite picture for the Dollar index. Another rising wedge against a falling MACD.


30 Min Chart

Originally Posted by Ilovepippin

Well, the Dow maybe at a top but it is hard to believe the EURUSD is.
This is not typical wave 3 behaviour and also, the recent move up is a wave b, not a wave 2, because of its character. 2 waves usually end on low volume, this one had a volume peak, which is characteristic for a wave b.

Wave C however is still not finished, it might drop to 1.44 area, but as of now it has a hard time penetrating its previous trend channel.

Here is my take on EURUSD.
Since wave 1 was a leading diagonal, we should see a clear 5 wave structure decline bearish impulse wave.
(I hear your argument about the large volume)

Here is my count.

Here is my wave count

Originally Posted by Ilovepippin

Only in an impulse they cannot.
I a diagonal for instance they can.

However, the triangle that he is trying to label should be a 3-3-3-3-3 pattern. Only leading diagonals can have a 5-3-5-3-5 pattern.
So in this case the wave 4 label is not correct.

In DT Generally Wave 4 is greater than 35% of Wave 3's gross price movement.

Then end points of Waves 1 and 4 generally overlap.= 0.618-your previous Wave ..

I really forgot an Formula that works..

I will try to Remember it..
___________________________________________________________________
And Ilovepiping....


What Volume you Consider it.....

In Stocks Basically Every body Like to Low Range Price level Because they Can Meltple In a day or week .. if you have a Guildine ..

so what were the Volume size you see....That why you saying On low volume stocks EW is not recommended.


thanks

Guys,
I think we have already seen the euro strength for a while as the pattern on the daily seems complete - notice how wave [B] ends in the area of wave (B) of [A] which is the zone between 61.8 and 78.6 correction of wave [A]:
ps. The second chart is 4H
ps2. B in [ ] seems to appear only as small font - strange...

Originally Posted by Big Mike

Here is my take on EURUSD.
Since wave 1 was a leading diagonal, we should see a clear 5 wave structure decline bearish impulse wave.
(I hear your argument about the large volume)

Yes, we cannot exclude it Mike.
But when you look at Prechter's book it says that wave 2 after a leading diagonal has a deep retrace. Also a characteristic of a wave 2 is that it ends on low volume. These things did not occur here, so I am cautious.

Also, take a look at this daily chart, a trendline support has been reached.

Originally Posted by VINCY BALBOA

In DT Generally Wave 4 is greater than 35% of Wave 3's gross price movement.

Then end points of Waves 1 and 4 generally overlap.= 0.618-your previous Wave ..

I really forgot an Formula that works..

I will try to Remember it..
___________________________________________________________________
And Ilovepiping....


What Volume you Consider it.....

In Stocks Basically Every body Like to Low Range Price level Because they Can Meltple In a day or week .. if you have a Guildine ..

so what were the Volume size you see....That why you saying On low volume stocks EW is not recommended.


thanks

What I mean with volume in this case is the amount of people trading it. For Elliott Waves (EW) to work you need a large amount of people.

Originally Posted by freelancer

Guys,
I think we have already seen the euro strength for a while as the pattern on the daily seems complete - notice how wave [B] ends in the area of wave (B) of [A] which is the zone between 61.8 and 78.6 correction of wave [A]:
ps. The second chart is 4H
ps2. B in [ ] seems to appear only as small font - strange...

hi, freelancer, intresting idea.
however.
two things:

1) wave iv too small when compared to wave ii
2) the structure a - b - c, which makes the wave 2, quite unusual, which one is it ?

The chart of OIL shows pretty clear correction pattern.
Will it make new high ? Quite possible...
Will it make failed fifth ? Probable as well...
Or will me make the third (and the last) leg of correction lower ? Why not..

So, you pick your choice, if you trade OIL and/or USD.CAD...

Update on my USD/CAD chart.

Closed out position ....gained 50 pips. USD Index so far, failing to close above inverted Head and Shoulders neckline AND USD/CAD is failing to make a new high so far.

So all of my dollar longs are closed out at the moment.